After Hours Report

The stock market saw mixed action today leading up to and in response to the FOMC's decision to cut the Fed funds rate target range by 25 basis points, with mega-cap weakness stifling index-level growth despite broader strength. 

If someone had taken a glance at the market just after the open and then logged off until the close, they would assume that an uneventful session had taken place, as the major averages finished similar to how they started.

Barring a pocket of increased volatility that followed the FOMC announcement, that assumption would be largely correct. The initial spike in reaction to the announcement, however, sent the DJIA (+0.6%) to a new all-time high level of 46,261.95 and brought the S&P 500 (-0.1%) within three points of its own record high. Even the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) climbed back to its flatline before a sharp sell-off sent the major averages to session lows.

While today's decision brought about a short period of volatility, the 25-basis point cut had been fully priced in for some time. Market participants were arguably more eager to see how the results of the FOMC meeting would shape expectations for further easing. 

Officials remain split on the number of additional cuts this year, with nine of the 19 participants projecting just one more, ten favoring two, and one signaling no further cuts at all.

Despite differing opinions on the number of rate cuts the market will receive this year, today's meeting still increased the probability of their happening.

The CME FedWatch tool now assigns an 89.9% probability of at least a 25-basis point rate cut at the October 29 FOMC meeting, up from 78.2% yesterday. Similarly, the odds of an even further rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the December 10 meeting now stand at 83.9%, up from 72.8% yesterday.

While rate cut expectations through the end of the year at least temporarily solidified, sentiments have shifted about further easing in 2026. The 2026 median projection sees only one rate cut in 2026 versus the three rate cuts that had been priced into the Fed funds futures market.

Ultimately, the market took all of these developments in stride, shaking off the afternoon volatility and finishing in a familiar mixed fashion.

The information technology (-0.7%), industrials (-0.5%), consumer discretionary (-0.3%), communication services (-0.1%), and real estate (-0.1%) sectors finished lower, with mega-cap names coming under pressure for the duration of the day. NVIDIA (NVDA 170.29, -4.59, -2.62%) had a particularly rough session as the Financial Times reported the Chinese government has asked domestic companies to stop purchasing NVIDIA's products.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished with a 0.4% loss, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.1%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.1%), though by a substantially slimmer margin than earlier levels. 

Smaller-cap names outside of the S&P 500 also saw some of their strength eroded following the FOMC announcement, as the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.2%) both finished well beneath session highs that saw the indices hold earlier gains that exceeded 1.0%. 

Elsewhere, the financials (+1.0%) and consumer staples (+0.9%) were the top beneficiaries of today's action, while four other sectors closed with more modest gains. 

Separately, StubHub Holdings (STUB 22.00, -1.50, -6.38%) drew solid interest, pricing at $23.50 vs. the $22-$25 expected range and opening for trading with an 8% gain at $25.35, before finishing the day on a lackluster note beneath its offering price. 

While the Fed confirmed more easing is on the horizon, the pace beyond this year remains in doubt, ensuring monetary policy will stay a central driver of market action into year-end.

U.S. Treasuries endured some midweek volatility surrounding the expected FOMC rate cut announcement before ending the session at their lowest levels of the day. The 2-year note yield settled up four basis points to 3.55%, and the 10-year note yield settled up five basis points to 4.08%. 

• Nasdaq Composite: +15.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +12.2% YTD
• DJIA: +8.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +8.0% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: + 4.7% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Total housing starts declined 8.5% month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.307 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1.375 million) from a revised 1.429 million (from 1.428 million) in July. Building permits declined 3.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.312 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1.370 million) from an unrevised 1.362 million in July.
  • The key takeaway from the report is the weakness in single-unit starts (-7.0% month-over-month) and single-unit permits (-2.2%), which is a reflection of affordability constraints for builders and prospective homeowners alike. Strikingly, single-unit starts in the South—the nation's largest homebuilding region—plunged 17.0% in August.
• The weekly MBA Mortgage Index jumped 29.7% to follow last week's 9.2% increase. The Refinance Index spiked 57.7% while the Purchase Index was up 2.9%.

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC -0.4%
• Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng +1.8%, Shanghai +0.4%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -0.50 @ 64.06
• Nat Gas +0.00 @ 3.10
• Gold -7.30 @ 3718.00
• Silver -0.70 @ 42.19
• Copper -0.06 @ 4.63

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Bullish (BLSH) reports Q2 results...BLSH +3.7%
• Cracker Barrel (CBRL) misses by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs below consensus; $100 mln share repurchase authorization...CBRL -8.6%
• NRG Energy (NRG) raises FY25 EPS guidance...NRG -1.1%
• Nucor (NUE) guides Q3 EPS below consensus...NUE -5.0%
• Super Group (SGHC) raises FY25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance...SGHC -0.1%
• WhiteFiber (WYFI) reports Q2 results, slightly beats on revenue...WYFI -4.2%

Fair Value for Thursday, September 18:

• S&P 500: 6,661
• Nasdaq 100: 24,476
• DJIA: 46,380

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • General Mills (GIS) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; Reaffirms FY26 guidance
• General News
  • Democrats oppose continuing resolution to fund government, increasing risk of government shutdown (funding bills require 60 Senate votes), according to NY Times
  • EPA confirms renewable fuel standards supplemental rule, addresses small refinery exemptions
  • Drug companies pledged to invest $350 bln in U.S. after President Trump's tariff threats, according to WSJ
  • US-UK pact will boost advances in drug discovery, create tens of thousands of jobs and transform lives
  • AAR Corp (AIR) signs multi-year support services agreement with low-cost carrier Cebu Pacific
  • Alibaba (BABA) adds China Unicom as a customer, according to Bloomberg
  • Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales in China declined ahead of iPhone 17 introduction, according to Bloomberg
  • Arrow Electronics (ARW) announces that William Austen has been named Interim President and CEO, effective today
  • AstraZeneca (AZN) reports update on the RESOLUTE Phase III trial for Fasenra in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
  • AstraZeneca (AZN) reports Saphnelo met primary endpoint in TULIP-SC
  • Baker Hughes (BKR) signs agreement with Halfaya Gas Company to advance Flare Reduction Project in Iraq
  • Baker Hughes (BKR) announces Wednesday a multi-year agreement with Petrobras (PBR) to extend the deployment of the Blue Marlin and Blue Orca stimulation vessels, supporting optimization of offshore oil and gas production in Brazil’s post and pre-salt fields
  • Blaize Holdings (BZAI) forms strategic collaboration with Technology Control Company
  • Boeing (BA): The families of four passengers who died in the catastrophic crash of Air India Flight 171 have filed a product defect and negligence lawsuit against The Boeing Company and Honeywell International (HON)
  • BWX Technologies (BWXT) awarded a contract valued at $1.5 bln by the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration
  • Canopy Growth (CGC) appoints Tom Stewart as Chief Financial Officer
  • Celldex (CLDX) presents data demonstrating Barzolvolimab Improves Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria Independent of Baseline Immunoglobulin E levels in Phase 2 Study at EADV Congress 2025
  • Coherent (COHR) announces high-performance wire grid polarizes for isolators in datacom transceivers
  • Cohu (COHU) secures additional Neon orders, raises 2025 forecasted HBM revenue to $10-11 million
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) announces Threat AI, an agentic threat intelligence system built to automate the most complex, time-consuming intelligence workflows and accelerate outcomes
  • Dayforce (DAY): Goldman Sachs (GS) preps $6 bln loan package to fund Thoma Bravo’s Dayforce buyout, according to Bloomberg
  • Deutsche Bank (DB): DWS preps €2 bln sale of NorthC Data Centres amid Europe’s digital infrastructure M&A wave, according to FT
  • EQT AB (EQBBF) considering IPO of Reworld that could raise $1 bln, according to Bloomberg
  • Garmin (GRMN) announces historic research collaboration with King's College London; Strategic agreement leverages Garmin biometric data for digital health research
  • General Motors (GM), SAIC in early talks to renew China JV as Detroit automaker seeks rebound in key market, according to Bloomberg
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to invest $30 billion in Manufacturing and R&D in the US over next 5 years
  • Honeywell (HON): DOE announced the expansion of the Quantum-in-Space Collaboration with three new signatories: IonQ (IONQ), Honeywell (HON), and the Electric Power Board of Chattanooga
  • Incyte (INCY) announces new 24-week Phase 3 Data from the STOP-HS Clinical Trial Program of Povorcitinib in Hidradenitis Suppurativa at EADV 2025
  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) increases quarterly dividend to $1.50/share from $1.40/share
  • Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) announces that the positive results from the Phase 1 healthy volunteer clinical trial of KT-621, its first-in-class, oral STAT6 degrader, will be featured in two separate late-breaking oral presentations at the European Academy of Dermatology & Venereology Congress
  • Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (LXRX): Pilavapadin provides meaningful pain reduction in adults with diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain in data presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes and NEUROdiab Annual Meetings
  • Lightwave Logic (LWLG) extends term of CEO Yves LeMaitre; CFO and COO Jim Marcelli to retire
  • Lilly's (LLY) oral GLP-1, orforglipron, demonstrated meaningful weight loss and cardiometabolic improvements in complete ATTAIN-1 results published in The New England Journal of Medicine
  • Microsoft (MSFT): House of Representatives to roll out Microsoft Copilot as first step in AI integration, according to Axios
  • monday.com (MNDY) expands AI-Powered agents, CRM suite, and enterprise-grade capabilities
  • Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) to Present New Data from Phase 2 Study of Osavampator in Adults with Major Depressive Disorder at 38th Annual Psych Congress 2025
  • New Fortress Energy (NFE) reaches agreement on contract terms with the Third-Party Procurement Office and the Puerto Rico Public-Private Partnerships Authority for long-term supply of liquefied natural gas to Puerto Rico
  • Nokia (NOK) announces changes to its leadership team and the creation of Technology and AI and Corporate Development Organizations
  • Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) announces the presentation of preclinical data from GS-6791/NX-0479, a novel IRAK4 protein degrader discovered as part of the company’s ongoing research collaboration with Gilead Sciences
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) and United Kingdom Build Nation’s AI Infrastructure and Ecosystem to Fuel Innovation, Economic Growth and Jobs
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): China advised its technology companies to stop purchasing Nvidia chips, according to FT
  • Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) announces positive interim Phase 1 results for ORKA-001
  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR) will agree to GBP 750 mln UK AI deal during President Trump's UK visit, according to Sunday Times UK
  • PayPal (PYPL) and Google (GOOG) announce a multiyear strategic partnership focused on advancing several commerce solutions
  • Pembina Pipeline (PBA) receives CER approval for Alliance Pipeline settlement
  • Prudential (PRU) and PGIM enter into a partnership to construct and deliver a suite of multi-asset portfolio solutions for individual and institutional investors
  • RCI Hospitality (RICK) issues statement regarding New York Attorney General’s charges
  • Regeneron (REGN) Announces Positive Phase 3 Trial in Adults with Ultra-Rare Genetic Disorder Fibrodysplasia Ossificans Progressiva (FOP), Demonstrating that Garetosmab Prevents Greater than 99% of Abnormal Bone Formation
  • Reddit (RDT) in early talks with Google on new AI-focused content deal, eyes dynamic pricing, according to Bloomberg
  • Rhinebeck Bancorp (RBKB) appoints Matthew J. Smith as President and CEO, effective October 20
  • Roivant Sciences (ROIV) and Priovant Therapeutics announce positive results from the Phase 3 VALOR study evaluating brepocitinib in dermatomyositis
  • RTX (RTX) awarded $670 mln modification to previously awarded Navy contract
  • Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) reports positive phase 3 results for Denifanstat for the treatment of moderate to severe acne to be presented at the EADV Congress 2025 by Partner Ascletis
  • Sanofi (SNY) reports brivekimig achieved positive results in hidradenitis suppurativa in phase 2a study
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR) entered settlement agreement with Department of Justice, provides revenue guidance
  • Silvercorp Metals (SVM) announces a normal course issuer bid commencing September 19, 2025, to acquire up to 8,747,245 of its own common shares
  • Tempus AI (TEM) awarded $60.6 mln ARPA-H NIH contract for ADAPT research support services
  • Tutor Perini (TPC) subsidiary awarded $41.9 million utility systems repair project
  • Uber (UBER) and Designer Brands Inc. (DBI), the parent company of DSW, announce a new partnership that brings DSW's vast selection of footwear and accessories to the Uber Eats platform
  • Unilever PLC (UL): Ben & Jerry’s co-founder Jerry Greenfield resigns from the company
  • United (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby in an interview says air travel demand is improving, which signals a stronger economy, according to Bloomberg
  • Via Transportation (VIA) provides update on ongoing royalties and supplemental damages against RideCo in patent infringement lawsuit
  • Weatherford (WFRD) announces tubular running services contract award with Petrobras
  • Wells Fargo (WFC): China removes exit ban on a Wells Fargo banker, according to Bloomberg
  • Willdan Group (WLDN) awarded a $15 million contract with the Southern California Regional Energy Network to deliver energy efficiency services for their commercial portfolio
  • Workday (WDAY): Elliott Investment Management issues statement on Workday
  • Zoom Communications (ZM) announces a $10 million, three-year commitment to expand access to AI education and opportunity

• Upgrades:
  • AbbVie (ABBV) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg, tgt $270
    
  • Kilroy Realty (KRC) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Scotiabank, tgt $47
    
  • Kroger (KR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Roth Capital, tgt $75
    
  • MasTec (MTZ) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $227
    
  • Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital, tgt $1,350
    
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg
  • Ormat Technologies (ORA) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $102
    
  • Ryan Specialty (RYAN) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $60
    
  • VTEX (VTEX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $6.50
    
  • Workday (WDAY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim, tgt $285
    
  • Workday (WDAY) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $235
    
  • Zillow Group (Z) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein, tgt $105
• Downgrades:
  • AMH (AMH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $37
    
  • Camden Property Trust (CPT) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $106
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg, tgt $830
    
  • FedEx (FDX) downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $243
    
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC, tgt $6.20
    
  • Hain Celestial (HAIN) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens, tgt $2
    
  • Merck (MRK) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg, tgt $90
    
  • Nintendo (NTDOY) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush
    
  • Progressive (PGR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $250
    
  • Tenaris (TS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $41
    
  • TPG RE Finance (TRTX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Citizens JMP
    
  • Vericel (VCEL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
• Others:
  • Arvinas (ARVN) assumed with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $16
    
  • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital, tgt $62
  • Avient (AVNT) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc, tgt $48
    
  • Biohaven (BHVN) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $28
    
  • CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX) assumed with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $3.50
    
  • Dianthus (DNTH) initiated with a Buy at Clear Street, tgt $100
    
  • Exelixis (EXEL) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $47
    
  • Exelixis (EXEL) assumed with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $40
    
  • Five Below (FIVE) initiated with a Market Perform at Bernstein, tgt $160
    
  • Hagerty (HGTY) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer, tgt $15
    
  • Janux Therapeutics (JANX) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $47
    
  • Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $60
    
  • MacroGenics (MGNX) assumed with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $3
    
  • Merus (MRUS) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $112
    
  • Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $72
    
  • SAB Biotherapeutics (SABS) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink, tgt $7
    
  • Scholar Rock (SRRK) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $45
    
  • StandardAero (SARO) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna, tgt $34
    
  • Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) initiated with an Underweight at Barclays, tgt $13
  • Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $15
  • Xencor (XNCR) assumed with an Underweight at Barclays, tgt $6

• Econ Data (Thursday):
  • 8:30 ET: September Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.com consensus 3.0; prior -0.3), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 245,000; prior 263,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.939 mln)
  • 10:00 ET: August Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior -0.1%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +71 bcf)
  • 16:00 ET: July Net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $150.8 bln)

• Earnings:
  • Monday (Sep 15)
    • Pre-Market: HAIN
    • After-Hours: PLAY
      
    Tuesday (Sep 16)
    • Pre-Market: FERG
    • After-Hours: None
      
  • Wednesday (Sep 17)
    • Pre-Market: CBRL GIS
      
    • After-Hours: None
      
  • Thursday (Sep 18)
    • Pre-Market: DRI FDS
    • After-Hours:  FDX LEN
  • Friday (Sep 19)
    • Pre-Market: None
    • After-Hours: None