Bond Market Update

Home on the Range

• Treasuries enjoyed a rush of buying interest in the wake of this morning's data but have been drifting higher the past few hours and now trade roughly in the middle of the range between the overnight futures trade and the cash session.
• Stocks have traded with a positive bias, underpinned by a positive growth outlook that took root following the better-than-expected retail sales, initial jobless claims, and Philadelphia Fed Index reports.
• Today's data has nearly wiped out any expectation of a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting; meanwhile, the probability of a rate cut at the September meeting has been reduced to 55.7% from 70.3% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
• The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 98.72
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: +3 bps to 3.92%
  • 3-yr: +3 bps to 3.89%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 4.00%
  • 10-yr: unch at 4.46%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 5.01%