It is not clear how S&P knows, but the company says there is precisely a one-in-three chance Greece will exit the euro. That is being taken as Gospel, and apparently the odds are worse than the market was expecting, so US stock futures indicate a lower open.
In other news, there is yet another survey of purchasing managers in Europe, this one covering the services rather than manufacturing sector. It implied a decline in activity for May. The Spanish Finance Minister said that Spain is having difficulty borrowing in the global financial markets. There are reports of an emergency call between finance ministers from the G7 (world's largest economies) that will occur later today.
In short, more of the same. More distressing news from Europe. More anxiety. More downward pressure on US stock prices.
The small amount of corporate news this morning is being swamped by the macro-economic issues in Europe. It is worth noting, however, that the WSJ is reporting that Apple will replace Google maps on its iPhone with its own maps. Maps apparently have a large impact on ad revenue.
The US gets its own non-government-produced survey of services-based purchasing managers at 10:00 ET. A slight decline for the May index is expected to about a 53.1 level. A weaker number could rattle the markets.
In one small piece of goods news, it appears as if the MF Global trustee will sue Jon Corzine. There is no greater moral hazard than allowing the head of a trading company to use customer funds to seek personal reward. JP Morgan made a bad bet with its own money, and Facebook and Morgan Stanley were perhaps too greedy with the IPO, but what MF Global did was far worse. Investor confidence in the markets and justice require that the MF Global situation be fully investigated and customer accounts be made whole, whatever the consequences for even those with the strongest of political connections.