Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Durable goods orders were down 9.3% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus -11.0%) after an upwardly revised 16.5% jump in May (from 16.4%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%) after rising a revised 0.6% (from 0.5%) in May.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the sharp headline decrease was largely due to a drop in transportation equipment orders after a big jump in May, though nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft—a proxy for business spending—fell 0.7% after increasing 2.0% in May, reflecting a moderation after a solid rise.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: UNCH at 3.92%
  • 3-yr: UNCH at 3.87%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.98%
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.43%
  • 30-yr: +3 bps to 4.98%