Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 15 increased by 5,000 to 219,000 (Briefing.com consensus 217,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 8 increased by 24,000 to 1.869 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it covers the period in which the household survey for the employment report is conducted, and with the continued low level of initial jobless claims, economists are apt to be expecting a fairly solid increase in February nonfarm payrolls.
• The February Philadelphia Fed Index checked in at 18.1 (Briefing.com consensus 20.5) versus 44.3 in January. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this series is 0.0, so the February reading is indicative of expansion, albeit at a slower pace than the prior month.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that new order activity decreased from January while the prices paid index and prices received index both increased from January.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: UNCH at 4.27%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 4.28%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 4.35%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.52%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.75%