Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total retail sales increased 1.4% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%) following an unrevised 0.2% increase in February. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.3%) in February.
  • The complicated element -- and key takeaway from the report -- is that the strength has a lot to do ostensibly with getting ahead of the tariff actions, which is to say the strength may not be sustained. If there is a counterargument to that point, it is that sales at food services and drinking places were up a robust 1.8% in March after declining 0.8% in February.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 3.81%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.82%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.97%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.34%
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.79%