After Hours Report

The stock market finished the week lower, with the S&P 500 (-2.0% WTD), Nasdaq Composite (-2.7% WTD), and DJIA (-1.9% WTD) retreating beneath their 50-day moving averages after several days of choppy trading. Smaller-cap indexes were more resilient, with the Russell 2000 (-0.8% WTD) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.7% WTD) posting relatively modest declines. Mega-cap growth lagged, as the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF lost 2.8% WTD, reflecting continued caution among investors around the largest names.

NVIDIA (NVDA) faced its own selling pressure despite delivering strong earnings beat, which fostered a sharp reveresal of early gains on Thursday. The stock finished the week down 2.8%. The broader information technology sector (-4.7% WTD) led losses, while consumer discretionary (-3.3% WTD) also lagged. By contrast, health care (+1.8% WTD), communication services (+3.0% WTD), and consumer staples (+0.8% WTD) provided pockets of strength, as investors rotated into sectors viewed as more defensive or insulated from the recent AI and mega-cap volatility.

Friday’s session offered a partial reprieve as comments from New York Fed President John Williams lifted expectations for a December rate cut. The major averages finished near session highs, and mid- and small-cap stocks outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+2.8% Friday) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.4% Friday) rebounding more sharply. Even so, the week’s results underscore that the market remains in a risk-off posture, with mega-cap and tech leadership still fragile.

Overall, the week reflected a market balancing between optimism for potential Fed easing and caution over stretched valuations and recent momentum unwind. While rate-cut chatter offered intermittent relief, broader weakness in tech and mega-cap stocks weighed on the major averages, leaving the market in a state of ongoing rotation and selective strength.

• S&P Mid Cap 400: -0.7% WTD
• Russell 2000: -0.8% WTD
• DJIA: -1.9% WTD
• S&P 500: -2.0% WTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.7% WTD

Monday:

The stock market retreated today as the recent momentum unwind ultimately pressured the market lower after some choppy action this morning, with the S&P 500 (-0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%), and DJIA (-1.2%) closing below their 50-day moving averages for the first time since April. 

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were able to reclaim their 50-day moving averages after slipping beneath them in the late morning, though stocks faced a steeper pullback in the afternoon hours, which sent the DJIA beneath the key support level as well. 

Dampened sentiment around the AI trade was once again at the core of today's retreat as NVIDIA (NVDA 186.60, -3.57, -1.88%) moved lower after Peter Thiel's fund, Thiel Macro LLC, fully divested its ~537,742-share stake in NVIDIA during the third quarter.

Chipmaker names struggled across the board as the PHLX Semiconductor Index closed with a 1.6% loss, widening its month-to-date slide to 7.2%. 

Elsewhere in the information technology sector (-1.4%), Apple (AAPL 267.46, -4.95, -1.82%) moved lower after Financial Times reported that CEO Tim Cook may step down as early as next year. 

Meanwhile, Dell (DELL 122.48, -11.28, -8.43%) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 21.23, -1.60, -7.01%) finished with the widest losses in the sector after receiving downgrades from Morgan Stanley. 

Today's retreat became increasingly broad-based as the session progressed, as a total of nine S&P 500 sectors finished with losses, five of which fell more than 1.0%. 

The financials sector (-1.9%) ended up with the widest loss, facing pressure in nearly all of its components. American Express (AXP 341.25, -15.93, -4.46%) was a laggard after reporting its October card metrics, which saw a 0.3% increase in consumer card member loan write-offs, while U.S. Small Business Card member loans net write-offs increased 0.1%.

Digital cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global (COIN 263.95, -20.05, -7.06%) was among the worst-performing S&P 500 names as Bitcoin continued its recent slide, with today's loss wiping out its year-to-date gain. 

As for today's slim batch of winners, the communication services sector (+1.1%) led for the entirety of the session as Alphabet (GOOG 285.60, +8.62, +3.11%) moved higher after Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B 503.29, -5.65, -1.11%) disclosed a new $4.9 billion position in the company. 

Meanwhile, the utilities sector (+0.8%) also managed a gain as investors sought more defensive positions. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.8%) faced outsized losses as the market displayed a firm risk-off posturing today. 

The VIX Volatility Index surged 14.3% to 22.67, implying a heightened sense of uncertainty in the market. 

On the macro front, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson (voting FOMC member) struck a similarly cautious tone to other recent Fed speakers. Mr. Jefferson said in a speech this morning that he backed last month's 25-basis-point rate cut but emphasized that "the evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate."

Just before the close, Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) said in a speech that he supports another rate cut in December for risk management reasons. The headline helped stocks finish off of their session lows and saw the market's implied odds of a December rate cut increase slightly from earlier levels. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 44.9% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut in December, little changed from Friday's 44.4% odds. 

Ultimately today's action reflected a market still struggling to find its footing as leadership rotates and sentiment resets. The major averages closing beneath their 50-day averages marks a significant break from a trend that has persisted since the market began its rebound effort in April. With NVIDIA's earnings and key economic data on deck later this week, the next few sessions will go a long way in determining whether this pullback deepens or simply marks another shakeout in the broader uptrend.

U.S. Treasuries vacillated today but maintained a mostly positive bias. The 2-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.61%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.13%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• November NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Actual 18.7; Briefing.com consensus: 6.1; Prior 10.7)
• Total construction spending increased 0.2% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus: 0.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase (from -0.1%) in July. Total private construction was up 0.3% month-over-month, while total public construction was flat month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was down 1.6%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the increase in spending came solely from the residential side; unfortunately, that did not include new single-family construction activity. The strength was concentrated in new multifamily construction.

Tuesday:

The stock market saw some choppy action in today's trade, and while some pockets of the market posted solid performances, lingering weakness across tech and mega-cap names saw the S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%), and DJIA (-1.1%) close below their 50-day moving averages for the second consecutive day. 

As many as nine S&P 500 sectors held losses at once during session lows, while nine sectors held gains at session highs. Ultimately, five sectors finished higher, but the underperformance of the consumer discretionary (-2.5%) and information technology (-1.7%) sectors was prominent through the entirety of the session. 

Home Depot (HD 336.48, -21.55, -6.02%) held the widest loss in the consumer discretionary sector after missing EPS estimates and lowering its FY26 guidance, which weighed on other retailers in the sector. 

Amazon (AMZN 222.55, -10.32, -4.43%) also lagged after Rothschild & Co. downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. 

The firm also downgraded Microsoft (MSFT 493.79, -13.70, -2.70%) to Neutral from Buy, which set the tone for early weakness in the technology sector. 

The sector faced pressure in its chipmaker components, which sent the PHLX Semiconductor Index 2.3% lower, widening its week-to-date loss past 9.0%. NVIDIA (NVDA 181.37, -5.23, -2.80%) traded lower ahead of its earnings report after the close tomorrow, while names like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 230.29, -10.23, -4.25%) and Micron (MU 228.50, -13.45, -5.56%) faced even steeper losses. 

Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOG 284.96, -0.64, -0.22%) faced some choppy action today, holding gains wider than 1.0% before ultimately closing below its flatline. Loop Capital upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold. 

Despite Alphabet ceding its gain, the communication services sector (+0.1%) still finished in positive territory. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 23.69, +0.95, +4.18%) led the way as it prepares to receive bids from prospective buyers, while Netflix (NFLX 114.09, +3.80, +3.44%) saw some buying interest after its 10-to-1 stock split took effect yesterday. 

The health care sector (+0.5%) unsurprisingly finished with one of the widest gains as investors continue to rotate into the sector amid valuation concerns that now surround the AI trade. 

Medtronic (MDT 100.80, +4.52, +4.69%) paced the gains after a solid beat-and-raise earnings report, while Merck (MRK 96.43, +3.57, +3.84%) finished higher after announcing it will increase its quarterly dividend to $0.85 per share from $0.81 per share. 

Elsewhere in the sector, managed care names including UnitedHealth (UNH 313.58, -6.94, -2.17%) and Elevance Health (ELV 324.53, -6.38, -1.93%) traded lower after President Trump lambasted health insurance companies in a Truth Social post this morning. 

The energy sector (+0.6%) ended up with the widest gain as crude oil futures settled today's session $0.76 higher (+1.3%) at $60.68 per barrel. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) shook off some early sluggishness to the tune of solid gains. 

On the macro front, December rate cut expectations got a modest boost from the unexpected overnight release of some October weekly jobless claims data. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 were 232K (prior revised to 219K from 218K); continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 11 were 1947K (prior revised to 1916K from 1926K). The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 51.1% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, up from 42.4% yesterday. 

Ultimately, today's action reflected a further rotation out of AI and mega-cap names and into more value-oriented positions. While breadth figures ended the day modestly positive, and sector strength was an almost even split, a 1.4% slide in the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF was more than enough to facilitate losses at the index level. 

The AI trade continues to stumble ahead of NVIDIA's earnings release tomorrow after the close, as not even headlines of a partnership between NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Anthropic, or the news that the U.S. is working on the sale of advanced chips to Saudi Arabia, triggered any buying interest. 

U.S. Treasuries traded firmly with a bull steepener trade in play, having digested several economic releases today. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.58%, and the 10-year note yield settled down one basis point to 4.12%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 232K; Prior was revised to 219K from 218K
• Weekly Continuing Claims 1.947 mln; Prior was revised to 1.916 mln from 1.926 mln
• August Factory Orders 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%); Prior -1.3%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that business spending remained on an upswing, evidenced by back-to-back increases in new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, in July and August.
• November NAHB Housing Market Index 38 (Briefing.com consensus 36); Prior 37

Wednesday:

The stock market saw some choppy action today in response to an abundance of catalysts, though a rebound in sentiment across tech names ahead of NVIDIA's (NVDA 186.52, +5.16, +2.85%) earnings ultimately saw the S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (+0.1%) close higher. 

Mega-cap and tech names got off to a solid start as Alphabet (GOOG 292.99, +8.03, +2.82%) traded to a new record high, pushing the communication services sector (+0.7%) to an early gain that exceeded 3.0%. 

Concurrently, the information technology sector (+0.9%) held a gain just past 2.0% that was supported by a nearly 3.0% surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.8%) ahead of NVIDIA's earnings. Broadcom (AVGO 354.42, +13.92, +4.09%) was a standout throughout the session. 

While there were some early pockets of weakness in the broader market that kept the DJIA near its baseline, the market took a clear downward turn just after midday as the BLS announced it will not release the October Employment Situation Report. The BLS also confirmed that the September JOLTS report will not be published, and the October JOLTS report will be released Tuesday, December 9. Meanwhile, the November Employment Situation Report will be published Tuesday, December 16.

Expectations for a December rate cut fell sharply as labor-market concerns have been the main catalyst behind the Fed's recent easing. The decision to withhold or delay key data releases is seen as further clouding the already murky labor market picture.

Following the announcement, the CME FedWatch tool lowered its odds for a 25-basis point rate cut to around 38%, down from 50.1% yesterday. 

Stocks slipped in response, with the major averages collectively moving into negative territory for the day. At one point, the communication services sector was the only S&P 500 sector to hold a gain, as even the information technology sector ceded the entirety of its 2.0% advance. 

The market hit session lows around 12:45 PM ET before rebounding. Stocks traded in a choppy fashion before hitting another roadblock at 2:00 PM ET, this time in the form of the October FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes did not reveal any particularly new opinions from Fed officials regarding a December cut. Some participants see that a December rate cut could be the appropriate course of action, some participants believe keeping the target rate unchanged for the rest of the year is likely most appropriate, and nearly all expressed a need to proceed with caution as both sides of the Fed's dual mandate come under pressure. 

Nonetheless, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated another decline in the likelihood of a December rate cut, which fell to 31.6% this afternoon. At the moment, a 33.5% probability is attached to the Fed cutting again in December. 

Stocks hit another trough before mounting a turnaround effort at 3:00 PM ET. This would prove to be the last large swing of the day and helped the S&P 500 snap a four-day losing streak. 

NVIDIA helped pace the gains, trading toward session highs late in the afternoon as sentiment improved ahead of its earnings release. The information technology (+0.9%) and communication services (+0.7%) sectors finished at the top of a leaderboard that ultimately saw six sectors close higher. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.1%) eked out a gain as Amazon (AMZN 222.69, +0.14, +0.06%) closed slightly higher, while Lowe's (LOW 228.40, +8.83, +4.02%) added support following an upbeat earnings report. 

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF closed with a 0.8% gain, its best finish since last Monday. Today's session was the first in which the major averages closed higher across the board since last Monday as well, with a rebound in confidence across semiconductor and mega-cap names playing a pivotal role in restoring momentum. 

All eyes now turn to NVIDIA's earnings release. If the world's largest company delivers a strong report and, more importantly, issues strong guidance, the market could be poised for a stronger rebound from its recent slide. 

U.S. Treasuries had a quiet showing on Wednesday, resulting in slim losses across the curve. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.60%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.13%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• MBA Mortgage Applications Index -5.2% wk/wk, with refinance applications down 7% and purchase applications down 2%
• The trade deficit was $59.6 billion in August (Briefing.com consensus: -$61.0 billion) versus an upwardly revised $78.2 billion (from $78.3 billion) in July. That was the result of exports being $0.2 billion more than July exports and imports being $18.4 billion less than July imports.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it will factor favorably into the Q3 GDP report, given the positive contribution from the net export component.

Thursday:

The stock market had a tumultuous day as equities faced a sharp intraday reversal, which wiped out the early gains that followed NVIDIA's (NVDA 180.64, -5.88, -3.15%) stellar earnings report. 

Investors eagerly anticipated results from the world's largest company as the AI trade's momentum has stalled as of late. NVIDIA delivered on the hype, cruising past earnings expectations and delivering robust Q4 guidance. 

The S&P 500 (-1.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.2%), and DJIA (-0.8%) held gains wider than 1.0%, pushing them back above their 50-day moving averages, which had been violated earlier in the week. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-4.8%) and Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-2.0%) were both up around 3.0% as NVIDIA's gain widened to nearly 5.0%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher as the broader market rallied with strong leadership from the market's largest names. 

Stocks hit a peak just before 11:00 ET, before a relatively sharp sell-off ensued. Some profit-taking was to be expected with such a large swing across the mega-caps, but the retreat broadened to nearly every corner of the market. 

The information technology sector (-2.7%) was hit the hardest, charting session lows through the close as the sector nearly inversed its early gain. Micron (MU 201.37, -24.55, -10.87%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 206.02, -17.53, -7.84%) were among the names (along with NVIDIA) to push the PHLX Semiconductor Index 4.8% lower, while Oracle (ORCL 210.69, -14.84, -6.58%) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 155.74, -9.68, -5.85%) also faced outsized losses. 

The industrials (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.7%), materials (-1.6%), and communication services (-1.1%) sectors also faced considerable losses. 

Only the consumer staples sector (+1.1%) closed with a gain today. The sector was boosted from the open by Walmart (WMT 107.11, +6.50, +6.46%) after a solid beat-and-raise earnings report, while the defensive nature of the sector kept it largely resilient to the broader market pullback. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.6%) faced losses similar to that of their larger-cap counterparts. 

Today's batch of economic data painted a mixed picture of the labor market. The September Employment Report saw a 119,000 increase in payrolls, but also included a downward revision to -4,000 for August. There was also an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.3%, so the overall report was not as strong as the headline reading suggested. This will be the final jobs report ahead of the December FOMC meeting since the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the November report until December 16.

All told, today's data facilitated a modest increase in expectations for a December rate cut, though it still remains an unlikely occurrence. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 39.6% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, up from 30.1% yesterday. 

Today's trade ultimately gives credence to concerns that the most recent run to record highs was too reliant on mega-cap leadership and the promise of an additional easing from the Fed. NVIDIA's inability to sustain gains after a blowout earnings report shows that the market's sentiment around the AI trade is still skewed to the downside, keeping the major averages from holding above the critical 50-day moving average level. 

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Thursday, recovering their slim midweek losses. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 3.56%, and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.11%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• The September employment report, which is certainly a lagging indicator this time, suggested the labor market was not falling apart in September. In fact, nonfarm payroll gains accelerated to 119,000 after declining by 4,000 in August.
  • This wasn't an abjectly strong report, nor was it an abjectly weak report. We wouldn't call it "just right" either, not with the uptick in the unemployment rate and the stalling out of average weekly hours worked, but the key takeaway is that this report wouldn't be enough to convince the more hawkish-minded Fed officials to cut rates in December.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 decreased by 8,000 to a lowly 220,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased by 28,000 to a not-so-lowly 1.974 million, which is the highest since November 6, 2021.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it corroborates the low firing, low hiring narrative hanging over the labor market.
• Existing home sales increased 1.2% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.08 million) from a downwardly revised 4.05 million (from 4.06 million) in September. Sales were up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that home sales in October were aided by lower mortgage rates, yet limited inventory in some regions, combined with high prices in others, got in the way of stronger selling activity.
• November Philadelphia Fed Index -1.7 vs. 2.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior -12.8

Friday:

The S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%), and DJIA (+1.1%) closed near session highs, marking a broad-based advance fueled by rising December rate cut expectations and renewed buy-the-dip interest after yesterday's lows.

Equity futures had pointed to a mixed open, but comments from New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) helped ignite the rally. He noted, "I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral," sending the CME FedWatch tool's probability of a 25-basis point cut to nearly 75%, up from around 40% prior to his remarks. Boston Fed President Collins (voting FOMC member) echoed a mildly restrictive policy stance, though her comments had little impact on market expectations, leaving the CME FedWatch tool at a 69.5% probability for a December cut, versus 39.1% yesterday.

Several sectors got off to a strong start, including the communication services sector (+2.2%), which would finish with the widest gain of the day. Alphabet (GOOG 299.65, +9.67, +3.33%) posted another solid gain, trading higher even as other mega-cap and tech names struggled this morning. 

The health care sector (+2.1%) was another early standout, with several components hitting fresh 52-week highs as investors continue to pile into the sector amid volatility across growth names. The sector holds a 7.1% gain in November, which is the best among S&P 500 sectors. The S&P 500 itself is down 3.5% over the same time period. 

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector's (+1.7%) gain was fueled by a combination of earnings strength and swelling rate-cut hopes. Ross Stores (ROST 174.00, +13.50, +8.41%) finished with the widest gain across S&P 500 names, trading to a new all-time high after topping earnings estimates and issuing upside guidance. 

Homebuilders were a top beneficiary of today's reinvigorated rate cut expectations. Names such as Lennar (LEN 123.16, +6.91, +5.94%) and D.R. Horton (DHI 146.71, +9.39, +6.84%) captured solid gains, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 5.0% higher.

Rate-cut optimism also saw the small-cap Russell 2000 (+2.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.4%) outperform today. 

Despite a hot start from the broader market, the information technology sector (+0.1%) lagged in the early going. The sector was the last to resurface above its flatline after slipping 1.5% this morning. NVIDIA (NVDA 178.88, -1.76, -0.97%), which still finished in negative territory as tech names faced some late selling pressure, held a loss wider than 4.0% this morning. 

The sector held a 1.5% gain in the early afternoon hours but finished just above its baseline. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 0.9% higher as chipmakers (with the exception of NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 203.78, -2.24, -1.09%)) finished mostly higher.

Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL 198.56, -12.13, -5.76%) finished with the widest loss across S&P 500 names. 

Despite some late-session profit-taking, ten S&P 500 sectors finished with gains, as only the utilities sector (flat) failed to close higher. 

The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+1.9%) decidedly outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500, highlighting that even with a solid index-level turnaround, there remains some caution surrounding the market's largest names. 

Nonetheless, today's broad-based rebound reflects renewed optimism around the possibility of a December rate cut and a willingness among investors to step in after recent weakness. While late-session profit-taking reminds traders of ongoing volatility, the rally indicates investors are cautiously rebuilding confidence after a rough week.

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Friday, building on their gains from this week. The 2-year note yield settled down five basis points to 3.51% (-10 basis points this week) and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.06% (-9 basis points this week). 

• Nasdaq Composite: +15.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +12.3% YTD
• DJIA: +8.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +6.3% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.0% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Flash November S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (actual 51.9; prior 52.5) and flash November S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (actual 55.0; prior 54.8)
• The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November increased to 51.0 (Briefing.com consensus: 50.3) from the preliminary reading of 50.3 and the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment continues to be adversely impacted by the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.