Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• New home sales declined 13.7% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 700,000) from a downwardly revised 722,000 (from 743,000) in April. That was the weakest pace of sales since October 2024. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 6.3%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there is an ample supply of new homes for sale, yet overall sales were weak in May, with high prices and high mortgage rates crimping demand.
    • The median sales price increased 3.0% yr/yr to $426,600, while the average sales price increased 4.6% to $522,200.
    • New home sales month-over-month/year-over-year by region: Northeast (+32.1%/+48.0%); Midwest (-7.1%/-3.7%); South (-21.0%/-15.5%); and West (-5.4%/+8.9%).
    • At the current sales pace, the supply of new homes for sale stood at 9.8 months, versus 8.3 months in April and 8.5 months in the year-ago period.
    • The percentage of new homes sold for $399,999 or less accounted for 44% of new homes sold versus 47% in April. Homes priced between $400,000 and $799,999 accounted for 47% of new homes sold versus 43% in April. New homes priced at $800,000 or over accounted for 10% of sales in May versus 10% in April.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: unch at 3.81%
  • 3-yr: +3 bps to 3.79%
  • 5-yr: +3 bps to 3.89%
  • 10-yr: +3 bps to 4.30%
  • 30-yr: +4 bps to 4.88%