EmailEconomic
Last Update: 10-May-12 09:09 ET
Initial Claims
Highlights
- The initial claims level declined from an upwardly revised 368,000 (from 365,000) for the week ending April 28 to 367,000 for the week ending May 5. The Briefing.com consensus pegged the initial claims level at 365,000.
- The continuing claims level fell from an upwardly revised 3.290 mln (from 3.276 mln) for the week ending April 21 to 3.229 mln for the week ending April 28. The consensus pegged the continuing claims level at 3.288 mln.
Key Factors
- For the past two weeks, the initial claims level has returned to its pre-Easter holiday level. It seems likely that the elevated claims levels during the first three weeks of April were the result of seasonal adjustment biases and not a change in overall labor conditions.
- This would suggest that payroll growth in May will likely exceed April levels but may not be as robust as what we saw from December through February.
Big Picture
- After a three week disruption in April caused by seasonal adjustment problems surrounding the Easter holiday, the initial claims level has returned to its previous trend.
| Category | May 5 | Apr 28 | Apr 21 | Apr 14 | Apr 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 367K | 368K | 392K | 389K | 388K |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg | 379K | 384K | 383K | 376K | 369K |
| Continued Benefits | 3229K | 3290K | 3329K | 3312K | |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg | 3290K | 3301K | 3315K | 3322K |
