After Hours Report

The stock market turned lower again this week as rising oil prices reshaped the inflation outlook, Federal Reserve expectations, and overall market sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average each declined 2.1%, with all three major averages breaking further below key technical levels by Friday.

The week began on a more constructive note, as a pullback in crude oil helped fuel a broad rebound and briefly pushed the Nasdaq Composite back above its 200-day moving average. However, that optimism faded quickly as oil resumed its climb and geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz intensified.

By midweek, the focus shifted squarely to inflation and monetary policy. A hotter-than-expected PPI report reinforced concerns that price pressures remain sticky—even before factoring in the recent surge in energy prices. Those concerns were further cemented following the FOMC decision.

While the Fed left rates unchanged, the updated Summary of Economic Projections showed higher inflation expectations, with PCE rising to 2.7% from 2.4%. Importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the possibility of future rate hikes was at least discussed, signaling a more cautious stance than markets had anticipated. As a result, expectations for rate cuts were pushed further out, with markets even assigning a small probability to a hike by year-end.

That repricing was clearly reflected in the Treasury market. Yields moved higher throughout the week, extending a multi-week selloff driven by inflation concerns tied to energy prices. By Friday, the 2-year note yield had risen 16 basis points on the week to 3.89%, while the 10-year note yield climbed 10 basis points to 4.39%.

Equities struggled under the weight of that shift. Growth and rate-sensitive sectors led the downside, with consumer discretionary (-2.7%), information technology (-1.9%), and communication services (-1.5%) all posting notable losses. Real estate (-4.1%) and utilities (-5.0%) were among the worst performers as rising yields pressured valuation-sensitive areas of the market.

The energy sector stood out as the clear outperformer, gaining 2.8% for the week as crude oil climbed back toward the $100 per barrel mark. In contrast, consumer staples (-4.5%) and materials (-4.5%) lagged amid broader risk-off sentiment and commodity-related volatility.

Friday’s session captured the prevailing tone: oil prices moved higher again on escalating geopolitical developments, Treasury yields jumped, and equities sold off broadly. The S&P 500 narrowly held above the 6,500 level, but the continued break below its 200-day moving average reflects weakening technical momentum and deteriorating sentiment.

Ultimately, this week reinforced a critical shift in the market narrative. What began as an oil-driven inflation scare has evolved into a broader repricing of monetary policy expectations. As long as crude remains elevated and volatile, markets are likely to stay under pressure, with inflation fears and a “higher-for-longer”—or even “higher-again”—Fed outlook driving price action.

• S&P Mid Cap 400: -1.3% week-to-date
• Russell 2000: -1.7% week-to-date
• S&P 500: -1.9% week-to-date
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.1% week-to-date
• DJIA: -2.1% week-to-date

Monday:

Stocks hit the ground running to start the week, with the S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.8%) taking back a meaningful chunk of the previous week's losses. The Nasdaq Composite closed above its 200-day moving average (22,191.85), which it closed below last week. 

The market was supported by some relief in oil prices today after a surge past the $100 per barrel mark weighed heavily on stocks last week. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement to come as soon as this week. While oil price action was still relatively choppy today, optimism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could meaningfully pick up in the near term helped crude oil futures settle today's session $5.26 lower (-5.4%) at $93.35 per barrel. 

Strength was broad throughout the session, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing higher. 

The information technology sector (+1.4%) led the advance, supported by solid gains across semiconductor names. NVIDIA (NVDA 183.19, +2.94, +1.63%) garnered a fair share of attention today as the company's CEO, Jensen Huang, delivered his keynote address at NVIDIA's GTC conference. Notably, Mr. Huang said that last year he saw $500 billion of purchase orders for Blackwell and Rubin by 2026, and he now sees at least $1 trillion by 2027.

Memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 703.63, +42.01, +6.35%) and Western Digital (WDC 286.21, +13.92, +5.11%) finished with even wider gains, with Micron (MU 441.80, +15.67, +3.68%) also trading higher before its earnings release tomorrow after the close. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 2.0% higher. 

In other AI-related news, Meta Platforms (META 627.45, +13.74, +2.24%) was a mega-cap standout today after Reuters reported the company is planning to lay off up to 20% of its workforce as AI costs rise. The communication services sector posted a gain of 1.0%.

The consumer discretionary sector (+1.3%) was another top mover, also supported by strength in its mega-cap components. Shares of Amazon (AMZN 211.74, +4.07, +1.96%) rose to session highs after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said OpenAI will be brought to AWS.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+1.2%) notched a solid gain today, though it remains 7.1% lower on a year-to-date basis. 

Elsewhere in the sector, cruise lines such as Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 19.84, +0.98, +5.17%) outperformed amid the retreat in oil prices.

Airlines such as United Airlines (UAL 90.28, +3.68, +4.25%) logged similar gains, adding to strength in the industrials sector (+0.9%). 

Meanwhile, Mosaic (MOS 27.67, -1.64, -5.60%) and CF Industries (CF 122.37, -7.20, -5.56%) were the worst-performing S&P 500 names, giving back some of their recent strength as supply chain fears around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recently sent the stocks surging. 

Food and alcohol stocks were also relative laggards today, keeping the consumer staples sector (+0.1%) near its flatline despite a solid move in Dollar Tree (DLTR 114.36, +6.90, +6.42%) after the company narrowly topped EPS estimates but issued an encouraging comparable sales forecast. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.7%) notched gains similar to those across the major averages. 

All told, today's session marked a solid rebound from previous weakness that saw the major averages test their 200-day moving averages. While a meaningful retreat in oil prices provided the catalyst for a broad buy-the-dip effort, the war in Iran remains without a clear resolution in sight, which could prompt more volatility in the near term. The market will also navigate the March FOMC decision on Wednesday (along with a plethora of other central banks this week), with investors eager to see the effect that the recent surge in oil prices has on the summary of economic projections and the Fed's expected policy outlook. 

U.S. Treasuries had a good run today, logging most of their gains in the overnight trade as oil prices came down. There was some giveback during the cash session, but ultimately securities across the curve regrouped and settled today near their best levels of the session in terms of price and yield. The 2-year note yield settled down five basis points to 3.68%, and the 10-year note yield settled down seven basis points to 4.22%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• March Empire State Manufacturing -0.2 (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior 7.1
• February Industrial Production 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.7%, February Capacity Utilization 76.3% (Briefing.com consensus 76.0%); Prior was revised to 76.3% from 76.2%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it marked the fourth straight monthly increase in industrial production, although that streak masks some otherwise tepid output. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was just 1.4% above its year-earlier level.
• March NAHB Housing Market Index 38; Prior was revised to 37 from 36

Tuesday:

Stocks traded cautiously today amid a rise in oil prices and in anticipation of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, with the S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA finishing a touch off their session lows. 

Oil saw some gains this morning following headlines that Iran struck a natural gas field in the UAE and targeted another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The market showed some resilience to the rebound in oil prices, opening to broad gains that were steadily eroded throughout the morning. Crude oil futures settled today's session $2.70 higher (+2.9%) at $96.05 per barrel.

The energy sector (+1.2%) notched the widest gain today, with Halliburton (HAL 35.64, +1.48, +4.33%) and APA Corp. (APA 35.86, +1.32, +3.84%) leading the advance. 

While the major averages gave back most of their early gains, eight total S&P 500 sectors managed to notch a higher finish today, keeping with yesterday's trend of broad strength. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%) outperformed, boosted by a nice gain in Amazon (AMZN 215.20, +3.46, +1.63%), which was a mega-cap standout today. The stock reached session highs this afternoon after Reuters reported that CEO Andy Jassy expects AI to double AWS projections to $600 billion by 2036.

Travel and leisure names such as Expedia Group (EXPE 241.25, +9.79, +4.23%) and Booking Holdings (BKNG 4442.33, +149.31, +3.48%) added support as the group rebounds from recent weakness tied to geopolitical and energy volatility. 

Alphabet (GOOG 309.41, +4.99, +1.64%) was another mega-cap standout, helping the communication services sector (+0.7%) finish near the top of the leaderboard as several other sectors trended lower later in the session. 

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.2%) finished well off its session highs, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.5%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.3%). 

Several of the ETF's weaker components resided in the information technology sector (+0.2%), which finished just modestly higher after opening to solid gains this morning. NVIDIA (NVDA 181.93, -1.29, -0.70%) saw some profit-taking following yesterday's GTC conference developments that featured CEO Jensen Huang's projections for at least $1 trillion in revenue opportunity through 2027 for Blackwell and Rubin chips.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.5%) still managed a higher finish as memory storage names such as Western Digital (WDC 313.81, +27.60, +9.64%) and Micron (MU 461.69, +19.89, +4.50%) traded sharply higher again today. 

Software stocks were also relatively solid today, with the iShares GS Software (IGV 85.52, +0.57, +0.67%) finishing 0.7% higher.

Meanwhile, the health care sector (-0.9%) closed with the widest loss today as Eli Lilly (LLY 930.51, -58.61, -5.93%) lagged after HSBC downgraded the stock to Reduce from Hold, with a target price of $850. The defensive consumer staples (-0.5%) and utilities (-0.3%) sectors also moved lower this afternoon after trading flattish for most of the session.

Other noteworthy corporate developments include the outperformance of airline stocks after Delta Air Lines (DAL 64.82, +3.98, +6.54%) raised its Q1 guidance, while Uber (UBER 77.79, +3.13, +4.19%) traded higher after Reuters reported that the company plans to launch a robotaxi service that runs on NVIDIA's self-driving platform. Those developments helped offset weakness in the industrials sector (+0.3%), which faced some profit-taking in its defense names today. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.9%) outperformed the major averages.

Ultimately, the market held up reasonably well in the face of higher oil prices, but the pullback from early highs highlights a more cautious bias. Focus now shifts to tomorrow's FOMC decision, where investors will be looking for clarity on how recent energy developments factor into the Fed's outlook.

U.S. Treasuries saw yields fall back from higher levels in the overnight trade and close the regular session slightly lower than yesterday's settlement. Worries about slower growth and hesitation in front of Wednesday's FOMC decision and press conference ultimately won out as the Treasury market's driving influence. The 2-year note yield settled down one basis point to 3.67% and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.20%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• February Pending Home Sales increased 1.8% (Briefing.com consensus: -0.8%; prior revised to -1.0% from -0.8%)

Wednesday:

The stock market had an eventful session, with inflation readings, volatile oil prices, and developments from today's FOMC meeting putting broad pressure on the market. The S&P 500 (-1.4%) finished a touch above its 200-day moving average of 6,615, while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%) and DJIA (-1.6%) violated their respective 200-day moving averages. 

Stocks opened to more modest losses following the release of the February PPI (0.7%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), which fueled inflation concerns, especially since the index does not yet reflect the recent surge in oil prices. Oil was also higher this morning amid reports that Iran threatened numerous Gulf energy sites following an Israeli strike on an Iranian gas field, though the action was choppy, and crude oil futures settled today's session $0.63 lower (-0.7%) at $95.42 per barrel. 

While there was some modest relief in oil prices, inflation concerns took center stage this afternoon with the March FOMC meeting. The FOMC voted 11-1 to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% (Fed Governor Miran preferred a 25 bps cut), which was widely expected. 

What the market was particularly attuned to was the updated summary of economic projections (SEP), which showed a bump in the median estimate for change in real GDP to 2.4% from 2.3% and PCE inflation to 2.7% from 2.4%. There was no change in the median estimate of one rate cut this year and one rate cut next year, although the longer-run estimate for the fed funds rate ticked up to 3.10% from 3.00%.

The market's initial reaction to these updates was fairly muted, though stocks moved lower in broad fashion during Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Mr. Powell noted that officials are still looking for goods inflation to come down as tariffs work their way through the system and that the higher inflation expectations are not solely due to rising oil prices. 

Mr. Powell also warned, "The possibility that our next move might be an increase did come up at the meeting, as it did the last meeting. The vast majority of participants don't see that as their base case."

Ultimately, today's meeting weighed on stocks, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing at session lows in negative territory. Eight of those sectors finished with losses of 1.0% or wider. 

The consumer staples (-2.4%) and consumer discretionary (-2.3%) sectors finished at the bottom of today's leaderboard amid the focus on inflation, with nearly all of their components trading lower. lululemon athletica (LULU 165.39, +6.12, +3.84%) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM 184.04, +1.87, +1.03%) managed a higher finish after their earnings reports but were well off their session highs by the close. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (-1.2%) was a relative outperformer this morning, though it faced increasing pressure this afternoon. Software stocks were a point of weakness, with the iShares GS Software ETF finishing 1.4% lower, while NVIDIA (NVDA 180.40, -1.53, -0.84%) and other chipmakers ceded their early gains. Micron (MU 461.73, +0.04, +0.01%) traded flat ahead of its earnings after the close. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.7%) finished in line with the major averages, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.9%) closed with a more modest loss. 

Ultimately, the combination of sticky inflation and policy uncertainty leaves the market vulnerable, especially with key technical levels now in focus. Continued volatility in energy prices remains an added headwind for equities.

U.S. Treasuries also had a tough day, and yields rose across the curve. The 2-year note yield settled up eight basis points to 3.75%, and the 10-year note yield settled up six basis points to 4.26%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.9%; Prior was revised to 3.2% from
• February PPI 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.5%, February Core PPI 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.8%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the uptick in producer prices was seen in both goods (+1.1%) and services (+0.5%), and the added point is that this higher inflation occurred before the war with Iran and subsequent surge in energy prices, which will foment concerns about a worsening inflation situation.
• January Factory Orders 0.1%; Prior was revised to -0.4% from -0.7%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is the tepid level of business spending in January, evidenced by the 0.1% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

Thursday:

The stock market saw an extension of yesterday's losses, though some late-session geopolitical developments helped the major averages finish well off their session lows. The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (-0.4%) finished just modestly lower, though the S&P 500 failed to close above its 200-day moving average (6,619). 

The S&P 500 moved above the key technical level during the brief stint that the major averages spent in positive territory late in the session. The move was prompted by commentary from Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who stated at a press conference that Iran "can no longer enrich uranium" or "manufacture ballistic missiles," according to The Times of Israel. Mr. Netanyahu also noted that Israel is helping U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the war will be over sooner than people think.

Crude oil, which settled today's session $0.29 higher (+0.3%) at $95.71 per barrel, moved lower in response, currently trading $1.32 (-1.4%) lower at $94.14 per barrel. Oil traded higher early in the session following a Wall Street Journal report that Iranian missiles caused extensive damage to a liquefied natural gas hub in Qatar. 

While stocks finished off their session lows, the energy sector (+1.5%) was the only S&P 500 sector to secure a gain today. 

The top-weighted information technology sector was able to finish flat after trading with a modest loss for most of the session. The sector was supported by another strong performance from Ciena (CIEN 412.66, +27.40, +7.11%), which extended its week-to-date gain to 22.3%.

Semiconductor stocks also performed relatively well, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index finishing 0.8% higher. Micron (MU 444.27, -17.46, -3.78%) was a laggard after its earnings report despite blowing away analyst expectations but succumbed to profit-taking after a strong rally this year and skepticism around massive capital expenditure plans. 

The financials sector also managed to finish on its flat line, with relative strength across major banking names. 

Meanwhile, the materials sector (-1.6%) faced the widest retreat. Newmont Corporation (NEM 99.13, -7.41, -6.96%) was among the worst-performing S&P 500 names today as gold futures settled $290.50 lower (-5.9%) at $4,605.70 per ounce. 

Continued geopolitical volatility around shipping in the Middle East also weighed on fertilizer names such as Mosaic (MOS 26.20, -1.58, -5.69%). 

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) also saw an extension of yesterday's weakness, with Tesla's (TSLA 380.30, -12.48, -3.18%) weakness overshadowing mixed strength across the sector's other components. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) and DJIA (+0.3%) outperformed the major averages, ending the day in positive territory following late-session commentary from Prime Minister Netanyahu. 

The late-session bounce highlights the market's sensitivity to geopolitical headlines, but the S&P 500's failure to close back above its 200-day moving average suggests conviction remains limited as the market adjusts to the new rate cut outlook, which was significantly pushed back after yesterday's FOMC meeting. Ongoing volatility in energy prices is likely to keep investors on edge in the near term. 

U.S. Treasuries had a rough overnight session, reacting negatively to rising oil prices and the stark realization that rate cuts from the Fed (and other central banks) are going to be pushed out due to the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran (the BOJ, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and ECB followed the Fed in voting to keep their policy rates unchanged). There was a nice reversal from early highs, however, driven by technical buying support and short-covering activity. The 2-year note yield settled up eight basis points to 3.83%, and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.28%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 205K (Briefing.com consensus 215K); Prior 213K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.857 mln; Prior was revised to 1.847 mln from 1.850 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial jobless claims will keep the Fed preoccupied for now with the inflation side of its mandate, which is to say it won't be inclined to cut rates.
• March Philadelphia Fed Index 18.1 (Briefing.com consensus 4.7); Prior 16.3
• January New Home Sales 587K (Briefing.com consensus 719K); Prior was revised to 712K from 745K
  • The key takeaway from the report is that sharp declines were registered in all regions, despite declines in both median and average selling prices, which suggests some demand attrition in the face of elevated mortgage rates and perhaps burgeoning concerns about job security.
• January Wholesale Inventories -0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from 0.2%
• January Leading Economic Index -0.1%; Prior -0.2%

Friday:

Stocks ended a tough week on a lower note, as rising oil prices and Treasury yields continued to exert broad pressure on the market. The S&P 500 (-1.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.0%), and DJIA (-1.0%) finished the week lower across the board, plunging further beneath their 200-day moving averages. The S&P 500 just narrowly avoided closing below the 6,500 mark (6,506), which would have been the first close below that level since early September.

Today's pressure was more or less a continuation of the factors that have pressured the market over the past several weeks. Oil climbed back above the $98 per barrel mark, with crude oil futures settling today's session $2.41 higher (+2.5%) at $98.12 per barrel. Stocks bounced off of session lows late in yesterday's session after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters that the war in Iran would be over sooner than expected, but today's developments saw that optimism fade. 

Stocks moved off of their opening highs this morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional troops to the Middle East. CBS News reported later in the afternoon that the Pentagon has made plans to use ground forces inside of Iran. 

Concerns that the conflict will last longer than expected and continue to disrupt oil markets are weighing on inflation expectations and, in turn, the market’s rate cut expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a roughly 25% probability to a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. 

While stocks opened mixed today, nearly every corner of the market suffered losses, with some notable retreats in the mix. 

The utilities sector (-4.1%) faced the widest loss, with several electric utilities companies such as Vistra Corp. (VST 146.20, -21.17, -12.65%) and Constellation Energy (CEG 281.99, -34.48, -10.90%) facing double-digit losses. 

The real estate sector (-3.2%) also shed several percentage points today, which coincided with another sharp move higher in Treasury yields (the 10-year note yield settled up 11 basis points to 4.39%). 

Meanwhile, the information technology (-2.2%), consumer discretionary (-1.9%), and communication services (-1.5%) sectors faced pressure across their mega-cap components, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finishing 1.8% lower. 

Elsewhere in the technology sector, Super Micro Computer (SMCI 20.53, -10.26, -33.32%) plummeted today after CNBC reported that a few employees were charged with smuggling chips into China.

Even the energy sector logged a flat finish, giving back its earlier gains throughout the afternoon. 

Only the financials sector (+0.2%) escaped with a gain. Major banking names traded mostly higher, offsetting renewed weakness across asset managers. Insurance names such as Marsh McLennan (MRSH 176.48, +5.57, +3.26%) and Aon (AON 325.63, +8.64, +2.73%) outperformed. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-2.2%) lagged as risk sentiment took another step back today. 

All told, this week's price action reflects a market increasingly weighed down by the combined pressures of rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical tensions. With the major averages breaking below key technical levels, sentiment has deteriorated as investors reassess the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

U.S. Treasuries faced more pressure on Friday, making for a continuation of a three-week selling streak that has been spurred by inflationary concerns stemming from the sharp rise in the price of oil and uncertain maritime security in the Persian Gulf's shipping lanes. The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.89% (+16 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up 11 basis points to 4.39% (+10 basis points this week). 

There was no economic data of note today.

• S&P Mid Cap 400: -0.3% YTD
• Russell 2000: -1.8% YTD
• S&P 500: -5.0% YTD
• DJIA: -5.2% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -6.9% YTD