Bond Market Update

Geopolitical Angst Calms Down

• U.S. Treasuries are a bit softer across the curve and less anxious-looking after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. That news has prompted a further decline in oil prices, which fell sharply yesterday after Iran staged a weak-handed response to the U.S. destroying three of its nuclear facilities. WTI crude futures are currently down 3.8% to $65.92/bbl after topping $78.00/bbl yesterday. That is a positive move insofar as inflation pressures are concerned. Today's session will feature the June Consumer Confidence report at 10:00 a.m. ET and a $69 billion 2-yr note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The focal point, however, will be Fed Chair Powell's semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, slated for 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Q&A period that follows. The Fed Chair will face questions about why the Fed hasn't cut rates since December and when it expects to cut rates next.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.84%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.79%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.90%
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.34%
  • 30-yr: +3 bps to 4.89%

• News:
  • President Trump says "Israel is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
  • Senate nearing agreement with House on $40,000 state and local tax deduction cap with lower income threshold, according to Axios
  • U.S. struggling to secure trade agreements with various partners ahead of July 9 deadline, according to Bloomberg
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (not a voting FOMC member) in an interview says Fed should wait to lower rates, according to Reuters
  • Central banks considering more gold, euro, and yuan reserves, according to Reuters
  • Supreme Court allows the Trump administration to deport illegal immigrants to countries where they are not citizens, according to Washington Post
  • ECB policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said that the ECB may still cut rates over the next six months despite a volatile price of oil
  • Germany's June ifo Business Climate Index 88.4 (expected 88.1; last 87.5)
• Commodities:
  • WTI crude: -3.6% to $66.06/bbl
  • Gold: -1.7% to $3336.20/ozt
  • Copper: +1.1% to $4.90/lb
• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.1607
  • GBP/USD: +0.8% to 1.3619
  • USD/CNH: flat at 7.1735
  • USD/JPY: -0.9% to 144.90
• The Day Ahead:
  • 08:30 ET: Q1 Current Account Balance (prior -$303.9B)
  • 09:00 ET: April FHFA Housing Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior -0.1%)
  • 09:00 ET: April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%)
  • 10:00 ET: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before House Financial Services Committee
  • 10:00 ET: June Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 99.0; prior 98.0)
  • 13:00 ET: $69 bln 2-yr note auction