After Hours Report

The stock market rallied in the mid-week session. There was a positive bias in the early going and buying interest increased following the 2:00 ET FOMC decision and Fed Chair Powell's subsequent press conference. 

The major indices closed near their session highs after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates steady, leaving the federal funds target range unchanged at 4.25-4.50% in a unanimous vote.

 Fed Governor Waller dissented—not on the rate decision itself, but on the pace of balance sheet reduction. His preference to maintain the current level of securities runoff was overruled as the committee opted to slow the monthly runoff of Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting April 1, while keeping mortgage-backed securities runoff unchanged at $35 billion.

The committee’s directive also acknowledged rising economic uncertainty while maintaining that the Fed remains attentive to both sides of its dual mandate.

The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) complicates the narrative. The Fed lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7% while simultaneously raising its PCE inflation projection from 2.5% to 2.7% (core PCE ticked up from 2.5% to 2.8%). Despite this, the median estimate for the fed funds rate held steady at 3.9%, implying an expectation for two rate cuts this year.

Weaker growth estimates paired with a steady inflation outlook and rate cut projections indicates the central bank is more concerned with stubborn inflation than slowing growth.

During his press conference, Fed Chairman Powell again said that there is no rush to adjust policy. He warned that it is "going to be very difficult to have a precise assessment of how much inflation is coming from tariffs."

He indicated that it's "kind of the base case" that inflationary pressures from tariffs would be transitory, adding that the last time tariffs were imposed, the increase in prices was transitory.

Mega cap shares led the upside charge in equities, exhibiting rebound activity after leading declines yesterday. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed 1.4% higher.

A sharp drop in rates also contributed to the upside bias in stocks. The 10-yr yield settled three basis points lower at 4.26% and the 2-yr yield settled six basis points lower at 3.98%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.4% YTD
• S&P 500: -3.5% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -4.4% YTD
• Russell 2000: -6.6% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -8.1% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications -6.2%; Prior 11.2%
• Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a build of 1.75 million barrels following last week's build of 1.45 million barrels

Looking ahead to Thursday, market participants receive the following data:

• 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 220,000; prior 220,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.870 mln), Q4 Current Account Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$334.0 bln; prior -$131.4 bln), and March Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.com consensus 10.0; prior 18.1)
• 10:00 ET: February Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 3.95 mln; prior 4.08 mln) and February Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%; prior -0.3%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -62 bcf)

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE +0.0%, CAC +0.7%
• Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai -0.1%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil +0.18 @ 66.96
• Nat Gas +0.18 @ 4.24
• Gold +0.80 @ 3041.10
• Silver -0.53 @ 33.21
• Copper +0.10 @ 5.10

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Five Below (FIVE) beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line... FIVE up 8.0%
• Microchip (MCHP) launches public offering of $1.35 bln of depositary shares, each representing 1/20th interest in a share of newly issued Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock; files mixed shelf securities offering... MCHP down 3.3%
• Worthington Steel (WS) misses by $0.13, misses on revs; headwinds from Q2 continued into Q3... WS down 4.1%

Fair Value for Thursday, March 20:

• S&P 500: 5,728
• Nasdaq 100: 19,946
• DJIA: 42,319

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • GDS Holdings (GDS) reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs; guides FY25 revs below consensus
  • General Mills (GIS) beats by $0.04, misses on revs; Lowers FY25 organic net sales and adjusted EPS growth guidance
  • HealthEquity (HQY) Reports Fiscal Year and Fourth Quarter Ended January 31, 2025 Financial Results
  • Kingsoft Cloud (KC) beats on EPS and revs
  • Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs, comps of +2.8%; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; approved a new share repurchase authorization for the repurchase of an additional $300 mln of the Company’s outstanding common stock
  • onsemi (ON) approves recognition of pre-tax non-cash impairment charges of between $600 million and $700 million associated with previously announced restructuring plan and cost reduction initiatives
  • Progressive (PGR) reports February 2025 Net premiums written +17% yr/yr to $6.684 bln; February EPS was $1.58 versus $1.24 last year
  • Quest Diagnostics (DGX) reaffirms FY25 EPS and revenue guidance
  • Regal Rexnord (RRX) provides update on impact of tariffs at investor conference
  • Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) missed by €0.04, beats on revs; Guides FY25 revenue slightly above consensus
  • StoneCo (STNE) reports Q4 results; grows adjusted EBT by 39.8% yr/yr and adjusted EPS by 46.6%
  • Tencent (TCEHY) reports FY24 results
  • Vertex (VERX) releases Investor Day slides; details accelerating financial momentum with new 2028 (long-term) targets
  • Waldencast (WALD) Reports Q4 2024 and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results
  • ZTO Express (ZTO) misses by RMB0.39, beats on revs
• General News
  • Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will speak with President Trump today, according to Bloomberg
  • Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%
  • President Trump fired two Democratic members of the FTC, according to the New York Times
  • Trump Administration considering drastic cuts to federal funding for domestic HIV prevention, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • FAA launches final initiative of runway safety portfolio
  • EU wants to lower steel imports by 15% amid tariffs, according to Reuters
  • President Trump says he had a "very good" call President Zelenskyy of Ukraine regarding war
  • President Zelenskyy backs halting strikes on Russian energy in call with President Trump, according to Bloomberg
  • Fed releases projections: Fed sees 2025 GDP 1.5-1.9% vs. December projection of 1.8-2.2%; Fed sees 2025 PCE inflation of 2.6-2.9% vs. 2.3-2.6% December projection; Fed sees 2025 federal funds rate of 3.9-4.4% vs. 3.6-4.1% December projection
  • Social media site X valuation has soared to $44 bln, according to Financial Times
  • Allison Transmission (ALSN): Daimler Truck North America standardizes Allison's FuelSense 2.0 Neutral at Stop technology for Freightliner and Western Star trucks
  • Alphabet (GOOG) posts blog titled "The latest A-series phone with Google AI smarts at an unbeatable value
  • Alphabet (GOOG): EU Commission confirms preliminary findings to Alphabet under the Digital Markets Act
  • Alphabet's (GOOG) Google Wallet launches new feature for kids to securely pay and store passes
  • Alphabet (GOOG): EU planning new regulatory action against Apple (AAPL) and Google, according to FT
  • Amazon (AMZN) mulling entry into used car market, according to Auto News
  • Amdocs (DOX) expands its amAIz Suite with new Gen AI network agents
  • American Water Works (AWK): Two major water main replacement projects were completed in late 2024 that enhance the overall water delivery system to Pekin customers, according to company officials
  • Ansys (ANSS) and NVIDIA to Demonstrate New Era of In-Silico Cardiovascular Research at GTC
  • Apollo Global Management (APO) announces that funds managed by Apollo affiliates have agreed to acquire a majority stake in OEG Energy Group from funds managed by the Power Opportunities strategy of Oaktree Capital Management, LP and other investors
  • Apple (AAPL): EU confirms guidance under Digital Markets Act to facilitate development of innovative products on Apple's platforms
  • ArcelorMittal (MT) provides update on the long steel business
  • Astera Labs (ALAB) Optimizes Connectivity for NVIDIA Blackwell-Based MGX Platforms at Scale
  • Autodesk (ADSK): Starboard Value wants to begin proxy battle at Autodesk, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • BlackRock (BLK), Global Infrastructure Partners, Microsoft, and MGX Welcome NVIDIA and xAI to the AI Infrastructure Partnership to Drive Investment in Data Centers and Enabling Infrastructure
  • Boeing (BA): Japan Airlines to introduce 17 additional Boeing 737-8 aircraft
  • Bristol-Myers (BMY) receives FDA orphan designation for treatment of small cell lung cancer
  • Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM) emerges as front-runner in $10 billion Colonial Pipeline deal, according to Bloomberg
  • Cadence (CDNS) Accelerates AI-Driven Engineering Design and Science with NVIDIA Grace Blackwell
  • Calavo Growers (CVGW) authorizes a $25 mln share repurchase program
  • CARGO Therapeutics (CRGX) Provides Corporate Update
  • Citigroup (C) filed notice for annual meeting (April 29) and proxy statement; indicates lower payout for its Transformation Bonus Program
  • Coherent (COHR) Recognized as One of NVIDIA’s Ecosystem Innovation Collaborators for Co-Packaged Optics at GTC
  • Comcast (CMCSA) announced that David Novak will become Chairman of the Board of Directors of 'SpinCo' the planned spin-off of select media brands and digital businesses; spin-off is expected to be completed during 2025
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) Collaborates with NVIDIA to Advance Agentic AI in Cybersecurity, Pioneer Testing of NVIDIA Reasoning Models
  • Dell Technologies (DELL) Accelerates Enterprise AI Innovation from PC to Data Center with NVIDIA
  • Denny's (DENN) unveils a special menu item with a tech-inspired twist: the limited-edition NVIDIA (NVDA) Breakfast Bytes; honoring NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang’s favorite menu hack and story that began at a Denny’s Booth
  • Electronic Arts (EA): Projected U.S. consumer spending on video game hardware, content and accessories declined 6% when compared to YA, to $4.5B, according to Circana
  • Euroseas (ESEA) announces new 3-year charter contract extension for its intermediate containership; Also completes spin-off of three subsidiaries into EuroHoldings (EHLD)
  • Flex (FLEX) collaborating with Torc and NVIDIA (NVDA) to develop scalable physical AI systems for autonomous trucks
  • Ford Motor (F): Churchill Downs Racetrack announces a partnership renewal with Ford as the exclusive automotive partner of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, reinforcing a longstanding relationship between two iconic American brands
  • Foxconn (HNHPF) server revenue could surpass Apple (AAPL) iPhone revenue in 2 years, according to Reuters
  • GE Aerospace (GE) announced that Bell Textron (TXT) has approved the use of the Rotor Analysis Diagnostic System Next Generation across Bell’s fleet of commercial helicopters
  • GE HealthCare (GEHC) and NVIDIA reimagine diagnostic imaging with autonomous X-ray and ultrasound solutions
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Drives Agentic AI Era With an Intelligent, Unified Data Layer for AI
  • HUTCHMED (HCM) and Innovent Jointly Announce that the FRUSICA-2 Phase II/III Study of Fruquintinib and Sintilimab Combination Has Met its Primary Endpoint in Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma in China
  • Hyatt Hotels (H): Sandals Resorts considering sale, according to WSJ
  • IBM (IBM) Taps NVIDIA AI Data Platform Technologies to Accelerate AI at Scale
  • Illumina (ILMN) and Nashville Biosciences announce that 250,000 whole genomes have been sequenced for the Alliance for Genomic Discovery initiative
  • Innodata (INOD) unveils Generative AI evaluation platform, built with NVIDIA (NVDA)
  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) increases its quarterly dividend by 12% to $1.40 per share
  • Kratos (KTOS) Breaks Ground on $50 Million State-of-the-Art Hypersonic System Indiana Payload Integration Facility
  • Lumentum (LITE) Selected as an NVIDIA Silicon Photonics Ecosystem Partner to Advance AI Networking at Scale
  • Merck (MRK) data at ACC.25 highlight innovative advancements and commitment to improving outcomes for people living with cardiovascular disease
  • Meta Platforms (META): Cathie Wood sold some shares in Meta, according to Bloomberg
  • Merck (MRK): FDA approves pembrolizumab for HER2 positive gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma expressing PD-L1
  • Micron (MU) Innovates From the Data Center to the Edge With NVIDIA
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) aiming to eliminate about 2,000 employees, according to Bloomberg
  • Nabors Industries (NBR) announces retirement of CFO William Restrepo
  • Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) to offer NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell Ultra-based products
  • NetApp (NTAP) Storage Now Validated for NVIDIA DGX SuperPOD, NVIDIA Cloud Partners, and NVIDIA-Certified Systems
  • Nissan Motor (NSANY) announces leadership and organizational updates
  • NVIDIA (NVDA), Alphabet and Google (GOOG) Collaborate on the Future of Agentic and Physical AI
  • Oracle (ORCL) Expands Distributed Cloud Capabilities with NVIDIA AI Enterprise
  • Oracle (ORCL): Singapore's Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA) has signed a contract with Oracle for an Oracle Cloud Isolated Region
  • Pegasystems (PEGA) has attained FedRAMP High Authority to Operate status
  • Plug Power (PLUG) announces pricing of upsized $280 million underwritten offering
  • Pure Storage (PSTG) Integrates NVIDIA AI Data Platform into FlashBlade to Fuel Enterprise AI Innovation
  • REGENXBIO (RGX) reports new, positive interim data from two additional patients in the Phase I/II portion of the AFFINITY DUCHENNE trial of RGX-202, a differentiated investigational gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy
  • Rio Tinto (RIO) issues statement on AGM resolution to review the Rio Tinto dual- listed companies structure
  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) schedules a rapid turnaround mission on Electron for OroraTech
  • RTX's (RTX) Collins Aerospace is preparing the first shipments of its Airshow HD entertainment system integrated into Venue™ smart monitors, providing an all-in-one, standalone in-flight entertainment solution for business aviation
  • Samsung (SSNLF) names new CEO
  • ServiceNow (NOW) and NVIDIA Advance Agentic AI to Redefine Enterprise Intelligence
  • Shopify (SHOP) to transfer U.S. stock exchange listing to Nasdaq; no change to TSX Listing
  • SoundHound AI (SOUN) expands collaboration with NVIDIA (NVDA), integrating NVIDIA AI Enterprise to accelerate inference and retrieval capabilities
  • Spire Global (SPIR) Launches Breakthrough AI Weather Models Built on NVIDIA Omniverse Blueprint for Earth-2
  • Supermicro (SMCI) Expands Enterprise AI Portfolio of over 100 GPU-Optimized Systems Supporting the Upcoming NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell Server Edition and NVIDIA H200 NVL Platform
  • Supermicro (SMCI) introduces a new petascale all-flash storage server using NVIDIA (NVDA) Grace CPU superchip for high performance software-defined AI storage workloads
  • Synopsys (SNPS) Accelerates Chip Design with NVIDIA Grace Blackwell and AI to Speed Electronic Design Automation
  • Taboola (TBLA) details Yahoo repurchase agreement update; completes debt refinancing
  • Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) Launches New Control-IQ+ Automated Insulin Delivery Technology in the United States
  • Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) announces publication by The New England Journal of Medicine of positive results from the company’s pivotal trial of Control-IQ+ automated insulin delivery technology in people with type 2 diabetes
  • Teradyne (TER) Robotics to Debut AI Accelerator-Powered Solutions at NVIDIA GTC 2025, Marking a First in AI-Driven Collaborative Robotics
  • Tesla (TSLA): Receives approval for passenger transportation in California, according to Bloomberg
  • Tesla (TSLA) receives a much-needed spark on significant regulatory event and notable analyst upgrade
  • Tesla’s (TSLA) missing $1.4 billion; accounting anomaly raises investor concerns, according to FT
  • TSMC (TSM) board member says that Intel (INTC) foundry takeover rumors are not accurate, according to Digitimes
  • Union Pacific (UNP) announces a tentative agreement that will be sent to NCFO members for ratification
  • Unity (U) announces enhanced engine performance and stability, new platforms, and AI-Powered Workflows at GDC 2025
  • Venture Global (VG) will soon get approval from President Trump to export natural gas, according to Bloomberg
  • Venture Global (VG) received approval from the U.S. Department of Energy to export liquefied natural gas to non-FTA countries for its third project, CP2 LNG, located in Cameron Parish, Louisiana
  • VEON (VEON) announces its wholly-owned subsidiary JSC Kyivstar has signed an agreement to acquire Uklon group, a leading Ukrainian ride-hailing and delivery platform
  • Veradigm (MDRX) announced Lou Silverman to succeed Greg Garrison as Chairman; Appoints Jonathan Sacks (partner at Stonehill Capital) and Bruce Felt to the Board; filed restatements
  • Verizon (VZ): Sinch expands partnership with Verizon to to provide and enable RCS for Business Messaging to Verizon subscribers
  • Verra Mobility (VRRM) partners with Verizon Connect
  • Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK) takes delivery of the Viking Nerthus, the company’s newest Viking Longship
  • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) increases quarterly cash dividend 16% to $0.66 /share from $0.57/share
  • Willis Lease (WLFC) discloses that its compensation committee approved the renewal and amendment of the employment agreement between the company and Charles F. Willis IV
  • Yum! Brands (YUM) to Accelerate AI Innovation in an Industry-First Collaboration With NVIDIA

• Upgrades:
  • Affirm (AFRM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Compass Point, tgt $64
  • Canadian Natural (CNQ) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank
  • Golar LNG (GLNG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Fearnley, tgt $42
  • Mosaic (MOS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $33
  • RTX Corp. (RTX) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird, tgt $160
  • Service Properties (SVC) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $4
  • Tesla (TSLA) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $425
  • UP Fintech (TIGR) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi, tgt $9.50
  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $285
  • XPeng (XPEV) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura, tgt $30
• Downgrades:
  • BP (BP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $36
  • Carlyle Group (CG) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • Jefferies Group (JEF) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • Martin Marietta (MLM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $560
  • PG&E (PCG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $19
  • PSEG (PEG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ladenburg, tgt $82.50
  • Thor Industries (THO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi, tgt $86
  • XPeng (XPEV) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Daiwa, tgt $24
• Others:
  • Atlassian (TEAM) initiated with an Equal Weight at Stephens, tgt $255
  • BioVie (BIVI) initiated with a Buy at Brookline, tgt $6
  • Braze (BRZE) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, tgt $43
  • Cinemark (CNK) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $31
  • Centerspace (CSR) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $68
  • Etsy (ETSY) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $50
  • HubSpot (HUBS) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, tgt $769
  • Imax (IMAX) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $36
  • Independence Realty Trust (IRT) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $24
  • Klaviyo (KVYO) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, tgt $43
  • Marcus (MCS) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $27
  • Monopar Therapeutics (MNPR) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $76
  • National CineMedia (NCMI) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $7.50
  • Nike (NKE) initiated with a Hold at China Renaissance, tgt $65.20
  • Oracle (ORCL) initiated with an Equal Weight at Stephens, tgt $167
  • OneStream (OS) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, tgt $27
  • ResMed (RMD) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
  • Robinhood (HOOD) initiated with a Buy at Compass Point, tgt $61
  • Salesforce (CRM) initiated with an Equal Weight at Stephens, tgt $311
  • Somnigroup (SGI) reinstated with a Neutral at Goldman Sachs, tgt $57
  • Vitesse Energy (VTS) resumed with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $28
  • XPeng (XPEV) assumed at Buy from Neutral at Nomura, tgt $30
  • Workiva (WK) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, tgt $111

• Econ Data (Thursday):
  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 220,000; prior 220,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.870 mln), Q4 Current Account Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$334.0 bln; prior -$131.4 bln), and March Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.com consensus 10.0; prior 18.1)
  • 10:00 ET: February Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 3.95 mln; prior 4.08 mln) and February Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%; prior -0.3%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -62 bcf)
• Earnings:
  • Monday (Mar 17)
    • Pre-Market: SAIC
    • After-Hours: GETY LPRO
  • Tuesday (Mar 18)
    • Pre-Market: HUYA BEKE TME GDS
    • After-Hours: ZTO
  • Wednesday (Mar 19)
    • Pre-Market: GIS KC OLLI SIG SRAD
      
    • After-Hours: FIVE WS
  • Thursday (Mar 20)
    • Pre-Market: ASO ACN CAL CMC DRI DBI FDS JBL PDD SCVL TITN ZK
    • After-Hours: FDX KLC LEN LAZR MU NKE CURV
  • Friday (Mar 21)
    • Pre-Market: NIO
    • After-Hours: CCL
  General Motors: 5,000 members at GM's Arlington, TX assembly plant join UAW strike