Bond Market Update

Digesting the OBBB

• Treasuries have moved off their best levels of the day, but not by much.
• The market continues to take a calm look at the Senate's proposed version of the "One Big, Beautiful Bill," which the CBO estimates will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade and which Elon Musk said is "utterly insane and destructive" (i.e., the version of the bill, not the CBO estimate).
• The June Chicago PMI checked in weaker than expected at 40.3 (Briefing.com consensus 43.4), which was a slight dip from 40.5 in May. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: unch at 3.74%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.70%
  • 5-yr: -1 bp to 3.82%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.26%
  • 30-yr: -4 bps to 4.81%