After Hours Report

For the third consecutive day, the stock market ended lower at the index level, with the S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and DJIA (-0.4%) experiencing early pressure as mega-caps continued to underperform, and stronger-than-expected economic data dampened the market's expectations for additional rate cuts this year.

In particular, a strong initial jobless claims report (218,000; Briefing.com consensus: 238,000) reinforced signs of labor market strength, weighing on what has been a driver behind the case for further easing.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October slipped to 85.5% from 91.9% yesterday, while the odds of another cut in December fell to 60.5% from 73.3% yesterday.

Fed commentary further complicated expectations, with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (voting FOMC member) describing policy as "slightly restrictive" and "where it needs to be," while Fed Governor Stephen Miran (voting FOMC member) reiterated support for a series of cuts in a Bloomberg interview.

The stock market's ensuing retreat broadened past the mega-cap space, with advancers outpacing decliners by a roughly 3-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and Nasdaq. 

Mega-caps still faced pressure (the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.5% lower), but broader market weakness saw the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.5%) outperform the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.9%). 

The energy sector (+0.9%) was the only S&P 500 sector that closed with a gain, buoyed by bargain hunting after lagging much of the month. Refiners Valero Energy (VLO 174.46, +3.64, +2.13%) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC 196.48, +3.38, +1.75%) climbed to their best levels since April 2024. Despite a 3.7% week-to-date gain, the sector still trails the broader market for the month.

While the information technology sector finished flat, its reversal from a much wider loss played a pivotal role in lifting the major averages from early session lows.

NVIDIA (NVDA 177.68, +0.72, +0.40%) and Apple (AAPL 256.87, +4.56, +1.81%) both finished in positive territory, while Intel (INTC 33.99, +2.77, +8.87%) captured the widest gain across S&P 500 names as it saw momentum from a potential investment by Apple. 

Despite President Trump finalizing the much-anticipated TikTok deal in which Oracle (ORCL 291.24, -17.22, -5.58%) will be a prominent investor, the stock still succumbed to recent selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the health care (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.5%), and materials (-1.2%) sectors closed with the widest losses. 

Smaller-cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (-1.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.6%) also underperformed today amid fluctuating rate cut expectations.

On the earnings front, KB Home (KBH 62.03, -0.35, -0.56%) finished lower after an earnings beat, with broader weakness across homebuilder names pushing the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 1.5% lower.

Accenture (ACN 232.59, -6.49, -2.71%) and Jabil (JBL 210.01, -15.27, -6.78%) also retreated despite earnings beats, while CarMax's (KMX 45.60, -11.45, -20.06%) $0.40 EPS miss saw it finish as the worst-performing S&P 500 name. 

On the heels of today's retreat, tomorrow's release of the PCE Price Index will be closely watched, as another firm inflation reading could further dampen expectations for additional rate cuts.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Thursday with shorter tenors pacing a continuation of post-FOMC selling while the long bond outperformed, finishing modestly higher.

The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.77%, and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.17%.

Reviewing today's data:

• The third estimate for Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.3%) from the second estimate of 3.3%, spurred on by an upward revision to consumer spending. The GDP Price Deflator was revised up to 2.1% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.0%) from the second estimate of 2.0%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the consumer and the economy in aggregate were still operating in a solid state in Q2. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers were up 2.9% versus 1.9% in the second estimate.
• Weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 decreased by 14,000 to 218,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 238,000), while continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 13 decreased by 2,000 to 1.926 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that initial jobless claims—a leading indicator—are running at levels more consistent with a strong labor market than a weak one. If nothing else, there certainly wasn't a lot of firing activity in the week ending September 20.
• Durable goods orders increased 2.9% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus: -0.5%) following an upwardly revised 2.7% decline (from -2.8%) in July. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%) following a downwardly revised 1.0% increase (from 1.1%) in July.
  • The key takeaway from the report is the nondefense capital good orders, excluding aircraft—a proxy for business spending—jumped 0.6% on the heels of a 0.8% increase in July.
• The Advance International Trade in Goods deficit narrowed to $85.5 billion from an upwardly revised $102.8 billion (from -$103.6 billion) in July. Advance Retail Inventories were flat following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase (from 0.2%) in July, and Advance Wholesale Inventories were down 0.2% following a downwardly revised unchanged reading (from 0.2%) in July.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it had tariff policies written on it, evidenced by the fact that imports were $19.6 billion less than July imports, while exports were $2.3 billion less than July exports.
• Existing home sales dipped 0.2% month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million (Briefing.com consensus 3.99 million) from an unrevised 4.01 million in July. Sales were up 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that home sales in August were still constrained by high prices, higher mortgage rates, and limited supply. The biggest month-over-month increase in sales was in the Midwest, which is also the region with the lowest median price (by a lot).

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX -0.6%, FTSE -0.4%, CAC -0.4%
• Asia: Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai -0.0%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil +0.01 @ 65.01
• Nat Gas +0.04 @ 2.90
• Gold +2.50 @ 3770.90
• Silver +0.92 @ 45.10
• Copper -0.06 @ 4.76

After-Hours Spotlight:

• BGC Group (BGC) reaffirms Q3 guidance... BGC +0.0
• Costco (COST) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line, total company adjusted comparable sales of +6.4%...COST -0.6%
• Concentrix (CNXC) misses by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; Increases quarterly dividend...CNXC -21.7%
• President Trump signs executive order approving TikTok deal, according to CNBC...ORCL +1.4%

Fair Value for Friday, September 26:

• S&P 500: 6,660
• Nasdaq 100: 24,632
• DJIA: 46,268

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Accenture (ACN) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • Birkenstock Holding Plc (BIRK) sees Q4 revs above consensus
  • BlackBerry (BB) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs in-line; raises FY26 guidance
  • Blackstone (BX) announced intra-quarter realization update relating to the third quarter
  • CarMax (KMX) misses by $0.40, misses on revs
  • H.B. Fuller (FUL) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS in-line, reaffirms FY25 revs guidance
  • Jabil (JBL) beats by $0.37, beats on revs; guides NovQ EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • KB Home (KBH) beats by $0.11, beats on revs, homes delivered decreased 7%; Lowers FY25 housing revenue guidance
  • KKR (KKR) announces intra-quarter monetization activity update for the third quarter
  • Raymond James (RJF) reports August operating data
  • Steelcase (SCS) beats by $0.09, beats on revs
  • Stitch Fix (SFIX) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above two analyst estimate; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • TD Synnex (SNX) beats by $0.53, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Worthington Steel (WS) beats by $0.03, beats on revs
• General News
  • White House budget office instructs agencies to prepare for mass firings during potential government shutdown. Jobs will be eliminated that are not consistent with President Trump's priorities. Government funding deadline is Tuesday night, according to Politico
  • The Trump Administration is exploring taking additional stakes in companies that produce critical minerals, according to The Information
  • President Trump will meet with Turkish President Erdogan today where fighter jet and liquified natural gas purchases will be discussed, according to Bloomberg
  • EU New car registrations: -0.1% in August 2025 year-to-date; battery-electric 15.8% market share; Tesla registrations -36.6% yr/yr
  • China plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% over the next 10 years, according to NY Times
  • Swiss National Bank leaves SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%
  • Department of Commerce initiated an investigation to determine the effects on the national security of imports of personal protective equipment, medical consumables, and medical equipment including devices
  • AC Immune (ACIU): Peer-reviewed results from Phase 1b/2a Trial of Anti-pTau Active Immunotherapy from AC Immune Published in eBioMedicine
  • American Airlines (AAL): Victims of American Airlines crash file lawsuit, according to WSJ
  • American Tower (AMT) discloses that on September 23, the company and AT&T Mexico reached an agreement regarding a legal dispute over tower rents
  • Blue Owl (OWL): Qatar Investment Authority will partner with Blue Owl for data center investment, according to Bloomberg
  • Boeing (BA) awarded a $198 mln modification to previously awarded Navy contract
  • Bristol-Myers (BMY) builds on Eliquis (apixaban) Direct-to-Patient Program, Announces New BMS Patient Connect Platform Offering Sotyktu (deucravacitinib)
  • Brookfield Business Partners (BBU) approved plans to simplify corporate structure by converting Brookfield Business Partners LP and Brookfield Business Corporation (BBUC) into one publicly traded Canadian corporation
  • Cadence Design (CDNS) partnering with TSMC (TSM) to power next-generation technologies using AI flows and IP for TSMC advanced nodes and 3DFabric
  • Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) and FDA aligned on endpoints for HOPE-3 pivotal trial
  • Centrus Energy (LEU) outlines plans to add at least 300 new jobs in Southern Ohio with multi-billion-dollar investment
  • Cipher Mining (CIFR) signs 168 mw, 10-year AI Hosting agreement with Fluidstack
  • Circle (CRCL) examines reverse transactions involving its tokens, according to FT
  • Cognyte Software (CGNT) announces 1-year support agreement valued at over $20 mln with a tier-1 national security agency in EMEA
  • Delta (DAL) replacing power units on 300 Airbus (EADSY) jets due to toxic fume issue, according to WSJ
  • Dover (DOV) announces that Metcal, which is part of the company, launched its new PT4-4000 and PT4-8000 Series 4-Zone Circuit Board Preheaters and compatible circuit board holders
  • Eli Lilly (LLY): EU Commission authorizes medicine to treat early stages of Alzheimer's disease
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) halted experimental study for obesity patients, according to Bloomberg
  • Evaxion Biotech (EVAX) out-licenses vaccine candidate EVX-B3 to MSD (MRK)
  • Eve Holding's (EVEX) EVE UAM entered into a new Master Services Agreement with Embraer (ERJ) for the provision by Embraer to Eve of support services to develop an industrialization project
  • HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) has exceeded 20 Exahash per second of global Bitcoin mining capacity following the continued successful deployment of ASICs at its Phase 3 Valenzuela facility in Paraguay
  • HSBC Holdings (HSBC) demonstrates world’s first-known quantum-enabled algorithmic trading with IBM (IBM)
  • Immuneering (IMRX) announces 86% overall survival at 9 Months in first-line pancreatic cancer patients treated with Atebimetinib + mGnP
  • ING Groep (ING): Nine major European banks join forces to issue stablecoin
  • Inneventure (INV): Accelsius unveils two-phase cooling reference design, demonstrating billions in potential energy savings
  • Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) announces planned retirement of Board Chair, John Day, effective December 31, 2025; The Board has elected Don Liu, current Chair of the Nomination and Corporate Governance Committee, to serve as Chair of the Board beginning on November 4, 2025
  • Lightspeed (LSPD) announces strategic appointments to its Board to further position the company for profitable growth
  • Live Nation (LYV): UK CMA secures changes from Ticketmaster following Oasis tickets investigation
  • Nippon Steel Corporation (NPSCY): U. S. Steel Board advances capital investments, announces new projects in Pennsylvania and Indiana
  • NiSource (NI) receives Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission’s approval for its NIPSCO Generation LLC (GenCo) declination petition
  • NuScale (SMR) Power discloses that on September 22, it entered into a Tri-Party Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy and CFPP LLC
  • Oklo Inc. (OKLO) conducted full-scale flow testing of a prototypical fuel assembly at the DOE’s Argonne National Laboratory
  • Oracle (ORCL): President Trump will sign TikTok deal today, according to NBC News
  • Owlet (OWLT) provided summary notice of proposed settlement of derivative actions
  • Pfizer (PFE): Highlights momentum in redefining standards of care in cancer at ESMO 2025
  • Phillips (PHG) in discussions with U.S. over technology import investigations, according to Reuters
  • Postal Realty (PSTL) appoints Steve Bakke as Chief Financial Officer effective on or about November 5, 2025
  • Redwire (RDW) awarded a contract from Axiom Space to develop and deliver roll-out solar array wings
  • RTX (RTX) awarded a $578 mln Army contract
  • SAP SE (SAP): EU Commission opens investigation into possible anticompetitive practices by SAP regarding maintenance and support services for its popular business management software
  • ServiceTitan (TTAN) Unveils Major Product Expansions Across AI, Financial Tools, Construction, and CRM at Pantheon 2025
  • SK Telecom (SKM) details future business and management plan
  • Snowflake (SNOW) announces Snowflake for Startups to help companies build, launch and scale enterprise grade AI innovations
  • Starbucks (SBUX) discloses it approved a restructuring plan involving the closure of coffeehouses, and the further transformation of the company’s support organization, as part of the Company’s “Back to Starbucks” strategy
  • Synopsys (SNPS) announces collaboration with TSMC (TSM) to deliver multi-die solutions, encompassing advanced EDA and IP products
  • Synopsys (SNPS) announces collaboration with TSMC (TSM) to enable 2D and 3D design solutions
  • Timken (TKR) has applied to cease being a 'reporting issuer' in Ontario, the only jurisdiction in Canada where it has that status
  • Vertex Pharma (VRTX) announces key advancements across kidney portfolio
  • Walt Disney (DIS) investors want more information on Jimmy Kimmel suspension, according to Reuters

• Upgrades:
  • Adient (ADNT) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $31
    
  • Ameresco (AMRC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $39
    
  • Amentum (AMTM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $35
    
  • Arista Networks (ANET) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $172
    
  • Baidu (BIDU) upgraded to Buy from Hold at DBS Bank, tgt $177
    
  • Chewy (CHWY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at MoffettNathanson, tgt $48
    
  • CME Group (CME) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $300
    
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank, tgt $600
    
  • CSX (CSX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $40
    
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein, tgt $48.50
    
  • Guardant Health (GH) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $75
    
  • Intel (INTC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Seaport Research Partners
    
  • Kodiak Sciences (KOD) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays, tgt $17
    
  • United Natural Foods (UNFI) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital, tgt $36
    
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink, tgt $456
• Downgrades:
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Clarksons, tgt $42
    
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotiabank, tgt $45
    
  • Lithium Americas (LAC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $5
    
  • Lululemon (LULU) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
    
  • TotalEnergies (TTE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg, tgt $64
    
  • Uranium Energy (UEC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $14
    
  • Wendy's (WEN) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Northcoast, tgt $7
• Others:
  • Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $183
    
  • Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $60
    
  • Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $30
    
  • Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $46
    
  • Becton Dickinson (BDX) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital, tgt $211
    
  • Biogen (BIIB) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $190
    
  • Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $32
    
  • Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $63
    
  • Coastal Financial (CCB) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $140
    
  • Core Natural Resources (CNR) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $105
    
  • Columbia Banking (COLB) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $28
    
  • Comerica (CMA) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $75
    
  • Contineum Therapeutics (CTNM) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink, tgt $20
    
  • Customers Bancorp (CUBI) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $89
    
  • Eastern Bankshares (EBC) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $23
    
  • East West Bancorp (EWBC) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $139
    
  • Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $20
    
  • First Hawaiian (FHB) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $27
    
  • First Horizon (FHN) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $25
    
  • Flagstar Financial (FLG) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $14
    
  • GFL Environmental (GFL) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
    
  • Hallador Energy (HNRG) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $23
    
  • Levi Strauss (LEVI) initiated with a Buy at Needham, tgt $28
    
  • MVB Financial (MVBF) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $35
    
  • Oklo (OKLO) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $117
    
  • Old National Bancorp (ONB) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $25
    
  • Oracle (ORCL) initiated with a Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn, tgt $175
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $27
    
  • Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $122
    
  • Prosperity Bancshares (PB) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $79
    
  • Ramaco Resources (METC) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $42
    
  • Renasant (RNST) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $45
    
  • South State (SSB) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $127
    
  • Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) initiated with a Hold at Texas Capital, tgt $348
    
  • Tutor Perini (TPC) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $85
    
  • Warrior Met Coal (HCC) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $75
    
  • Webull (BULL) initiated with a Buy at Rosenblatt, tgt $19
    
  • Webster Financial (WBS) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $78
    
  • Western Alliance (WAL) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $118
    
  • WSFS Financial (WSFS) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $67
    
  • Wintrust Financial (WTFC) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $166
    
  • Valley National (VLY) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $14
    
  • Zions Bancorp (ZION) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $64

• Econ Data (Friday):
  • 8:30 ET: August Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.5%), PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), and Core PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%)
  • 10:00 ET: Final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 55.4; prior 55.4)

• Earnings:
  • Monday (Sep 22)
    • Pre-Market: None
    • After-Hours: None
      
    Tuesday (Sep 23)
    • Pre-Market: AZO
    • After-Hours: AIR MU MLKN WOR
      
  • Wednesday (Sep 24)
    • Pre-Market: CTAS THO
      
    • After-Hours: FUL KBH SCS SFIX WS
      
  • Thursday (Sep 25)
    • Pre-Market: ACN KMX JBL SNX
    • After-Hours: BB CNXC COST
  • Friday (Sep 26)
    • Pre-Market: None
    • After-Hours: None