Bond Market Update

Updated: 30-Jun-25 12:08 ET
Keeping calm and carrying on

Digesting the OBBB

  • Treasuries have moved off their best levels of the day, but not by much.
  • The market continues to take a calm look at the Senate's proposed version of the "One Big, Beautiful Bill," which the CBO estimates will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade and which Elon Musk said is "utterly insane and destructive" (i.e., the version of the bill, not the CBO estimate).
  • The June Chicago PMI checked in weaker than expected at 40.3 (Briefing.com consensus 43.4), which was a slight dip from 40.5 in May. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0.
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr: unch at 3.74%
    • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.70%
    • 5-yr: -1 bp to 3.82%
    • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.26%
    • 30-yr: -4 bps to 4.81%
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