After Hours Report

The S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.5%) saw a meaningful extension of yesterday's rally as the potential for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran culminated in another session of broad gains. The DJIA traded above its 200-day moving average (46,698) but failed to close above the key technical level.

Equity futures signaled a higher opening following a Bloomberg report that President Trump told aides that the U.S. will withdraw from the conflict in two to three weeks, even if a deal has not been struck. However, that report was followed by a Truth Social post in which the president threatened continued bombing of Iran's infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.

Today's session progressed in a similar fashion in the sense that it remains unclear exactly where negotiations stand, or how close an off-ramp to the conflict truly is. Reuters reported that Iran denied requesting a ceasefire, while an Israeli report that negotiations are "not progressing in a positive way" saw the major averages give back a considerable chunk of their early gains during the early afternoon hours.

The market now awaits an address from President Trump tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET, in which Politico reported the president will likely announce a victory over Iran and state intentions to wind down military operations, while pressuring NATO allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

While the Iran situation continues to drive volatility, stocks steadily climbed from their intraday lows to end the session firmly higher. Oil retreated again today, which added support. Crude oil futures settled today's session $1.01 lower (-1.0%) at $100.14 per barrel, and continued to move lower after the session close.

Unsurprisingly, the energy sector (-3.9%) faced a sharp retreat, with all of its components trading lower.

The consumer staples sector (-0.6%) also finished lower as investors rotated into more growth-oriented holdings, while mixed strength in the financials sector saw it chart a flat finish.

Meanwhile, the broader market finished higher as the other S&P 500 sectors covered enough ground to weather the intraday slide. Mega-cap stocks were a point of strength again today, sending the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF 1.2% higher.

That helped the communication services sector (+1.6%) finish near the top of the leaderboard again as Alphabet (GOOG 294.90, +8.04, +2.80%) and Meta Platforms (META 579.23, +7.10, +1.24%) continue to rebound from pronounced weakness after a jury found the companies liable in a social-media addiction case last week.

The information technology sector (+1.1%) was another top-mover, with sustained strength across semiconductor names outweighing weakness across software stocks that saw Microsoft (MSFT 369.37, -0.80, -0.22%) finish as the only "magnificent seven" name that failed to chart a gain.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 2.8% higher, with memory storage names such as Western Digital (WDC 297.73, +27.24, +10.07%) and Micron (MU 367.85, +30.01, +8.88%) among the top-performing S&P 500 components.

Meanwhile, NIKE (NKE 44.63, -8.19, -15.51%) was the index's worst performer after topping earnings estimates, but weak guidance and admission that the company's turnaround efforts are taking longer than expected kept investors from buying the dip. Nike's underperformance did little to weigh down the consumer discretionary sector (+0.9%), which was supported by relatively broad strength and solid mega-cap leadership of its own.

In other corporate news, Eli Lilly (LLY 954.28, +34.51, +3.75%) made a sharp move higher after confirming the FDA approved its new weight-loss drug Foundayo.

Altogether, the stock market started the second quarter on a higher note, especially given the sharp losses that were realized in March. Today's strength was largely driven by geopolitical optimism, though the U.S. and Iran still appear to be far apart on negotiations. Attention now turns to President Trump's address tonight for further clarity on the path forward for U.S. involvement in the conflict and any potential timeline for de-escalation.

As a reminder, tomorrow will be the final session of the week, as the stock market will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

U.S. Treasuries endured some volatility to begin April, though the movement unfolded inside a narrow range, leaving the market with slim losses after three days of gains in most tenors. The 2-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.80%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.32%. 

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +3.0% YTD
• Russell 2000: +1.2% YTD
• DJIA: -3.1% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.0% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -6.0% YTD

 Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.4%; Prior -10.5%
• March ADP Employment Change 62K (Briefing.com consensus 42K); Prior was revised to 66K from 63K
• February Retail Sales 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from -0.2%, February Retail Sales, ex-auto 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.0%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed solid spending activity across most kinds of retail businesses. The strength of the report is apt to be diluted, however, by the recognition that it preceded the hefty increase in gasoline prices and the sharp decline in stock prices in March that are expected to keep discretionary spending in check.
• March S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Final 52.3; Prior 52.4
• March ISM Manufacturing Index 52.7% (Briefing.com consensus 52.3%); Prior 52.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it conveys an ongoing expansion in manufacturing activity coupled with an ongoing increase in prices for raw materials that works against the notion of the Fed cutting rates soon.
• January Business Inventories -0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +2.6%, FTSE +1.9%, CAC +2.1%
• Asia: Nikkei +5.2%, Hang Seng +2.0%, Shanghai +1.5%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -1.01 @ 100.14
• Nat Gas -0.06 @ 2.82
• Gold +132.90 @ 4812.40
• Silver +1.26 @ 76.13
• Copper +0.04 @ 5.65

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Alto Neuroscience (ANRO) Reports Topline Data from Phase 2 Proof-of-Concept Study of ALTO-101 and Highlights Pipeline Advancements...ANRO -6.0%
• Apollo Global Management (APO) and Athene Holding disclose preliminary estimates for Q1 alternative net investment income...APO +0.1%
• Borr Drilling (BORR) announces new contract commitments for four premium jack-up rigs...BORR flat
• Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) CFO Andy Cheung to resign; does not intend to initiate a search for a permanent CFO replacement; reaffirms FY26 revenue...CVGI +3.7%
• Franklin Covey (FC) Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results...FC +11.1%
• Greenbrier (GBX) increases quarterly dividend to $0.34/share from $0.32/share...GBX flat
• Penguin Solutions (PENG) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs above consensus...PENG +12.7%
• UMH Properties (UMH) proves Q1 operation update...UMH flat

Fair Value for Thursday, April 2:

• S&P 500: 6,620
• Nasdaq 100: 24,209
• DJIA: 46,808

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) expects Q1 total steel shipments to be approximately 220,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be C$(35)-(25) mln loss
  • Ares Management (ARES) lowers Q1 guidance for realized net performance income; reaffirms FY26 outlook
  • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) beats by $0.36, beats on revs
  • Conagra (CAG) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; lower FY26 EPS outlook
  • Dave & Buster's (PLAY) reports Q4 (Jan) results, misses on revs
  • First Majestic Silver (AG) announces 2025 mineral reserve and mineral resource estimates
  • MSC Industrial (MSM) misses by $0.02, misses on revs
  • nCino (NCNO) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY27 revs above consensus; authorizes $100 mln accelerated share repurchase program
  • NIKE (NKE) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revenue below consensus; expects Greater China to be down approximately 20% in the fourth quarter
  • NIO (NIO) reports March deliveries increase 136% yr/yr
  • PVH (PVH) beats by $0.51, beats on revs; guides FY27 EPS in-line
  • RH (RH) misses by $0.67, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY27 revs below consensus
  • Tilray (TLRY) reports Q3 results; beats on revs; confirms outlook
  • XPeng (XPEV) reports March deliveries increased 80% sequentially
• General News
  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says President Trump will address the nation tonight at 9:00 PM ET to provide an "important" update on Iran; President Trump told reporters that Iran war could end in 2-3 weeks
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in an interview, says U.S. will need to "reexamine the value of NATO" after the Iran war ends. He said there is "no reason" for Iran to have 60% enriched uranium (see 6:01 for comments from President Trump on Iran). Fox News
  • The U.A.E. is preparing to help the U.S. open the Strait of Hormuz by force. WSJ
  • The U.S. is in talks with Denmark over access to 3 additional bases in Greenland. NY Times
  • Iran says claims it requested a ceasefire are false, according to Reuters
  • President Trump threatened to stop sending Ukraine weapons unless Europe helped with Strait of Hormuz, according to FT
  • Emirates Global Aluminum halted operations at Al Taweelah smelter after Iranian attack, according to Bloomberg
  • Pentagon aiming to double its fleet of Air Force A-10 jets in the Middle East, according to NY Times
  • FBI will declare that the Chinese hack of US surveillance system was a major incident, according to Politico
  • US military presented a plan to President Trump to use ground forces to seize Iran's uranium, according to Washington Post
  • President Trump will say tonight that Iran war is winding down and other nations need to help open the Strait of Hormuz, according to Politico
  • Airbus (EADSY) unveils Skywise subsidiary, integrating Navblue and Skywise digital services solutions
  • Altria (MO): FDA fast track program for nicotine porches being delayed due to addiction concerns, according to Reuters
  • Amentum Holdings JV (AMTM) wins $406 mln UK SMR contract, advancing nuclear expansion
  • American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) files patent infringement lawsuit against Eposeidon Outdoor Adventure and KastKing Fishing Tackle
  • Ares Management (ARES) confirms it raised over $9.8 billion for leading opportunistic credit strategy
  • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) signs 120 MW power deal, raises outlook
  • AT&T (T) commits up to $2 bln to modernize emergency cellular network, according to WSJ
  • Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) acquires selective PDE10A inhibitor balipodect for the treatment of schizophrenia and other neuropsychiatric conditions
  • Boeing (BA) and Department of War sign 7-year framework to expand PAC-3 seeker production
  • Chevron (CVX) statement regarding exclusivity agreement with Microsoft (MSFT) and Engine No. 1
  • Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) statement regarding United States District Court victory in Churchill Downs Inc. v. Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority
  • CVS Health's (CVS) subsidiary, Omnicare, has entered into an asset purchase agreement with GenieRx Holdings LLC
  • DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) confirms that it has no exposure to the Drift Protocol and was not impacted by an alleged exploit affecting the platform
  • Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) proposes record €1 dividend, reaffirms growth outlook
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) confirms the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Foundayo for adults with obesity, or overweight with weight-related medical problems
  • GRAIL (GRAL) and Superpower partnering to expand early detection
  • Hershey (HSY) aiming to change chocolate in Reese's and Hershey's products. Bloomberg
  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) reports its Electronic Brokerage monthly performance metrics for March
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) confirmed the permanent Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System J-code for INLEXZO (gemcitabine intravesical system) is now in effect
  • Lucid Group (LCID): NHTSA confirms recall of 4476 vehicles for seat belt failure
  • Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported March gross revs +15% yr/yr
  • Microsoft (MSFT) announces $5.5 billion spend and new Microsoft Elevate programs to support every tertiary student, educator and nonprofit to power Singapore’s AI future
  • Microsoft (MSFT) in discussions with Chevron (CVX) and an investment fund over a Texas power plant. Bloomberg
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Estonian government interested in buying Skype from Microsoft, according to Estonian World
  • Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Jaguar Transport Holdings are partnering to expand freight capacity, improve local service, and unlock new growth opportunities
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Chipmakers in China claim half of local market, narrowing Nvidia's lead, according to Reuters
  • OpenAI closes $122 bln funding round at a post money valuation of $852 bln
  • Oracle (ORCL): Related Digital aiming to finalize funding for ORCL data center, according to Bloomberg
  • Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) COVID study halted after limited participation, according to Reuters
  • Rayonier (RYN) will maintain the Rayonier name after a thorough review of alternatives following its recent merger of equals with PotlatchDeltic, while also introducing a new corporate logo
  • SharonAI Holdings Inc. (SHAZ) announces 5 year $1.25 bln AI cloud infrastructure agreement
  • Shell (SHEL) in discussions with Venezuela to develop gas fields. Reuters
  • Stellantis (STLA) talking about options for building EVs in Canada with partner from China, according to Bloomberg
  • Stellantis's (STLA) FCA US LLC reports total first-quarter U.S. sales increased 4% versus the same period in 2025
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) co-founder pleaded not guilty in chip smuggling case, according to Bloomberg
  • Target Hospitality (TH) lands $550 mln data center contract, raises outlook
  • Tesla (TSLA) March registrations in Norway rise 178%, according to Reuters
  • Toyota Motor North America (TM) reported March 2026 U.S. sales of 211,617 vehicles, down 8.5 percent on a volume basis and down 4.9 percent on a daily selling rate basis compared to March 2025
  • Union Pacific Railroad (UNP) and Amtrak announce they have reached an agreement that will allow Amtrak to operate on a 5-mile segment of Union Pacific-owned track starting near Avondale, Louisiana
  • United Natural Foods (UNFI): Teamsters of more than 200 warehouse workers unanimously authorize strike
  • Vertex Pharma (VRTX) discloses it completed its submission to the FDA of its rolling BLA for potential accelerated approval of povetacicept for the treatment of immunoglobulin A nephropathy in adults
  • Vertex Pharma (VRTX) receives expanded labels for ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA from FDA
  • Warner Music Group (WMG) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Revelator
  • Willis Towers Watson (WTW) has completed the acquisition of FlowStone Partners, LLC
  • Xponential Fitness (XPOF): Kanen Wealth Management urges Xponential Fitness Board to initiate strategic review, including potential sale

• Upgrades:
  • Asana (ASAN) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital, tgt $7
  • Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $57
  • Banco Santander Chile (BSAC) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA, tgt $35
  • Disney (DIS) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James, tgt $115
  • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $92
  • Gerdau (GGB) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Itau BBA, tgt $4.60
  • Heineken (HEINY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt EUR85
  • nCino (NCNO) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $22
  • PJT Partners (PJT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $170
  • Suncor (SU) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at ATB Capital, tgt C$104
  • UnitedHealth (UNH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James, $330
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $94
• Downgrades:
  • Nike (NKE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA, tgt $55
  • Nike (NKE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $52
  • Nike (NKE) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $52
  • Phreesia (PHR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Citizens.
  • PPG Industries (PPG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $113
• Others:
  • Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $7
  • Amcor (AMCR) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $50
  • Americas Gold and Silver (USAS) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt C$10
  • Americold Realty Trust (COLD) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $13
  • ATI (ATI) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $175
  • Avery Dennison (AVY) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $200
  • Baidu (BIDU) initiated with an Outperform at BNP Paribas, tgt $161
  • Ball (BALL) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $72
  • Black Hills (BKH) initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg, tgt $77
  • Boeing (BA) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $250
  • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $85
  • BWX Technologies (BWXT) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $200
  • CACI International (CACI) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $725
  • Caris Life Sciences (CAI) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $27
  • Celestica (CLS) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna, tgt $375
  • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $9
  • Commercial Metals (CMC) assumed with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $74
  • Carpenter Technology (CRS) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $400
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) initiated with a Buy at Benchmark, tgt $500
  • Crown Holdings (CCK) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $124
  • Datadog (DDOG) initiated with a Buy at Benchmark, tgt $150
  • Entrada Therapeutics (TRDA) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald
  • General Dynamics (GD) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $400
  • GE Aerospace (GE) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $325
  • Graphic Packaging (GPK) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank, tgt $9.60
  • Hexcel (HXL) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $95
  • HII (HII) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $400
  • Howmet Aerospace (HWM) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, $240
  • International Paper (IP) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank, tgt $38
  • Leidos (LDOS) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $165
  • LeMaitre Vascular (LMAT) initiated with a Hold at Freedom Capital, tgt $113
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $650
  • Materion (MTRN) initiated with an Outperform at Baird, tgt $18
  • Microsoft (MSFT) initiated with a Buy at Benchmark, tgt $450
  • Mobileye (MBLY) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg, tgt $9.30
  • Northrop Grumman (NOC) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $800
  • Nucor (NUE) assumed with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $210
  • Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank, $225
  • Palantir (PLTR) initiated with a Hold at Benchmark 
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) initiated with a Buy at Benchmark, tgt $200
  • Palladyne AI (PDYN) initiated with an Outperform at Northland, tgt $10
  • Pelthos Therapeutics (PTHS) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $50
  • Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) assumed with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $300
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $60
  • RTX (RTX) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $200
  • Sanmina (SANM) initiated with a Neutral at Susquehanna, tgt $135
  • ServiceNow (NOW) initiated with a Buy at Benchmark, tgt $125
  • Sensient Technologies (SXT) initiated with a Buy at UBS, tgt $115
  • Silgan Holdings (SLGN) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $52
  • Snowflake (SNOW) initiated with a Buy at Benchmark, tgt $190
  • Sonoco (SON) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $63
  • StandardAero (SARO) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $32
  • Textron (TXT) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $92
  • Tidewater (TDW) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $80
  • TransDigm (TDG) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $1,200
  • Voyager Technologies (VOYG) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $35
  • Voyager Technologies (VOYG) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $21
  • Woodward (WWD) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $440

• Econ Data (Thursday):
  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 215,000; prior 210,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.819 mln), and February Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$55.8 bln; prior -$54.5 bln)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -54 bcf)

• Earnings:
  • Monday (March 30)
    • Pre-Market: FRMI
    • After-Hours: PHR
      
    Tuesday (March 31)
    • Pre-Market: FDS, MKC, SNX
    • After-Hours: PLAY, NCNO, NKE, PVH, RH
      
  • Wednesday (April 1)
    • Pre-Market: CALM, CAG, LW, MSM, UNF
      
    • After-Hours: PENG
  • Thursday (April 2)
    • Pre-Market: AYI, LNN
    • After-Hours: None
  • Friday (April 3)
    • Market closed for Holiday