After Hours Report

The stock market was mixed today. Big tech stocks, semiconductor-related names, and utility shares with AI exposure registered outsized declines while money rotated to other areas of the market.

NVIDIA (NVDA 118.42, -24.20, -17.0%) logged its largest single-day loss in market capitalization ever, driven by concerns over China’s DeepSeek AI model. This AI model attracted attention after it was perceived as much more cost-effective than U.S. alternatives, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

The potential of DeepSeek to challenge the competitiveness of leading U.S. AI players raised questions about the future direction of the sector, particularly if DeepSeek can deliver on its promises. In response, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) has plummeted 9.2%, as investors reassess capital spending plans.

This weakness did not leak into the "rest" of the equity market as AI exuberance that led many names sharply higher was rung out of the market. More S&P 500 sectors closed higher (six) than lower (five). 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, with 20 of its 30 components in the green. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S&P 500 eked out a 0.1% gain, in contrast to the 1.5% drop in the market-cap weighted index. Market breadth was also more positive at the NYSE, where advancing issues lead decliners by a 3-to-2 ratio, though decliners outpace advancers at the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.

Still, the flight to safety impacted in the fixed-income market. The 10-year yield dropped ten basis points to 4.53% and the 2-year yield fell eight basis points to 4.19%. Also, today's $69 billion 2-yr note sale met tepid demand and a $70 billion 5-yr note offering garnered stronger interest than the 2-yr sale.

Investor caution was also palpable ahead of a busy earnings week, with around 40% of the S&P 500 by market capitalization set to report. Among them are two of the three $3 trillion companies—Apple (AAPL 229.86, +7.08, +3.2%) and Microsoft (MSFT 434.56, -9.50, -2.1%).

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.1% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +3.8% YTD
• S&P 500: +2.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +0.2% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• December New Home Sales 698K (Briefing.com consensus 680K); Prior was revised to 674K from 664K
  • The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales growth was ahead of expectations in December, but selling prices jumped from the bottom of the range that was seen in 2024 toward the top, which presents a headwind to selling activity going forward.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, market participants receive the following economic data:

• 8:30 ET: December Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior -1.1%) and Durable Orders ex-transport (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior -0.1%)
• 9:00 ET: November FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 0.4%) and November S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 4.2%; prior 4.2%)
• 10:00 ET: January Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 108.1; prior 104.7)

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE +0.0%, CAC -0.3%
• Asia: Nikkei -0.8%, Hang Seng 0.0%, Shanghai -0.1%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -1.45 @ 73.15
• Nat Gas -0.20 @ 3.25
• Gold -39.00 @ 2739.50
• Silver -0.67 @ 30.47
• Copper -0.09 @ 4.32

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Graco (GGG) misses by $0.12, misses on revs... GGG down 5.2%
• Marten Transport (MRTN) beats by $0.01, misses on revs... MRTN down 0.7%
• Nucor (NUE) beats by $0.58, beats on revs; market conditions are starting to improve... NUE up 1.6%
• Sanmina (SANM) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides MarQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; increases share buyback authorization by $300 mln... SANM up 3.2%

Fair Value for Tuesday, January 28:

• S&P 500: 6,045
• Nasdaq 100: 21,257
• DJIA: 44,902

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Air Transport Services Group (ATSG) sees Q4 (Dec) revs of $513-517 mln vs. $510.76 mln FactSet Consensus; Adjusted EBITDA $158-164 mln
  • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) acquires Moser Energy Systems; provides Q4 guidance
  • Dynex Capital (DX) reports Q4 results
  • Ermenegildo Zegna Group (ZGN) Revenues Reach €1,947 Million in FY 2024; Q4 Revenues up 3% Year-On-Year Driven by ZEGNA Brand up 8% YoY
  • Hope Bancorp (HOPE) beats by $0.06
  • Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) lowers Q4 revenue guidance for Local Media segment, also lowers expense outlook
  • T&T (T) beats by $0.05, misses on revs; guides FY25 EPS below consensus
• General News
  • Nasdaq futures and AI stocks trading lower after China's DeepSeek R1 release was "on par" with OpenAI-o1"; Bloomberg reports that model could be more cost effective and run on chips that are less advanced
  • President Trump could impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says “Columbia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia", says tariffs will be “held in reserve, but not signed.”
  • Israel and Hamas accuse each other of violating ceasefire deal, according to the New York Times
  • Senate will vote on confirmation of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tonight, according to The Hill
  • President Trump will meet with House Republicans to discuss large reconciliation bill tonight, according to Politico
  • Senate confirmed Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense who promised to upend traditional practices at the Pentagon, according to Politico
  • President Trump and California Governor Gavin Newsom promise to work together on wildfires, according to the New York Times
  • The Trump administration increasing arrests of undocumented immigrants to 1200-1500 per day, according to Washington Post
  • White House issues statement on agreement extension between Lebanon and Israel
  • Banks want to sell X loans at around 90 to 95 cents on the dollar, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • US detected outbreak of bird flu on a poultry farm, according to Reuters
  • UK HSA confirms rare case of bird flu (H5N1) in the West Midlands region
  • President Trump's AI Czar David Sacks responds to DeepSeek RI; says "US can not be complacent"
  • Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) reports preliminary topline results showing statistically significant reversal of compensated cirrhosis due to MASH—by both completer and ITT analyses—at Week 96 in phase 2b symmetry study
  • Allakos (ALLK) announces topline results from its phase 1 trial of AK006 in patients with chronic spontaneous urticaria and announces restructuring
  • Alpha Tau (DRTS) announces "positive" interim data from multiple clinical trials, including safety and feasibility studies treating patients with pancreatic cancer, a combination study with pembrolizumab in patients with recurrent unresectable or metastatic HNSCC, and other clinical trials
  • Alvotech (ALVO) and Teva (TEVA) announce filing acceptance of U.S. biologics license applications for AVT05, a proposed biosimilar to Simponi and Simponi Aria
  • Amazon (AMZN) aiming to speak with Quebec governments about operation shutdowns, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • American Water Works (AWK): Pennsylvania American Water receives $19.3 mln in PENNVEST funding to make water and wastewater infrastructure improvements
  • Audioeye (AEYE) approved a program to repurchase up to $12.5 million of its outstanding shares of common stock
  • Barnes Group (B): Apollo (APO) completes acquisition of Barnes Group
  • Barrick (GOLD) will begin new talks with Mali government tomorrow, according to Reuters
  • Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) comments on QXO’s (QXO) unsolicited tender offer
  • Biogen (BIIB) and Eisai receive FDA approval for LEQEMBI IV maintenance dosing for the treatment of early Alzheimer’s Disease
  • Black Spade Acquisition II (BSII) and World Media and Entertainment Universal to go public through business combination; expected to close in mid-2025
  • Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) Presents Results from CheckMate -8HW Analysis Evaluating Opdivo® (nivolumab) plus Yervoy® (ipilimumab) Compared to Opdivo Monotherapy
  • Cameco (CCJ) resumes production at JV Inkai
  • Cartesian Therapeutics (RNAC) has received written agreement from the U.S. FDA under the Special Protocol Assessment process on the overall design of the Company’s planned Phase 3 AURORA trial for Descartes-08, its lead mRNA cell therapy candidate, in myasthenia gravis
  • Chubb (CB) and AIG (AIG) file opioid lawsuit against McKinsey, according to Bloomberg, according to Bloomberg
  • Coinbase Global (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong says "we need to rethink our listing process at COIN given there are ~1m tokens a week being created now, and growing"
  • CVR Energy (CVI) commences planned turnaround at Coffeyville, Kansas, refinery operated by one of its subsidiaries
  • Daktronics (DAKT): Anchor Capital, shareholder of Daktronics, supports governance enhancements at Daktronics
  • Diageo plc (DEO) issues response to recent media speculation
  • DMC Global (BOOM) responds to Steel Connect
  • Dynavax (DVAX) advances board refreshment program
  • Edison (EIX) sued by law firm alleging that its equipment ignited Eaton fire, according to Bloomberg
  • Edison (EIX) writes letter to California's PUC says "Preliminary analysis of electrical data for the four energized transmission lines that run through Eaton Canyon for 12 hours prior to the reported start time of the fire shows that there were no faults on those lines until more than one hour after the reported start time of the fire"
  • Eos Energy (EOSE) secures Cerberus Delayed draw term loan full funding, continuing U.S. manufacturing capacity to strengthen America’s energy independence
  • Estee Lauder (EL) aiming to review portfolio of beauty brands, according to Bloomberg
  • Exelixis (EXEL) Announces Encouraging Results from Phase 1b/2 STELLAR-001 Trial Evaluating Zanzalintinib Alone or in Combination with an Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer at ASCO GI 2025
  • Franco-Nevada (FNV) Announces Financing Package with Discovery Silver on the Porcupine Complex
  • Gladstone Land (LAND) announced that none of its California farms have been impacted by the recent wildfires that have occurred in the southern part of the state
  • GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) Shingrix new prefilled syringe presentation accepted for review by EMA
  • Global Net Lease (GNL) appointed current Senior VP of Corporate Development Ori Kravel as COO, effective January 23
  • Huntington Ingalls (HII) closes on asset acquisition to expand shipbuilding capacity; operations are underway at newport news shipbuilding charleston operations
  • Hyatt Hotels (H) announces a record pipeline of approximately 138,000 rooms as of year-end 2024, alongside a strategic brand realignment designed to enhance owner returns and accelerate growth
  • ImmunityBio (IBRX) announces european medicines agency acceptance of marketing authorization application for ANKTIVA for the Treatment of Patients with BCG-unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder cancer carcinoma in situ
  • Innate Pharma (IPHA) Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase 1 Study of Its Nectin-4 Targeting Antibody Drug Conjugate IPH4502 in Selected Advanced Solid Tumors
  • iRobot (IRBT) wins dismissal of class action lawsuit against the company
  • JAKKS Pacific (JAKK): Disguise announces global licensing rights to design, produce, and market costumes inspired by A MINECRAFT MOVIE
  • James River Group (JRVR) disclosed litigation update
  • Jamf Holding (JAMF) has achieved StateRAMP Authorized status for its Jamf Pro and Jamf School products
  • JetBlue (JBLU) aims to present early retirement packages to some of its pilots, according to CNBC
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) supported HistoSonics mulling IPO, according to Bloomberg
  • KKR (KKR): Enel (ENLAY) and KKR among bidders for $6 billion sale of renewable energy firm Cubico, according to Reuters
  • L3Harris (LHX) awarded full-rate Manpack and Leader radio production orders under the Handheld, Manpack & Small Form Fit program totaling nearly $300 mln by the U.S. Army
  • Matthews (MATW) files investor presentation highlighting commitment to shareholder value creation
  • Merck (MRK): FDA grants priority review to Merck’s application for WELIREG for the treatment of patients with advanced pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma
  • Meta Platforms (META): Advertisers concerned about Meta's speech changes, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • Meta (META) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) are running ahead of Apple (AAPL) in augmented reality glasses segment, according to Bloomberg
  • Middleby (MIDD) confirms ongoing strategic review of business portfolio as part of Board of Directors’ efforts to maximize shareholder value
  • Mitsubishi Financial (MUFG) announces a three-year partnership with top-ranked professional golfer Yuka Saso, extending through the 2027 golf season
  • Natera (NTRA) Announces Successful Readout of Randomized, Phase III CALGB (Alliance) / SWOG 80702 Clinical Trial in Colorectal Cancer
  • Nokia (NOK) to provide London Internet Exchange members with advanced DDoS protection; to upgrade BBIX network; upgrades ESpanix’s IXP infrastructure
  • Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) agrees to $35/month cap for insulin prices after settlement in MN, according to Reuters
  • ODP Corporation (ODP) announces major milestone agreement with hospitality management company becoming key supplier and distribution partner
  • Oracle (ORCL): President Trump speaking with Oracle and other investors about taking control of TikTok, according to NPR
  • Perplexity AI interested in TikTok if US government owns 50% stake, according to CNBC
  • Pfizer (PFE) to pay nearly $60 mln to resolve false claims allegations, according to DOJ website
  • Pfizer’s (PFE) BRAFTOVI Combination Regimen Demonstrates Improved Response in Patients with BRAF V600E-Mutant Metastatic Colorectal Cancer
  • Pfizer (PFE) follow-up; activist Starboard (Jeffrey Smith) did not submit nominations for the Board, according to Bloomberg
  • PureTech (PRTC) Founded Vedanta Biosciences Publishes Additional Phase 2 VE303 Results in Nature Medicine
  • Rackspace Technology (RXT) has announced a Memorandum of Understanding with Dubai Health to explore the establishment of a Healthcare Digital Hub
  • Roche Hldg (RHHBY) reports new results from EMBARK demonstrating significant sustained benefits of Elevidys in ambulatory individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy
  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) Announces Results from Part 2 of the EMBARK Study Demonstrating Sustained Benefits and Disease Stabilization in Ambulatory Individuals with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Following Treatment with ELEVIDYS
  • Seabridge Gold (SA) renews At-The-Market offering
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) could price IPO below $20.00/share range, according to Bloomberg
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) provided DOE update
  • Spotify (SPOT) and Universal Music Group (UMGNF) strike a new multi-year agreement
  • Sunoco LP (SUN) raises quarterly distribution
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): VCI Global Limited (VCIG) announces a major AI asset acquisition through Super Micro Computer
  • Tevogen Bio (TVGN) Broadens Relationship with Microsoft to Deepen Artificial Intelligence Collaboration and Develop PredicTcell Technology on Azure
  • Travelers (TRV) posted a slide presentation on the Investors page with California wildfire updates
  • UnitedHealthcare (UNH) hacking incident impacted 190 million people, according to Reuters
  • U.S. Steel (X): Ancora Nominates Majority Slate of Director Candidates and Proposes Industry Legend Alan Kestenbaum as New CEO to Turn Around U.S. Steel
  • U.S. Steel (X): Alan Kestenbaum willing to purchase large stake in US Steel if it ends Nippon Steel M&A talks and picks him for CEO, according to Bloomberg
  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Accepts FDA Opportunity for a Hearing on New Drug Application for Tradipitant in Gastroparesis
  • Veru (VERU) Announces Positive Topline Data from Phase 2b QUALITY Clinical Study: Enobosarm Preserved Lean Mass in Patients Receiving WEGOVY (Semaglutide) for Weight Reduction
  • Williams Cos (WMB) announces that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued an Order on Remand Reinstating Certificate and Abandonment Authorization to Transco for the Regional Energy Access Expansion late Friday, Jan. 24
  • Xiao-I (AIXI) responds to "DeepSeek" developments, showcases cost-effective RL breakthroughs in Hua Zang LLM, and announces U.S. expansion

Ratings Changes (see Upgrades/Downgrades calendar for full list):

• Upgrades:
  • 1st Source Corp (SRCE) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $72.50
  • Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $17
  • Aptiv (APTV) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $82
  • British American Tobacco (BTI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
  • Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $76
  • Dana Inc (DAN) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $16
  • Exelixis (EXEL) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $40
  • Interpublic (IPG) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $39
  • Portillo's (PTLO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt raised to $16
  • Qorvo (QRVO) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $110
  • Redwire Corporation (RDW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley Securities; tgt raised to $27
  • South State (SSB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $128
  • State Street (STT) upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Wolfe Research
  • Take-Two (TTWO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $230
  • Titan Machinery (TITN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $25
  • Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $60
  • Twilio (TWLO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $185
  • Waste Mgmt (WM) upgraded to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank; tgt raised to $250
• Downgrades:
  • Air Products (APD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $350
  • Ameren (AEE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt raised to $95
  • Barrick (GOLD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $18
  • Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $13
  • D.R. Horton (DHI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $150
  • Fannie Mae (FNMA) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $4
  • Freddie Mac (FMCC) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $4.50
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $11
  • Public Service (PEG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $84
  • RingCentral (RNG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $37
  • RLI Corp (RLI) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Jefferies; tgt lowered to $61
• Others:
  • American Tower (AMT) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $225
  • Ares Management (ARES) resumed with an Overweight at Barclays; tgt $224
  • Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $26.50
  • CleanSpark (CLSK) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $19
  • Core Scientific (CORZ) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $22
  • Crown Castle (CCI) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $115
  • DigitalBridge (DBRG) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $16
  • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $220
  • Equinix (EQIX) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $1200]
  • GDS Holdings (GDS) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $35
  • GFL Environmental (GFL) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup; tgt $53
  • Marvell (MRVL) initiated with a Buy at Melius; tgt $188
  • Palladyne AI (PDYN) initiated with a Buy at Alliance Global Partners; tgt $15
  • Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) initiated with a Buy at JonesResearch
  • SBA Comm (SBAC) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $250
  • Vistra Corp. (VST) resumed with a Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $206

• Econ Data (Tuesday):
  • 8:30 ET: December Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior -1.1%) and Durable Orders ex-transport (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior -0.1%)
  • 9:00 ET: November FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 0.4%) and November S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 4.2%; prior 4.2%)
  • 10:00 ET: January Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 108.1; prior 104.7)
• Treasury Auctions:
  • 13:00 ET: $44 bln 7-yr Treasury note auction results
• Earnings:
  • Monday (Jan 27)
    • Pre-Market: T BOH HOPE SOFI
    • After-Hours: ARE BRO CR ELS GGG NUE PCH SANM SBCF TRNS WRB WAL WSFS
  • Tuesday (Jan 28)
    • Pre-Market: ADNT BA CVLT GM IVZ JBLU KMB LMT PCAR PII BPOP RCL RTX SAP SASR SYF SYY XRX
    • After-Hours: ASH AX BXP CB FFIV FCF HLI LC LFUS LOGI MANH NXT PKG PFS QRVO RNR RNST SBUX LRN SYK TRMK UMBF VBTX
  • Wednesday (Jan 29)
    • Pre-Market: AIT ASML ADP AVT EAT GLW DHR EXP EXTR FLEX GD GPI HES HESM LII MNRO MSCI NDAQ NAVI NSC OTIS PB SMG SLGN SBSI SF TMUS TEVA VFC VIRT WNC
      
    • After-Hours: AMP AXS BHE CHRW CALX CP CCS CLB DLB ETD FIBK IBM LRCX LSTR LVS LEVI LBRT MXL MTH META MSFT NFG RJF RHI SEIC SIGI NOW TER TSLA TTEK URI WM WDC WHR WOLF
  • Thursday (Jan 30)
    • Pre-Market: FLWS AOS ALGM MO ABG AVY BHLB BX BFH BIP BC CAH CRS CAT CHKP CFR DOV DOW DT FRME FCFS FLG IP KEX LAZ LHX MBUU MAN MMC MA MBLY MUR NTCT NOK NOC OSK PH PHM DGX ROP RES SNY SCSC SNDR SHW SIRI LUV STM CI TMO TSCO TT UPS VLO
    • After-Hours: ATGE ABCB APPF AAPL AJG TEAM BKR BZH CNI CLS COUR DECK EMN FHI GEN HIG HTH INTC KLAC LPLA OLN PPG RMD SKYW STEL X VIAV V WY
  • Friday (Jan 31)
    • Pre-Market: ABBV AON ARCB ALV BMI BAH BR CHTR CVX CHD CL ETN XOM FHB BEN GNTX GWW IMO JHG LYB NVS OMF PSX RBC VSTS WT
    • After-Hours: None
General Motors: 5,000 members at GM's Arlington, TX assembly plant join UAW strike