Bond Market Update

Waiting for a New Catalyst

• U.S. Treasuries had a quiet overnight session, and that quiet activity has persisted heading into the cash session. Treasuries are little changed across the curve, with the market seemingly taking a break to see what comes next in terms of a meaningful trading catalyst. The Israel-Iran conflict has de-escalated, Fed Chair Powell isn't committing yet to a rate cut in July, and the reconciliation bill is still hanging out there as a loose end that the president hopes to have tied up by July 4, yet the approaches by the House and Senate have yet to be reconciled. The May New Home Sales Report is out at 10:00 a.m. ET today, which is when Fed Chair Powell will begin day two of his semiannual monetary policy report with an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. More supply is also on the way with a $70 billion 5-yr note auction. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 98.11.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 3.80%
  • 3-yr: unch at 3.76%
  • 5-yr: unch at 3.86%
  • 10-yr: unch at 4.30%
  • 30-yr: unch at 4.84%

• News:
  • Some House conservatives are against the Senate's version of the reconciliation bill because they want larger spending cuts, according to New York Times
  • Fed Chair Powell to appear before Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. ET for day two of semiannual monetary policy report
  • Israeli intelligence says U.S. strikes caused "very significant" damage to Iran's nuclear facilities and are perplexed by leaked reports that suggested otherwise, according to Axios
  • President Trump will likely include tariffs in any trade deal with Canada, according to The Wall Street Journal
  • President Trump says he is with NATO "all the way" as leaders finalize his plan to spend 5% of GDP on defense, according to Bloomberg
  • China's Premier Li said that his country will transition from a major manufacturing power to a big consumer market
  • U.S. and Mexico consider import quotas related to the steel trade deal, according to Bloomberg
  • Bank of Japan policymaker Tamura is becoming a more vocal dissenter, calling on the central bank to "boldly proceed with adjustment" to policy
  • MBA Mortgage Applications Index +1.1% wk/wk, with refinance applications up 3% and purchase applications down 0.4%
  • $70 billion 5-yr note auction results at 1:00 p.m. ET
• Commodities:
  • WTI crude: +0.4% to $64.65/bbl
  • Gold: +0.2% to $3340.70/ozt
  • Copper: +0.4% to $4.89/lb
• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.1599
  • GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.3608
  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.1760
  • USD/JPY: +0.6% to 145.73
• The Day Ahead:
  • 10:00 ET: May New Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus: 700K; prior 743K)
  • 10:00 ET: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before Senate Banking Committee
  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -11.47M)
  • 13:00 ET: $70 bln 5-yr note auction