After Hours Report

The stock market exhibited mixed action today. The market started the session with losses at the index level, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) and the S&P 500 (+0.4%) closed with gains. 

There was an emerging view that stocks are due for a period of consolidation after a big run (the S&P 500 is up 6.3% in May), but that still hasn't materialized in a meaningful way. The continued resilience seen this morning acted as its own upside catalyst as the session progressed. 

The drop in market rates also contributed to the underlying positive bias. The 10-yr yield settled seven basis points lower at 4.46%, and the 2-yr yield settled eight basis points lower at 3.97%. This price action was driven in part by a cool Producer Price Index report for April (-0.5%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). It was just one report, though, on an economic data-heavy day. 

The calendar also included April reports for retail sales, and industrial production; weekly initial and continuing jobless claims; and May reports for the Philadelphia Fed Index, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and NAHB Housing Market Index that, collectively, were mixed relative to expectations.

The Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) lagged its peers through the entire session, reflecting pressure from losses in some mega caps. 

Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH 274.35, -33.66, -10.9%) was another notable laggard following a Wall Street Journal report that the DOJ is investigating the company for possible criminal Medicare fraud. UNH said it has not been informed of any such investigation.

Walmart (WMT 96.35, -0.48, -0.5%) was also in the headlines after it topped the quarterly consensus EPS estimate, yet its FY26 EPS guidance was conservative-looking relative to the consensus estimate, and the company warned that consumers are likely to see higher prices starting later this month and certainly in June due to the tariffs.

• S&P 500: +0.6% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.5% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.0% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -2.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: -6.1% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.5% month-over month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). That was the good news. The bad news is that the prior month was revised up to unchanged from a 0.4% decline. The Producer Price Index for final demand, less foods and energy, decreased 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), again good news, but the bad news (again) is that the prior month was revised up to 0.4% from -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 2.4%, versus an upwardly revised 3.4% (from 2.7%) in March, while the index for final demand, less foods and energy, was up 3.1%, versus an upwardly revised 4.0% (from 3.3%) in March.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the big drop in the index for final demand was driven by a 0.7% decline in the index for final demand services (the largest decline since December 2009). Over 40% of that 0.7% decline was driven by margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which dropped 6.1%. That suggests wholesalers were likely absorbing some tariff impacts, which is good for the end customer but not necessarily for earnings.
    
• Total retail sales increased 0.1% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following an upwardly revised 1.7% (from 1.4%) in March. Excluding autos, retail sales were also up 0.1% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase (from 0.5%) in March.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the pace of spending on goods decelerated in April, speaking to the tariff frontrunning evident in the strong sales for March and reflecting the consumer's cautious mindset following "Liberation Day" and the stock market's volatility.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 were unchanged at 229,000 (Briefing.com consensus 226,000), while continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 3 increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the initial jobless claims filings -- a leading indicator -- still reflect an otherwise solid labor market that will remain supportive of consumer spending, albeit perhaps at a slower pace in the face of higher prices.
• The May Empire State Manufacturing Index checked in at -9.2 (Briefing.com consensus 1.0) versus -8.1 in April. The May Philadelphia Fed Index checked in at -4.0 (Briefing.com consensus -6.0) versus -26.4 in March.
  • The key takeaway from these regional manufacturing reports is that the breakeven point between contraction and expansion is 0.0, so each reflects a contraction in activity in May versus April, somewhat faster for the Empire State report and somewhat slower for the Philadelphia Fed Index.
• Total industrial production was flat month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an unrevised 0.3% decline in March. The capacity utilization rate dipped to 77.7% (Briefing.com consensus 77.9%) from an unrevised 77.8% in March. Total industrial production increased 1.5% yr/yr while the capacity utilization rate was 1.9 percentage points below its long-run average.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing output was weak. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output still decreased 0.3%, presumably with the tariff uncertainty holding back total output.

Looking ahead to Friday, market participants receive the following economic data:

• 8:30 ET: April Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.383 mln; prior 1.324 mln) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.450 mln; prior 1.481 mln), April Import Prices (prior -0.1%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior 0.1%), Export Prices (prior 0.0%), and Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior -0.1%)
• 10:00 ET: Preliminary May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 55.0; prior 52.2)
• 16:00 ET: March net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $112.0 bln)

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC +0.2%
• Asia: Nikkei -1.0%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Shanghai -0.7%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -1.44 @ 61.67
• Nat Gas -0.12 @ 3.71
• Gold +34.60 @ 3223.50
• Silver +0.20 @ 32.68
• Copper +0.04 @ 4.69

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Applied Materials (AMAT) beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs in-line... AMAT down 4.6%
• CAVA Group (CAVA) beats by $0.08, beats on revs, comps +10.8%; reaffirms FY25 comps at +6-8%; increases FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance... CAVA down 4.3%
• Doximity (DOCS) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY26 revs below consensus... DOCS down 15.8%
• Globant (GLOB) misses by $0.08, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus, lowers FY25 guidance... GLOB down 25.0%
• Take-Two (TTWO) reports Q4 (Mar) results, beats on net bookings; guides Q1 EPS and net bookings in-line... TTWO down 2.5%
• V2X (VVX) announces sale of 2,000,000 shares of common stock in secondary offering by Vertex Aerospace... VVX down 4.7%

Fair Value for Friday, May 16:

• S&P 500: 5,936
• Nasdaq 100: 21,416
• DJIA: 43,403

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) misses by $0.03, misses on revs; guides FY26 revs below consensus; announces 12% increase in quarterly cash dividend
  • Alibaba (BABA) misses by $0.04, misses on revs; approves special dividend
  • Birkenstock Holding Plc (BIRK) beats by €0.01, beats on revs
  • Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) misses by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q1 EPS mostly above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; announces $200 mln share repurchase program
  • Canadian Solar (CSIQ) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY25 revs below consensus
  • Capital Southwest Corp. (CSWC) reports EPS in-line
  • Cisco (CSCO) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, mid-point of revs above consensus
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs
  • Deere (DE) beats by $1.08, beats on revs; lowers FY25 net income guidance
  • Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) reports Q1 results; raises outlook
  • Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) sees Q1 EPS above consensus
  • dLocal Limited (DLO) beats by $0.03, beats on revs
  • Dorian LPG (LPG) provides update for Q4
  • DXC Technology (DXC) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line
  • Foot Locker (FL) sees Q1 EPS below consensus
  • Gambling.com Group Ltd. (GAMB) beats by $0.22, beats on revs; reaffirms FY25 revs guidance
  • Ibotta (IBTA) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line
  • ITT (ITT) hosts 2025 capital markets day; announces new long-term targets, driving to over $12 of eps by 2030
  • Jack In The Box (JACK) beats by $0.09, misses on revs
  • KE Holdings (BEKE) beats by RMB 0.21, beats on revs
  • Luminar Technologies (LAZR) beats by $0.21, beats on revs
  • National Grid (NGG) reports FY25 results; provides outlook
  • NetEase (NTES) beats by RMB3.60, beats on revs
  • New Fortress Energy (NFE) reports Q1 (Mar) results, also completes sale of assets and operations in Jamaica
  • Nextracker (NXT) beats by $0.32, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; Also announces acquisition of Bentek for $78 mln
  • NICE (NICE) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS above consensus, reaffirms FY25 revs guidance
  • Owens Corning (OC) presents long-term enterprise strategy update at it Investor Day; approves buyback
  • Siemens AG (SIEGY) reports Q2 results; reaffirms outlook
  • Sigma Lithium (SGML) beats by $0.04; revs in-line
  • Steris (STE) beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • VEON (VEON) reports Q1 results; reaffirms outlook
  • Walmart (WMT) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line, U.S. comps up 4.5%; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance and net sales guidance (cc)
• General News
  • President Trump says India offered to remove all tariffs on goods from U.S., according to Bloomberg
  • Top Iranian official Ali Shamkhani says Iran is prepared to sign nuclear deal with President Trump in exchange for removal of all sanctions, according to NBC News
  • House Energy and Commerce Committee & House Agriculture Committee vote to advance large reconciliation bill; House Speaker Mike Johnson is hoping for final passage before Memorial Day (bill includes tax cuts, spending cuts (Medicaid and green energy cuts), deregulation, energy reform, immigration reform, and a debt ceiling increase of $4 trillion)
  • Conservative Republicans are upset about demands from New York lawmakers that the state and local tax deduction get increased in large reconciliation bill, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend Ukraine peace talks today, according to BBC
  • U.S. and China officials met in South Korea, according to Bloomberg
  • U.S. considers lowering capital requirements for banks, according to Financial Times
  • IEA releases forecast for global oil demand/supply growth
  • 10x Genomics (TXG) reaches a settlement agreement with Bruker Corporation, successfully resolving all outstanding worldwide patent litigation and disputes between the two companies; 10x expects that Bruker will pay $68 million in equal quarterly installments between the third quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026
  • AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) receives authorization from Health Canada to Initiate the Phase 1 Clinical Trial of ABCL635 for Vasomotor symptoms due to menopause
  • Amazon (AMZN) aiming to eliminate jobs in devices & services unit, according to Reuters
  • Apple (AAPL): President Trump wants Apple to stop moving iPhone production to India, according to Bloomberg
  • Biohaven (BHVN) extends PDUFA date of Troriluzole NDA
  • Boeing (BA) 737 Max crash victims will meet with DOJ tomorrow, according to Reuters
  • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) awarded a $209.9 mln US Air Force task order for Nimbus
  • Braskem SA (BAK) provides Petrobras (PBR) contract update
  • Capital One (COF) reports April card metrics
  • Coinbase Global (COIN) details cybersecurity event; still investigating the affected data
  • Cisco (CSCO) announces that Scott Herren has decided to retire as Executive Vice President and CFO effective July 26, 2025; Appoints Mark Patterson, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, to succeed Mr. Herren
  • Cybin (CYBN) has engaged Thermo Fisher Scientific to support the Phase 3 clinical supply and potential commercial manufacturing of CYB003, the Company’s proprietary deuterated psilocin program in Phase 3 development for the adjunctive treatment of Major Depressive Disorder
  • Discover Financial Services (DFS) reports April card metrics
  • DXC Technology (DXC) extends CEO and CFO employment agreements to strengthen focus on growth and shareholder value
  • Ericsson (ERIC) commits to R&D investment in Japan
  • General Dynamics (GD) and Bath Iron Works awarded a $216.5 mln modification against a previously awarded US Navy contract
  • Harley-Davidson (HOG): H Partners Obtains Clear Referendum for Change at Harley-Davidson’s 2025 Annual Meeting
  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reports April card metrics
  • LKQ (LKQ) amends Ancora Catalyst, Engine Capital, and affiliates cooperation agreement
  • Luminar Technologies (LAZR) appoints Paul Ricci as CEO, on or about May 21
  • Marex Group plc (MRX) announces that Roger Nagioff has stepped down from the Group Board. Roger represented private equity investors on the Board
  • Merck (MRK) announces Phase 3 KEYNOTE-B96 trial met primary endpoint of progression-free survival in patients with platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer whose tumors expressed PD-L1 and in all comers
  • Merck (MRK): Announces U.S FDA approval for WELIREG (belzutifan), Merck’s oral hypoxia-inducible factor-2 alpha (HIF-2a) inhibitor, for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older with locally advanced, unresectable, or metastatic pheochromocytoma or paraganglioma
  • Mesoblast (MESO) receives seven years of Orphan-Drug exclusive approval for Ryoncil from FDA
  • Mizuho Financial (MFG) to increase dividends
  • Penske Auto (PAG) increases quarterly cash dividend 3.3% to $1.26/share from $1.22/share and approves an additional $250 million in securities repurchase authorization
  • Plexus (PLXS) approved $100 mln new share repurchase program
  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) selected by NASA to launch its Aspera mission, an astrophysics science mission designed to study the formation and evolution of galaxies and provide new insights into how the universe works
  • Spire Global (SPIR) selected by the U.S Space Force’s Space Systems Command for an Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity, 10-year contract that has a ceiling of $237 million and is part of the Department of Defense’s broader Space Test Program
  • Starbucks (SBUX) wants to revamp its business in China, according to Bloomberg
  • State Street (STT) announces that its Board of Directors has appointed Sara Mathew as independent Lead Director effective immediately
  • Takeda Pharma (TAK): The New England Journal of Medicine publishes data from Phase 2b Trial of Oral Orexin Receptor 2 Agonist Oveporexton (TAK-861) in people with narcolepsy Type 1
  • UnitedHealth (UNH) under criminal investigation for alleged Medicare fraud, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • U.S. GoldMining (USGO) provides update on exploration targets at the Whistler Gold-Copper Project, Alaska
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) demonstrates ALPL receptor-mediated blood-brain barrier transport of novel AAV capsids in molecular therapy publication
  • Waste Mgmt names John Morris President, he will also retain his existing role as COO

• Upgrades:
  • CAE (CAE) upgraded to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank
  • Centerspace (CSR) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $69
  • Cisco (CSCO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $75
  • CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $5
  • Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $10
  • Petrobras (PBR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $15.30
  • Pinterest (PINS) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $40
• Downgrades:
  • Alcoa (AA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $31
  • Ares Management (ARES) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • Azul (AZUL) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
  • Americold (COLD) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotiabank, tgt $20
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $425
  • Endava (DAVA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $17
  • Dick's Sporting (DKS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $216
  • GeoPark (GPRK) downgraded to Underperform at Bradesco BBI
  • Grove Collaborative (GROV) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Telsey Advisory Group, tgt $1.20
  • Hamilton Lane (HLNE) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
  • JetBlue (JBLU) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
  • Luminar (LAZR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan\
  • MAA (MAA) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James, tgt $175
  • Nkarta (NKTX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair
  • NexPoint Residential (NXRT) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
  • Rubrik (RBRK) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $86
  • Rentokil Initial (RTO) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein
  • Shoals (SHLS) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $4
  • Virtu Financial (VIRT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $43
• Others:
  • Acurx (ACXP) assumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $8
  • Bank of America (BAC) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $53
  • Bank of Montreal (BMO) assumed at Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotiabank
  • CIBC (CM) assumed with an Outperform at Scotiabank
  • Citigroup (C) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $83
  • Citizens Financial (CFG) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $57
  • Eaton (ETN) initiated with an Outperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $380
  • First Citizens (FCNCA) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $2,400
  • Fifth Third (FITB) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $52
  • GeneDx (WGS) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $88
  • Hasbro (HAS) assumed with a Neutral at DA Davidson, tgt $75
  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $20
  • JPMorgan (JPM) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $305
  • KeyCorp (KEY) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $18
  • Mattel (MAT) assumed with a Buy at DA Davidson, tgt $30
  • M&T Bank (MTB) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $230
  • NeoGenomics (NEO) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim
  • Oncology Institute (TOI) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research, tgt $7
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) initiated with a Neutral at Roth Capital, tgt $210
  • Personalis (PSNL) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim; tgt $6
  • PNC Financial (PNC) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $233
  • Regions Financial (RF) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $31
  • Royal Bank of Canada (RY) assumed with an Outperform at Scotiabank
  • Rubrik (RBRK) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $97
  • SPX Technologies (SPXC) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley Securities, tgt $195
  • TD Bank (TD) assumed with a Sector Perform at Scotiabank
  • Truist Financial (TFC) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $44
  • Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research, tgt $55
  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $60
  • Webtoon (WBTN) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $11
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $83
  • WEX (WEX) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer

• Econ Data (Friday):
  • 08:30 ET: April Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.383 mln; prior 1.324 mln) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.450 mln; prior 1.481 mln)
  • 08:30 ET: April Import Prices (prior -0.1%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior 0.1%), Export Prices (prior 0.0%), and Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior -0.1%)
  • 10:00 ET: Preliminary May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 55.0; prior 52.2)
  • 16:00 ET: March net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $112.0 bln)
• Earnings:
  • Monday (May 12)
    • Pre-Market: CTRI DOLE WTRG FTRE FOXA HBM MAC MNDY NRG RDNT METC SBH SDRL SWX SRAD SGRY PRKS
    • After-Hours: ACHC ARWR BCO CNNE DVA GETY GCT HTZ HPK INDI IAS MLNK NFE PLUG POWI RPD RPAY SPG SARO MODG VTLE XENE ZI
  • Tuesday (May 13)
    • Pre-Market: CAMT IMOS CYBR HUYA IGT JD LEGN LOAR ONON PSFE SE SLAB TME UAA
    • After-Hours: CAE ECG EXEL KRMN KLC OKLO WBTN
  • Wednesday (May 14)
    • Pre-Market: ARCO CLBT DT DAVA GLBE KRNT RSKD SRRK SFL SONY TSEM
      
    • After-Hours: BOOT CSWC CSCO DLO DXC IBTA JACK LAZR NXT STE
  • Thursday (May 15)
    • Pre-Market: WMS BABA BIRK CSIQ DE GAMB BEKE MRX NTES WMT ZK
    • After-Hours: AMAT CAVA DOCS GLOB TTWO
  • Friday (May 16)
    • Pre-Market: BRC FLO RBC
    • After-Hours: None
  General Motors: 5,000 members at GM's Arlington, TX assembly plant join UAW strike