Thank you for your feedback and for sharing your thoughts. I think what we are seeing is following form with the argument I made in the February piece about the Fed’s asymmetric outcome. QE seemed destined to be ineffective because it is only beneficial for people who own stocks and/or a home. Not everyone does, which is why there is such a disconnect between the record highs...
While Ms. Yellen said QE can’t go on forever (so did Dallas Fed President Fisher), she also said there is no set timetable for cutting back on its asset purchases. In a liquidity-driven market, that is the only point that resonated since it meant for this market that the liquidity spigot is going to remain fully open for the time being. I’m not saying that’s right or wrong, but...
Great question. As many may have seen/heard,often times stocks have a tendency to "pin" to an option strike price on expiration, meaning the stock gravitates to a nearby strike as the close of expiration day trading approaches. This "pin" phenomenon arises from hedging pressures, which can create increased demand for the underlying
First, I do not think it is possible the Fed is directing QE3 money (or any money from QE1 and QE2 for that matter) to equities. There are too many intermediaries
along the way who could "spill the beans" if in fact this was being done. Bernanke, of course, has stated that he wants to use monetary policy to reflate asset prices
(i.e. stock and home values), so the Fed is indirectly...
The time period from Memorial Day to Labor Day is what is referred to as the "summer doldrums." More often than not, this is when the market goes through a corrective
or consolidation phase full of plenty of "whipsaw-ish" activity. It is not a cliché that the summer months are bad for the stock market -- it is a fact. The old adage
"sell in May and go away" is not just a cute aphorism...
Not much really. I have scaled back some of my positions (e.g.,WFC/PJ, BML/PQ, BBT/PC, ZB/PC) after seeing a big run up in price.
Got out of these right before the recent sharp pullback, which has been driven by concerns of a housing double-dip and general lackluster earnings of
banks. My main Preferred position at the moment is the JP Morgan 7.9% Fixed-to-Float...
I am not one to shy away from criticism and I thank you for your candid feedback. With all due respect, though, your response illustrates exactly why Briefing.com refrains from taking political positions.
True, the policies of any presidential administration will be a factor in promoting and/or dampening job growth, but as
a subscription-based business, it serves us little purpose...
Our view (or best guess) is that the U.S. will avoid a deflationary environment on account of a pickup in the labor market that should support
higher levels of aggregate demand which, in turn, will spur increased lending activity and rising wages (for private sector workers anyway).
The $64,000 question is, can the Fed adjust monetary policy at the right time, and in the proper...
When we refer to the equity risk premium, we are looking at the relative investment risk of equities versus Treasuries, and we do that in
accordance with the Fed model. That makes it a valuation metric in its truest sense, yet it appeals to us as a guide for assessing when there is
more or less opportunity investing in stocks. Our use of the Fed model...
Thank you for taking the time to read Briefing.com and for sharing your thoughts. The conclusions you have drawn based on the article you read
today are reasonable, though I suspect the time constraints I face in writing the daily Page One article prevented me from addressing all of the
points you might have thought would be addressed today, particularly...
Today’s Wall Street Journal shows the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 at 21.0. That is based on as-reported earnings from Birinyi Associates, Inc. Basically,
one can think of as-reported earnings as the “all in” earnings. It will include the cost of non-recurring items (eg. cost of shutting down a factory);
therefore, earnings will be depressed relative to operating...