After Hours Report

After some early shakiness, the stock market proved to be largely unaffected by the ongoing government shutdown, with today's gains sending the S&P 500 (+0.3%) to new record highs (and past the 6,700 mark), while the DJIA (+0.1%) notched a record closing high, and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) led the cohort. 

Investors steadily bought back the broad-based opening retreat, unfazed by the Senate failing to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government early this afternoon. The senate will leave tomorrow for the Yom Kippur holiday, which means the next votes on a resolution will be Friday and over the weekend. 

While today's resilience suggests the ongoing shutdown will have little effect on the stock market, it will delay the release of the Employment Situation Report, which was set to be released on Friday. Some analysts have expressed concerns that this could murky the market's expectations of further rate cuts from the Fed this year, though today's data reinforced a dovish tone ahead of the blackout.

The September ADP Payrolls report showed a decline of 32k private-sector jobs (Briefing.com consensus: 40k). In response, the CME FedWatch tool now prices a 100% chance of at least a 25-basis-point cut at the October FOMC meeting (up from 96.7% yesterday) and an 87.8% chance of another cut in December (up from 77.3% yesterday).

Stocks steadily traded higher throughout the day, with advancers outpacing decliners by a roughly 8-to-5 ratio on the NYSE and a roughly 4-to-3 ratio on the Nasdaq.

Only four S&P 500 sectors closed with gains, though they were substantial enough to lift the major averages. 

The health care sector (+3.0%) saw another day of impressive gains following yesterday's headline catalyst. Pfizer (PFE 27.23, +1.76, +6.89%) and peers continued to rise after yesterday's announcement of TrumpRx, a government-run platform to lower drug costs. Under the initiative, Pfizer will reduce Medicaid prices and invest $70 billion in U.S. R&D in exchange for a three-year tariff reprieve. 

Eli Lilly (LLY 825.71, +62.71, +8.22%), Thermo Fisher (TMO 531.07, +46.05, +9.49%), and Biogen (BIIB 154.22, +14.14, +10.09%) were just a few of several stocks in the sector to close with gains approaching double digits. 

The information technology sector (+0.7%) also captured a nice gain as strength in its chipmaker components saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index advance 2.1%. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.7%) closed similarly, supported by Tesla's (TSLA 459.41, +14.69, +3.30%) rise ahead of what is expected to be an impressive Q3 delivery report tomorrow and Nike's (NKE 74.24, +4.50, +6.46%) strength following its earnings report.

Today's biggest decliners included the materials sector (-1.2%), weighed down by Corteva (CTVA 61.47, -6.16, -9.11%) announcing a planned split into two companies, while the financials sector (-0.9%) saw weakness in its major banking names, and the communication services sector (-0.8%) slipped as most of its components traded lower.

Outside of the S&P 500, smaller cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) captured gains similar to that of their larger-cap peers. 

U.S. Treasuries rallied on Wednesday with leadership from the front end after today's weak ADP Employment Change report for September invited more questions about the present state of the labor market. The 2-year note yield settled down six basis points to 3.54%, and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.11%.

• Nasdaq Composite: +17.8% YTD
• S&P 500: +14.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: +9.7% YTD
• DJIA: +9.2% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.9% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -12.7%; Prior 0.6%
• September ADP Employment Change -32K (Briefing.com consensus 40K); Prior was revised to -3K from 54K
• September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Final 52.0; Prior 52.0
• September ISM Manufacturing Index 49.1% vs Briefing.com consensus of 49.2%; Prior 48.7%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the manufacturing sector remains in a state of contraction, with new order activity under pressure from tariff costs and uncertainty.

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +1.1%, FTSE +1.0%, CAC +0.9%
• Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng market closed, Shanghai market closed

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -0.58 @ 61.79
• Nat Gas +0.18 @ 3.48
• Gold +24.40 @ 3897.80
• Silver +1.02 @ 47.66
• Copper +0.03 @ 4.88

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Globant (GLOB) approves a new $125 million share repurchase program...GLOB +2.6%
• Honeywell (HON) divests all of its legacy Bendix asbestos liabilities, as well as certain non-Bendix asbestos liabilities, to Delticus...+0.3%
• Nanobiotix (NBTX) announces first data from Phase 1 study evaluating JNJ-1900 for patients with Esophageal Cancer...NBTX -0.7%
• Williams Cos (WMB) to invest approximately $3.1 bln in two additional power innovation projects...+0.5%

Fair Value for Thursday, October 2:

• S&P 500: 6,763
• Nasdaq 100: 25,021
• DJIA: 46,698

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Acuity (AYI) beats by $0.37, misses on revs
  • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) misses by $0.89, misses on revs
  • Conagra (CAG) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • DTE Energy (DTE) provided investor updates in presentation
  • Kosmos Energy (KOS) provides update on financial progress
  • Li Auto (LI) reports September deliveries
  • NIKE (NKE) beats by $0.22, beats on revs, gross margin down 320 bps to 42.2%, North America revenue up 4%; Sees Q2 revs being down low single digits, roughly in-line; sees momentum building with its wholesale partners
  • NIO (NIO) reports September deliveries increased 64% yr/yr
  • Veradigm (MDRX) provided 2025 business update
  • XPeng (XPEV) reports September deliveries increased 95% yr/yr
  • ZEEKR Intelligent Technology (ZK) reports September deliveries increased 8.5% yr/yr
• General News
  • U.S. government enters shutdown; White House OMB says agencies should now execute their plans for an orderly shutdown
  • White House plans to withdraw nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to NY Times
  • EU aiming to propose 50% tariffs on steel imports amid pressure from steelmakers who are facing pressure from China, according to WSJ
  • Taiwan rejected demand from U.S. that 50% of chips be made in U.S., according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump prioritizes harnessing American AI innovation to unlock cures for pediatric cancer
  • Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported September gross revs increased 6% yr/yr to HKD 18.3 bln
  • Punchbowl News co-founder Jake Sherman CNBC interview: He believes Democrats will "fold" and government funding will be extended for 7 weeks; He thinks shutdown will end in the next 7-10 days
  • Adeia (ADEA) enters into long-term IP license agreement with Altice USA; deal also resolves all outstanding litigation
  • AMC Entertainment (AMC) announces elimination of $40 million of debt
  • Amentum Holdings (AMTM) awarded a $995 mln Air Force contract
  • Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) will face lawsuit over gambling applications, according to Reuters
  • Arm Holdings plc (ARM) aiming to appeal Qualcomm (QCOM) dispute ruling, according to Reuters
  • Ashland (ASH) announces that a production unit at its Calvert City, Kentucky manufacturing facility is currently offline following an equipment-related incident that occurred earlier this month
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) says "BlueBird 6 has completed final assembly and testing and is ready for flight!"
  • Baker Hughes (BKR) announces an award from engineering company Bechtel Energy to supply key liquefaction equipment for Sempra Infrastructure’s Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project in Jefferson County, Texas
  • Blaize Holdings (BZAI) reveals that Yotta is its end customer under its $56 mln edge AI initiative announced earlier in June
  • Bristol Myers (BMY) and Takeda (TAK) among companies that will share proprietary data for AI training, according to Reuters
  • Bristol-Myers' (BMY) Anti-MTBR-Tau-Targeting Antibody, BMS-986446, Granted Fast Track Designation by U.S. FDA for the Treatment of Alzheimer’s Disease
  • BMW Group (BMWKY) is recalling certain 2020 340I, X6, 2020-2025 840I, 2020-2022 740LI, 2019-2020 X7, and X5 vehicles because of starter issue
  • BWX Technologies (BWXT) awarded contract to produce high purity depleted uranium for national defense purposes
  • C4 Therapeutics (CCCC) has entered into a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Pfizer Inc.
  • Canadian Solar's (CSIQ) e-STORAGE enters into Battery Storage Agreements and Long-Term Services Agreements with Aypa Power
  • Community Health's (CYH) CHSPSC entered into a consultancy agreement with Tim L. Hingtgen, the Company’s retiring Chief Executive Officer
  • CVS Health (CVS): Aetna 2026 Medicare Advantage plans deliver access to affordable, personalized care
  • Faraday Future (FFAI) issues a statement on a recent fire incident at its satellite office building
  • General Mills (GIS) discloses it approved a multi-year organizational initiative to increase the competitiveness of our supply chain; expects to incur approximately $82 million of restructuring charges, of which approximately $17 million will be cash
  • Geo Group (GEO) awarded a contract by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement for the continued provision of electronic monitoring, case management, and supervision services under the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program
  • Google (GOOG, GOOGL) willing to provide more advertising data to publishers, according to NY Post
  • Humana’s (HUM) 2026 Medicare Advantage Plans prioritize simplicity, stability and quality care for beneficiaries
  • Inventiva (IVA) names Andrew Obenshain as CEO
  • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) announces a cooperation agreement with Danone (DANOY) North America PBC; Lifeway agreed to carry out an orderly refreshment of its board of directors, and the pending litigation pertaining to Danone's Stockholders' Agreement with Lifeway will be stayed
  • Lithium Americas (LAC) reaches agreement with GM and DOE to advance first draw loan
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) announces a series of Army contracts
  • Mastercard (MA) unveiled Mastercard Commerce Media, a new digital media network that takes the guesswork out of advertising
  • MAXIMUS (MMS) selected by Pennsylvania’s Department of Human Services to continue administering the Pennsylvania Enrollment Assistance Program under a five-year, $62 million contract
  • Morgan Stanley (MS): The Federal Reserve announced today that it has reduced Morgan Stanley’s Stress Capital Buffer from 5.1% to 4.3%, effective on October 1, 2025 in response to the Firm seeking reconsideration of its preliminary SCB announced in June 2025
  • Netflix (NFLX): Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk says "Cancel Netflix for the health of your kids"
  • Novartis AG (NVS) receives FDA approval for Rhapsido, the only oral, targeted BTKi treatment for chronic spontaneous urticaria
  • Parsons (PSN): MPA contract extended to continue delivering the Hudson Tunnel Project
  • Pharming Group N.V. (PHAR) receives FDA acceptance and Priority Review of supplemental NDA for leniolisib
  • PPL Corp (PPL) making investments to strengthen and modernize infrastructure and expand services
  • Qualcomm (QCOM): U.S. District Court confirms Qualcomm’s December 2024 jury trial victory and rejects Arm’s remaining claims
  • QuantaSing (QSG) announces business restructuring, name change to Here Group Limited and extraordinary general meeting
  • Resources Connection (RGP) launches rIQ, proprietary AI accelerator built on ServiceNow
  • Samsung (SSNLF) and OpenAI announce strategic partnership to accelerate advancements in global AI infrastructure
  • Starbucks (SBUX) planning to close dozens of stores in New York City, according to NY Post
  • Stellantis (STLA) and Mistral AI elevate their partnership from pilots to company-wide AI deployment, embedding generative AI across operations
  • Strategy Inc (MSTR) increased the regular dividend rate per annum on the Company’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock from 10.00% to 10.25% effective for monthly periods commencing on or after October 1, 2025
  • SuperX AI Technology Limited (SUPX) unveiled its data center-scale solution, the SuperX Modular AI Factory
  • Targa Resources (TRGP) announces new organic growth projects to support continuing NGL and natural gas production growth in the Permian Basin; Company now estimates total net growth capital expenditures for 2025 to be around $3.3 bln
  • Tesla (TSLA) increased lease prices for all its vehicles, according to Reuters
  • Tesla (TSLA) sales increase in some European markets, according to Reuters
  • The Beauty Health Company (SKIN) names Pedro Malha Chief Executive Officer
  • Uber (UBER) found not liable in sexual misconduct case, according to NY Post
  • UiPath (PATH) announces UiPath Platform for agentic automation and orchestration is integrating with Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure AI Foundry
  • Zoetis (ZTS) receives conditional approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the prevention and treatment of infestations caused by the larvae of Cochliomyia hominivorax (myiasis), and prevention of reinfestation for 21 days

• Upgrades:
  • Autodesk (ADSK) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $343
  • Banc of California (BANC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $20
  • Banco BBVA Argentina (BBAR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $17
  • Banco Macro (BMA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $80
  • Beta Bionics (BBNX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $26
  • BRP Inc. (DOOO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $73
  • Carvana (CVNA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $475
  • Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, tgt $12.50
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $70
  • Grocery Outlet (GO) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Telsey Advisory Group, tgt $20
  • Herc Holdings (HRI) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $160
  • InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley
  • Mercury Systems (MRCY) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, tgt $90
    
  • Moody's (MCO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, tgt $528
    
  • Polaris (PII) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup, tgt $60
    
  • RenaissanceRe (RNR) upgraded to In Line from Underperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $244
    
  • Samsara (IOT) upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $50
    
  • SkyWest (SKYW) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $140
    
  • Sunrun (RUN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $21
    
  • United Rentals (URI) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $1,050
• Downgrades:
  • Allstate (ALL) downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $233
  • AT&T (T) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, tgt $30
  • Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $64
  • Enlight Renewable (ENLT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $30
  • GE Vernova (GEV) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $605
  • LivaNova (LIVN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $55
  • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $7
  • MYR Group (MYRG) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    
  • Palmer Square Capital BDC (PSBD) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $12
    
  • Sixth Street Specialty Lending (TSLX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $24
    
  • Tetra Tech (TTEK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Northcoast
    
  • ViaSat (VSAT) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $23
• Others:
  • Klaviyo (KVYO) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $40
    
  • LTC Properties (LTC) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $38
    
  • MAA (MAA) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $150
    
  • Macom (MTSI) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $150
    
  • MongoDB (MDB) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $430
    
  • Monday.com (MNDY) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $260
    
  • Moody's (MCO) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research, tgt $528
    
  • MSCI (MSCI) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research, tgt $650
    
  • National Health Investors (NHI) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $90
    
  • Netgear (NTGR) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research, tgt $40
    
  • Netstreit (NTST) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $21
    
  • Omega Healthcare (OHI) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $50
    
  • Oxford Lane (OXLC) initiated with a Buy at Clear Street, tgt $21.50
    
  • Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $12
    
  • Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $12
    
  • Pool Corp (POOL) initiated with a Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    
  • QXO (QXO) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc, tgt $28
    
  • Realty Income (O) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $64
    
  • Repligen (RGEN) initiated with a Buy at HSBC, tgt $150
    
  • Rexford Industrial (REXR) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $50
    
  • RingCentral (RNG) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $32
    
  • Ryman Hospitality (RHP) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $108
    
  • Safehold (SAFE) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $17
    
  • Sabra Health Care (SBRA) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $20
    
  • Semtech (SMTC) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $75
    
  • Snowflake (SNOW) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $275
    
  • Solventum (SOLV) initiated with a Neutral at UBS, tgt $77
    
  • Sound Point Meridian Capital (SPMC) initiated with a Buy at Clear Street, tgt $20
    
  • S&P Global (SPGI) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research, tgt $540
    
  • Stag Industrial (STAG) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $37
    
  • Strawberry Fields REIT (STRW) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $14
    
  • Target Hospitality (TH) initiated with a Hold at Texas Capital, tgt $9
    
  • Terreno Realty (TRNO) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $70
    
  • TransUnion (TRU) initiated with a Neutral at Seaport Research
    
  • Twilio (TWLO) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $130
    
  • UDR (UDR) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $40
    
  • UMH Properties (UMH) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $15
    
  • Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) initiated with a Buy at Clear Street, tgt $11
    
  • Ventas (VTR) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $77
    
  • Verisk Analytics (VRSK) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research, tgt $280
    
  • VICI Properties (VICI) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $37
    
  • Welltower (WELL) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $195
    
  • ZoomInfo Technologies (GTM) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $10

• Econ Data (Thursday):
  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 220,000; prior 218,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.926 mln)
  • 10:00 ET: August Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%; prior -1.3%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +75 bcf)

• Earnings:
  • Monday (Sep 29)
    • Pre-Market: CCL
    • After-Hours: JEF PRGS MTN
      
    Tuesday (Sep 30)
    • Pre-Market: LW PAYX UNFI
    • After-Hours: NKE
      
  • Wednesday (Oct 1)
    • Pre-Market: AYI CALM CAG RPM
      
    • After-Hours: None
      
  • Thursday (Oct 2)
    • Pre-Market: ANGO
    • After-Hours: None 
  • Friday (Oct 3)
    • Pre-Market: None
    • After-Hours: None