Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The Treasury Budget for April showed a surplus of $258.4 billion compared to a surplus of $209.5 billion in the same period a year ago. The April surplus resulted from receipts ($850.2 bln) exceeding outlays ($591.8 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted, so the April surplus cannot be compared to the March deficit of $160.5 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there was some relief on the deficit side of things with tax receipts swelling in April; however, the budget deficit at this point in the fiscal year is still 22% greater than in fiscal 2024.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +12 bps to 4.00%
  • 3-yr: +12 bps to 3.99%
  • 5-yr: +11 bps to 4.10%
  • 10-yr: +8 bps to 4.46%
  • 30-yr: +5 bps to 4.89%