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Updated: 20-Aug-26 08:58 ET
Cautious start ahead

Briefing.com Summary:

*30-Yr Bond gives back most of midweek rally

*Crude oil continues climbing

*Weak reaction to Walmart's (WMT) earnings beat

 

The stock market secured a modest gain on Wednesday with significant support from news-driven strength in the health care sector and a rally in Treasuries, which followed news that the Treasury will at least double the maximum size of its buybacks of Treasuries of longer tenors.

The announcement from the Treasury, which was made about 24 hours ago, has had limited staying power, considering the 30-yr yield (+5 bps to 5.24%) is now just two basis points below the level seen ahead of the announcement. Treasury futures faced some overnight pressure as oil climbed to a near four-week high at $89/bbl after President Trump said that Iran will face crushing economic pain. In addition, it was reported that a tanker was hijacked in the Gulf of Aden.

Given the overall turbulence, equity futures point to a lower start today with Walmart (WMT) down more than 5% despite beating quarterly expectations and raising its guidance. Investors will remain focused on geopolitical developments and their impact on the price of oil while also keeping an eye on the direction of Treasury yields, since an extension of this morning's increase would likely exert some pressure on equities too.

Overnight action saw a strong showing from stock markets in Asia, but the strength did not carry into the European session, where most major markets trade in the red.

This week has been light on economic data so far, with this morning's slate limited to weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for August. The latter showed an increase in the diffusion index to 47.4 (Briefing.com consensus 25.0) from 41.4 in July, reflecting an acceleration in the manufacturing activity in the Philly Fed region.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 decreased by 6,000 to 206,000 (Briefing.com consensus 206,000) from last week's revised total of 212,000 (revised from 209,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 8 increased by 18,000 to 1.799 million from last week's revised total of 1.781 million (from 1.777 million).

The key takeaway from the report is that even with the increase in four-week moving averages for initial and continuing claims, overall levels are not setting off alarm bells concerning increased layoff activity.

The Leading Economic Index for July (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior -0.2%) will be released at 10:00 ET.

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