Bond Market Update

Post-FOMC Slide Continues

• U.S. Treasuries ended the week with losses across the curve, deepening their post-FOMC retreat with longer tenors remaining at the forefront of the selling. The Friday session was fairly quiet as the market had no domestic economic data to digest while the overseas news flow was also limited. The Bank of Japan did not announce a rate hike this time around while expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of England receded after a solid Retail Sales report from the U.K. Treasuries tried to recover their initial losses during the first couple hours of trade, but they found resistance shortly after the 2-yr note inched into positive territory while longer tenors never made it that far. Midday trade saw some renewed selling that lifted the 30-yr yield right above its morning high, followed by a sideways drift into the close. Today's selling lifted yields back to levels seen at the end of the first week of September. In Washington, the House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution to fund the government through November 21, but the bill failed in the Senate, leaving the door open for a potential government shutdown. Crude oil turned slightly negative for the week while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.63, ending the week little changed.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.58% (+2 bps this week)
  • 3-yr: +2 bps to 3.57% (+4 bps this week)
  • 5-yr: +3 bps to 3.69% (+6 bps this week)
  • 10-yr: +4 bps to 4.14% (+8 bps this week)
  • 30-yr: +4 bps to 4.76% (+8 bps this week)

• News:
  • Minneapolis Fed President (non-voter) Kashkari spoke in favor of two more rate cuts before the end of the year.
  • The Bank of Japan announced a plan to sell its ETF holdings at JPY330 bln per year while J-REITS will be sold at a pace of JPY5.5 bln per year.
  • Softbank is reportedly reducing the headcount in its Vision Fund by up to 20%.
  • Spain's economy minister called on the EU to "engage" China to reduce the EU's trade deficit with China.
  • European Central Bank policymaker Centeno said that inflation risks remain tilted to the downside and that inflation below 2.0% can't be tolerated for too long.
  • UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America no longer expect the Bank of England to cut its bank rate before the end of the year.
  • Japan's August National CPI was up 0.1% m/m (last 0.1%), rising 2.7% yr/yr (last 3.1%). National Core CPI was up 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.1%).
  • New Zealand's August trade deficit reached NZD1.19 bln (expected deficit of NZD746 mln; last deficit of NZD716 mln). August Credit Card Spending was up 3.5% yr/yr (last 1.6%).
  • Germany's August PPI was down 0.5% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%), falling 2.2% yr/yr (expected -1.8%; last -1.5%).
  • U.K.'s August Retail Sales rose 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%), increasing 0.7% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.8%). August Core Retail Sales rose 0.8% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.4%), increasing 1.2% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 1.0%). August Public Sector Net Borrowing reached GBP18.00 bln (expected GBP12.80 bln; last GBP1.05 bln).
  • France's September Business Survey fell to 96 from 97, as expected.
• Commodities:
  • WTI crude: -1.4% to $62.41/bbl
  • Gold: +0.8% to $3706.00/ozt
  • Copper: +0.7% to $4.63/lb
• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: -0.3% to 1.1748
  • GBP/USD: -0.6% to 1.3469
  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.1191
  • USD/JPY: UNCH at 147.97
• The Week Ahead:
  • Monday: Nothing of note
  • Tuesday: Q2 Current Account Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$302.1 bln; prior -$450.2 bln) at 8:30 ET; flash September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 53.0) and flash September S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 54.5) at 9:45 ET; and $69 bln 2-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
  • Wednesday: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 29.7%) at 7:00 ET; August New Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 650,000; prior 652,000) at 10:00 ET; weekly crude oil inventories (prior -9.29 mln) at 10:30 ET; and $70 bln 5-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
  • Thursday: Q2 GDP -- third estimate (Briefing.com consensus 3.3%; prior 3.3%), Q2 GDP Deflator -- third estimate (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%; prior 2.0%), August Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus -0.5%; prior -2.8%), Durable Orders ex-transport (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior 1.1%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 238,000; prior 231,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.920 mln), August advance International Goods Trade Balance (prior -$103.6 bln), August advance Retail Inventories (prior 0.2%), and August advance Wholesale Inventories (prior 0.2%) at 8:30 ET; August Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 3.99 mln; prior 4.01 mln) at 10:00 ET; weekly crude oil inventories (prior +90 bcf) at 10:30 ET; and $44 bln 7-yr Treasury note auction results at 13:00 ET
  • Friday: August Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.5%), PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), and Core PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%) at 8:30 ET; and final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 55.4; prior 55.4) at 10:00 ET

Unable to Bounce

• U.S. Treasuries have dipped back to their opening levels after a brief slide to fresh lows in 10s and 30s. Meanwhile, shorter tenors are currently on the verge of hitting fresh lows for the day. Today's action has unfolded in relatively quiet fashion with the market failing to capitalize on its early bounce attempt. The intraday news flow has also been on the light side, but it is worth noting that President Trump said that he had a good call with China's President Xi and that he plans to meet with the Chinese leader at next year's APEC Summit in South Korea, followed by a visit to China. Barring a volatile finish, the 2-yr yield is on course to increase by two basis points for the week while the 10-yr yield is up eight basis points from last Friday's settlement.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.58%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.56%
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 3.69%
  • 10-yr: +3 bps to 4.14%
  • 30-yr: +3 bps to 4.75%

Inching Off Lows

• U.S. Treasuries trade at their best levels of the cash session after a steady rise over the past hour. The 5-yr note and longer tenors followed their lower start with a slip to fresh lows, but the 2-yr note resisted the pressure, and led the bounce that was eventually visible across all tenors. The 2-yr note has inched into positive territory since the cash start while 10s and 30s remain modestly lower. Equities have gotten off to a higher start with the S&P 500 (+0.2%) trailing the Nasdaq (+0.4%).
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: UNCH at 3.57%
  • 3-yr: UNCH at 3.55%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.67%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.12%
  • 30-yr: +1 bp to 4.73%

Pressure Persists

• U.S. Treasuries are on track for a lower start with longer tenors set to continue pacing the post-FOMC retreat. Treasury futures spent the early part of the night in a sideways range, slipping to lows once the focus shifted to action in Europe. The market attempted a bounce, but slipped to fresh lows in recent action. The overnight news flow featured the outcome of the latest policy meeting at the Bank of Japan. The BoJ left its policy rate at 0.50%, as expected, though two policymakers voted in favor of an increase. The central bank announced a plan to sell its ETF holdings at JPY330 bln per year while J-REITS will be sold at a pace of JPY5.5 bln per year. In Europe, Germany's PPI fell more than expected in August while the U.K.'s August Retail Sales beat expectations, weighing on expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of England. The U.S. session, however, will not see any data. Crude oil holds a modest loss while the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.4% at 97.69.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.59%
  • 3-yr: +2 bps to 3.57%
  • 5-yr: +4 bps to 3.70%
  • 10-yr: +4 bps to 4.14%
  • 30-yr: +3 bps to 4.75%

• News:
  • President Trump is expected to speak with China's President Xi this morning.
  • Softbank is reportedly reducing the headcount in its Vision Fund by up to 20%.
  • Spain's economy minister called on the EU to "engage" China to reduce the EU's trade deficit with China.
  • European Central Bank policymaker Centeno said that inflation risks remain tilted to the downside and that inflation below 2.0% can't be tolerated for too long.
  • UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America no longer expect the Bank of England to cut its bank rate before the end of the year.
  • Japan's August National CPI was up 0.1% m/m (last 0.1%), rising 2.7% yr/yr (last 3.1%). National Core CPI was up 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.1%).
  • New Zealand's August trade deficit reached NZD1.19 bln (expected deficit of NZD746 mln; last deficit of NZD716 mln). August Credit Card Spending was up 3.5% yr/yr (last 1.6%).
  • Germany's August PPI was down 0.5% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.1%), falling 2.2% yr/yr (expected -1.8%; last -1.5%).
  • U.K.'s August Retail Sales rose 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 0.5%), increasing 0.7% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.8%). August Core Retail Sales rose 0.8% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.4%), increasing 1.2% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 1.0%). August Public Sector Net Borrowing reached GBP18.00 bln (expected GBP12.80 bln; last GBP1.05 bln).
  • France's September Business Survey fell to 96 from 97, as expected.
• Commodities:
  • WTI Crude: -0.3% to $63.36/bbl
  • Gold: UNCH at $3679.80/ozt
  • Copper: +0.3% to $4.612/lb
• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: -0.4% to 1.1744
  • GBP/USD: -0.6% to 1.3481
  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.1178
  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 148.10
• No Data on Today's Schedule

Post-FOMC Slide Extended

• U.S. Treasuries finished Thursday with losses across the curve after quickly giving back their slim opening gains. Treasuries followed yesterday's post-FOMC retreat with a modestly higher start that faced resistance immediately after the open with solid economic data contributing to the early selling. Weekly Initial Claims dropped from their highest level since mid-2023 while the Philadelphia Fed Survey (23.2; Briefing.com consensus 3.0) showed an acceleration in manufacturing activity. Treasuries reached their lows about 90 minutes after the start, followed by a slow rise off lows in midday trade, though they never made it back to their starting levels. Today's selling lifted yields on 5s and shorter tenors to the midpoint of this month's range ahead of tomorrow's session that will be free of economic data. Crude oil fell back below $64/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.5% to 97.35.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.57%
  • 3-yr: +2 bps to 3.55%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.66%
  • 10-yr: +3 bps to 4.10%
  • 30-yr: +5 bps to 4.72%

• News:
  • House Speaker Johnson said that there are enough votes to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government through November 20.
  • Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the FOMC rate cut with a 25-basis point cut of its own, which was expected.
  • The Bank of England voted 7-2 in favor of keeping its bank rate at 4.00%.
  • Norges Bank lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% and forecast one rate cut per year over the next three years.
  • Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to make two rate cuts before the end of the year.
  • President Trump will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer today.
  • Germany's debt office confirmed that it plans to sell an additional EUR15 bln worth of debt in Q4.
  • Japan's July Core Machinery Orders were down 4.6% m/m (expected -1.8%; last 3.0%) but up 4.9% yr/yr (expected 5.4%; last 7.6%).
  • Australia's August Employment decreased by 5,400 (expected 21,200; last 26,500) and full Employment fell 40,900 (last 63,600). August Unemployment Rate remained at 4.2%, as expected, and August Participation Rate fell to 66.8% from 67.0% (expected 67.0%). 
  • New Zealand's Q2 GDP contracted 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected -0.3%; last 0.9%), falling 0.6% yr/yr (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%).
  • Eurozone's July Current Account surplus reached EUR27.7 bln (expected surplus of EUR34.6 bln; last surplus of EUR35.8 bln). July Construction Output was up 0.48% m/m (last -0.66%).
  • Swiss August trade surplus reached CHF4.009 bln (expected CHF5.220 bln; last CHF4.619 bln).
• Today's Data:
  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 245,000) following an upwardly revised 264,000 (from 263,000) in the prior week. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 6 decreased by 7,000 to 1.920 million.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims settled back from what appeared to be an aberrantly high level in the prior week, returning to an area that is more consistent with a job market where layoff activity is relatively low.
  • The Philadelphia Fed Index surged to 23.2 for September (Briefing.com consensus: 3.0) from -0.3 in August, with the new orders index climbing to 12.4 from -1.9 and the prices paid index dropping to 46.8 from 66.8. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this report is 0.0, so the September reading represents an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region.
    • The key takeaway from the report is found in the welcome combination of stronger growth and fading prices.
  • Conference Board's Leading Economic Index was down 0.5% in August (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) after a revised 0.1% increase (from -0.1%) in July.
  • Weekly natural gas inventories increased by 90 bcf after increasing by 71 bcf a week ago.
  • The U.S. Treasury sold $19 bln in 10-yr TIPS at a high yield of 1.734% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.20x.
• Commodities:
  • WTI crude: -1.2% to $63.27/bbl
  • Gold: -1.1% to $3678.40/ozt
  • Copper: -0.7% to $4.60/lb
• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: -0.3% to 1.1786
  • GBP/USD: -0.6% to 1.3551
  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 7.1092
  • USD/JPY: +0.7% to 147.89
• No Data on Tomorrow's Schedule