Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total CPI was up 0.9% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) following a 0.3% increase in February. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.2% increase in February. With these changes, total CPI was up 3.3% year-over-year, versus 2.4% in February, and core CPI was up 2.6% year-over-year, versus 2.5% in February.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that headline inflation was driven by the index for energy, which rose 10.9% in March, and although core inflation was seemingly subdued in March, the concern is that the energy price shock will bleed through more to core inflation in April.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 3.77%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.79%
  • 5-yr: -1 bp to 3.91%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.29%
  • 30-yr: UNCH at 4.90%