Briefing.com


Initial Claims for the Week Ended Jun 21

Updated 03-Jul-08 08:33 ET






Highlights

  • New claims for unemployment remain remarkably stable.  The four-week moving average has been near 375,000 since early March.  The slight rise above this level the past two weeks is barely significant giventhe volatility in these numbers.  Labor market conditions remain weak, but nowhere near the 400,000 plus levels that were evident for almost all of 2002 and 2003.  Claims are likely to stay near current levels in the weeks ahead.
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Key Factors

    Big Picture

    • Unemployment claims are running at elevated levels, but well below levels experienced in the past two recessions.  The four-week moving average has been near 375,000 since early March.  This steady trend contrasts with the sharp increase in claims that occurred ahead of the 2001 recession, when claims spiked to over 400,000 per week by mid-April after the start of recession in January.  The current trend in claims is consistent with moderate declines in payrolls, but not at the rate of 150,000 per month or more seen in true recessions. 

    Category Jun 28 Jun 21 Jun 14 Jun 7 May 31
    Initial Claims 404K 388 384 386 359
    4-Wk Moving Avg 391 379 376 372 369
    Continued Benefits 3116 3135 3056 3136
    4-Wk Moving Avg 3111 3102 3096 3099