Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Existing home sales decreased 4.9% month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.06 million) from an upwardly revised 4.29 million (from 4.24 million) in December. Sales were up 2.0% from the same period a year ago, which was the fourth straight monthly year-over-year increase.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that existing home sales are being suppressed by affordability constraints that are rooted in elevated home prices, which are tied to limited inventory, and elevated mortgage rates.
• The final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for February dropped to 64.7 (Briefing.com consensus 67.8) from the preliminary reading of 67.8. The final reading for January was 71.7. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 76.9.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakening in sentiment cut across groups by age, income, and wealth, and was attributed largely to worries about imminent price increases driven by tariff actions.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 4.24%
  • 3-yr: -4 bps to 4.24%
  • 5-yr: -4 bps to 4.31%
  • 10-yr: -4 bps to 4.46%
  • 30-yr: -4 bps to 4.70%