After Hours Report

Updated: 18-Jun-25 17:08 ET

Smith & Wesson Brands fired on after earnings miss

If one didn't know any better, today was just a run-of-the-mill day for the stock market. The major indices were little changed, but it wasn't an ordinary day. Today was a day filled with geopolitical intrigue and wonderment about the Federal Reserve's outlook.

The Israel-Iran conflict took precedence as an early driver. Stocks moved higher, keying on a remark from President Trump, who said there is still time for Iran to negotiate. The idea that a diplomatic solution has not been written off, despite the president's take yesterday that his patience with Iran is wearing thin, was a welcome headline consideration.

It would be remiss not to add, though, that the president also said Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and that later this week or next week will be "big." That view mitigated some of the excitement around the first headline, yet stocks held their ground in positive territory leading up to the FOMC decision and release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at 2:00 p.m. ET.

As expected, the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, but the SEP was confounding in that it showed a median estimate for two rate cuts before the end of the year, the same as in the March SEP, but an increase in the median estimate for PCE inflation to 3.0% from 2.7% and an increase in the median estimate for core PCE inflation to 3.1% from 2.8% for 2025. The median estimate for real GDP growth, meanwhile, was lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%, and the median estimate for the unemployment rate bumped up to 4.5% from 4.4%.

Fed Chair Powell's overarching message in the press conference, which began at 2:30 p.m. ET, is that uncertainty remains elevated and that the Fed needs more time to assess incoming data before determining its next policy move. He also expressed an expectation for some meaningful inflation in coming months on account of the tariffs.

Stocks retreated from higher levels, and Treasury yields rose, in the wake of the FOMC decision and press conference, but the reaction function was fairly constrained given the magnitude of the event. The S&P 500 finished the day flat, the 2-yr note yield settled unchanged at 3.95%, and the 10-yr note yield settled the session up one basis point at 4.40%.

In brief, while buying efforts faded, there wasn't a lot of conviction on the part of sellers.

Sector performances reflected the reserved action. Four sectors finished higher. The information technology sector (+0.4%) was the biggest gainer. Seven sectors finished lower, with energy (-0.7%) and communication services (-0.7%) in a dead heat for biggest loser, only neither was down that much.

WTI crude futures traded above $75.00/bbl earlier in the day but settled up just 0.4% at $73.56/bbl, coming off the boil as the president dangled the carrot of a possible diplomatic solution.

In other developments, the CBOE Volatility Index declined 6.2% to 20.26; initial jobless claims remained at a relatively low 245,000, and housing starts in May fell to their lowest level in five years.

S&P 500: +1.7% YTD
Nasdaq: +1.2% YTD
DJIA: -0.9% YTD
S&P 400: -3.1%
Russell 2000: -5.3% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 decreased by 5,000 to 245,000 (Briefing.com consensus 253,000), while continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 7 decreased by 6,000 to 1.945 million.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it covers the week in which the survey for the June employment report is conducted, and with initial jobless claims still at a relatively low level, there will be a basis for economists to expect another decent gain in nonfarm payrolls (all things considered).
Housing starts declined 9.8% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.356 million), while building permits declined 2.0% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.393 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.411 million).
- The key takeaway from the report is that housing starts are weak, sitting at their lowest level since May 2020; moreover, a 2.7% month-over-month decline in single-unit permits doesn't connote an encouraging outlook for starts.

Overseas:

Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC -0.4%
Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng -1.1%, Shanghai flat

Commodities:

Crude Oil +0.29 @ 73.56
Nat Gas +0.13 @ 3.99
Gold +1.40 @ 3408.20
Silver -0.23 @ 36.93
Copper +0.04 @ 4.85

After-Hours Spotlight:

Comstock Mining (LODE) files for 2.2 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders... LODE up 0.7%
Galapagos NV (GLPG) presented new data at ICML 2025 From Cohort 3 of ATALANTA-1 in relapsed/refractory Indolent NHL Patients, demonstrating high complete response and MRD negativity rates With CAR-T Candidate GLPG5101... GLPG unchanged
Prothena (PRTA) initiates an approximate 63% reduction in its workforce to substantially reduce its operating costs to those necessary to support its remaining wholly owned programs, its obligations to partnered programs, and its anticipated business development activities... PRTA up 7.0%
Simulations Plus (SLP) delays Q3 reporting date; reaffirms Q3 and FY25 revenue guidance... SLP up 4.2%
Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) misses by $0.03, misses on revs; persistent inflation, high interest rates, and uncertainty caused by tariff concerns weighed on results... SWBI down 13.2%

Fair Value for Friday, June 20:

S&P 500: 6,074
Nasdaq 100: 21,813
DJIA: 42,265

Today's News Summary:

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

Earnings/Guidance (Full E arnings Calendar):
- Allstate (ALL) announced May estimated catastrophe losses of $777 mln or $614 mln, after-tax
- Chemours (CC) provides update on second quarter 2025 outlook; sees Q2 net sales at high end of the original range, now anticipating a sequential mid-teens increase
- GMS (GMS) beats by $0.19, beats on revs
- Korn/Ferry (KFY) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line
- La-Z-Boy (LZB) misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line
- Marvell (MRVL) in slide presentation sees Marvell data center TAM CAGR of 35% from 2023-2028, rising from $21 bln to $94 bln
- Nucor (NUE) guides Q2 EPS above consensus
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) guides Q2 EPS below consensus
General News
- FOMC votes unanimously to leave fed funds rate target unchanged at 4.25-4.50%; dot plot still projects two rate cuts by end of 2025; Fed raises PCE inflation estimate and lowers real GDP growth estimate for 2025
- White House officials say the next 24-48 hours are critical to determine if a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible or if President Trump will order U.S. military action against Iran (EIS, USO, XLE), according to ABC News
- President Trump is moving away from diplomacy and toward U.S. involvement in Iran, according to Politico
- President Trump considering a range of options, including US strike against Iran, according to WSJ
- President Trump tells reporters that he will be meeting with his national security team; says he has an "idea" what he wants to do, but has not made a final decision
- Iran preparing missiles for strikes on U.S. bases if U.S. enters the war. Iran could also mine the Strait of Hormuz, according to NY Times
- President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Axios
- A military official from Israel says it could strike the Fordow nuclear site on its own, according to WSJ
- Senate passes legislation that establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins. The legislation now heads to the House where Republicans are considering changes, according to Politico
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to vote on large reconciliation bill next week, but negotiations among members with disagreements are continuing, according to Politico
- President Trump extends TikTok deadline further, according to WSJ
- Fitch says U.S. fiscal outlook remains challenging despite near-term revenue boost
- The Trump administration aiming to ease capital rule involving Treasury trading, according to Bloomberg
- Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo says "I had a very good phone conversation with President Trump, who informed me that he left urgently yesterday due to the situation in the Middle East. We agreed to work together to soon reach an agreement on various issues that concern us today"
- US will end guidance for recommended 1-2 drink limit, according to Reuters
- AbbVie (ABBV) announces "positive" topline results from its Phase 3 TEMPLE multicenter, randomized, double-blind, head-to-head study evaluating the tolerability, safety and efficacy of atogepant compared to the highest tolerated dose of topiramate in adult patients with a history of four or more migraine days per month
- Amazon Ads (AMZN) and Disney Advertising (DIS) announce collaboration
- AstraZeneca (AZN): Eccogene announces first patient dosed in Phase 1b trial of AZD5004/ECC5004, a novel oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, in China
- Boeing (BA) emergency power system was likely active prior to Air India crash, according to WSJ
- Butterfly Network (BFLY): Glenview Capital (Larry Robbins) lowered active stake to 8.7% (about 19.6 mln shares, previously 22.7 mln)
- Dana Inc (DAN) agreed to repurchase 14,268,505 shares of common stock from the Icahn Group (IEP) at a purchase price of $17.58 per share
- Fluor (FLR) awarded a $560 mln modification to previously awarded US Navy contract
- Freddie Mac (FMCC): Michael T. Hutchins agreed to extend his tenure in the dual role of President and Interim Chief Executive Officer of Freddie Mac through the earlier of the appointment of a permanent CEO or September 20, 2025
- Full House Resorts (FLL): Chief Executive Officer bought 276,300 shares worth more than $1.3 mln
- Greystone Housing Impact Investors LP (GHI) lowered cash distribution to the Partnership’s Beneficial Unit Certificate holders to $0.30 per BUC (prior $0.37)
- Hasbro (HAS): report of 3% global workforce reduction, according to WSJ
- L3Harris (LHX) awarded a $487 mln US Army fee for the modernization of enterprise terminals, depot and engineering services support
- Merck (MRK): IDeate-Prostate01 phase 3 trial of Ifinatamab deruxtecan initiated in patients with pretreated metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer
- Microsoft (MSFT) threatens to walk away as OpenAI restructuring talks stall over equity, revenue terms, according to FT
- NIKE (NKE) aiming to delay Kim Kardashian’s Skims label launch, according to Bloomberg
- RTX (RTX) awarded a $299.7 mln modification to previously awarded US Navy contract
- Scholar Rock (SRRK) reports positive Phase 2 embraze trial results demonstrating statistically significant preservation of lean mass with apitegromab during tirzepatide-induced weight loss
- SkyWest (SKYW) orders 60 new Embraer E175 aircraft

Upgrades:
- Analog Devices (ADI) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $270
- Genworth (GNW) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette, tgt $9
- REV Group (REVG) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $46
- SmartStop Self Storage (SMA) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $44
Downgrades:
- Sarepta (SRPT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $24
- Smart Share (EM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $1.25
- Sunrun (RUN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $5
- UBS (UBS) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
- Zoetis (ZTS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel, tgt $160
Others:
- Alkami (ALKT) assumed with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $40
- Ardelyx (ARDX) assumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $10
- Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) assumed with an Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $72
- Brookfield Business Partners (BBU) assumed with an Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $33
- Brookfield Corp. (BN) assumed with Outperform, named Top Pick at RBC Capital, tgt $81
- Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) assumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $41
- Crescent Biopharma (CBIO) initiated with an Outperform at LifeSci Capital, tgt $22
- Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN) assumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $9
- Equinox Gold (EQX) resumed with an Outperform at BMO Capital
- Ferguson (FERG) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $280
- Loma Negra (LOMA) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $16
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $170
- Microchip (MCHP) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $70
- nCino (NCNO) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $30
- Nordson (NDSN) initiated with a Peer Perform at Wolfe Research
- onsemi (ON) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $55
- Phillips 66 (PSX) initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $130
- Q2 Holdings (QTWO) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $115
- SanDisk (SNDK) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $61
- Valero (VLO) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $135

Econ Data (Friday):
- 08:30 ET: June Philadelphia Fed Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3; prior 4.0)
- 10:00 ET: May Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior -1.0%)
Earnings:Monday (June 16)
Pre-Market: None
After-Hours: LEN
Tuesday (June 17)
Pre-Market: JBL WLY
After-Hours: LZB
Wednesday (June 18)
Pre-Market: GMS KFY
After-Hours: SWBI
Thursday (June 19)
Pre-Market: None
After-Hours: None
Friday (June 20)
Pre-Market: ACN KMX DRI KR
After-Hours: None