Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market clawed back from steep early losses, with a tech-driven rebound lifting the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) back above their 50-day moving averages after briefly slipping below them at the open. Mixed strength in the broader market saw the DJIA (-0.7%) close with a wider loss, though it finished well off of its session lows and joined the S&P 500 in positive week-to-date territory. 

The session began much like recent ones, with mega-caps absorbing the heaviest losses and fresh hawkish Fed remarks further eroding expectations for a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool now places the odds of a 25-basis-point cut at 45.9%, down from 50.1% yesterday and 94.4% a week ago. Kansas City Fed President Schmid (voting FOMC member) signaled he is inclined to oppose a December cut, echoing comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (nonvoting FOMC member), who said he did not support the October move and remains unsure about December.

While the major averages faced losses over 1.0%, the technology sector showed resilience, dipping only slightly beneath its flatline. That resilience soon turned to exuberance in the midmorning, as chipmakers rallied, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reclaim their 50-day moving averages and move into positive territory for the day. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-0.1%), which also moved beneath its 50-day moving average this morning, held gains as wide as 1.2%, though chipmakers faced some pressure this afternoon and the index closed slightly lower. Micron (MU 246.83, +9.88, +4.17%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 190.17, +3.31, +1.77%) still managed to capture solid gains, while Microsoft (MSFT 510.18, +6.89, +1.37%) and Oracle (ORCL 222.85, +5.28, +2.43%) helped the broader technology sector (+0.7%) close with a gain despite the late pressure in semiconductor names. 

As many as seven S&P 500 sectors traded higher, though only three finished in positive territory. 

The energy sector (+1.4%) was the day's top performer, supported by a 2.3% rebound in crude oil to $60.08 per barrel following Wednesday's 4.1% slide. The real estate sector (+0.3%) managed a more modest gain, while the industrials and utilities sectors finished flat. 

Losses were relatively modest compared to early session levels, though there were a few laggards. 

The materials sector (-1.2%) saw a majority of its components trade lower, while the financials sector (-1.0%) faced pressure in its major banking names.

Mixed performances across mega-cap names saw the communication services (-0.8%) and consumer discretionary (-0.6%) sectors finish lower for the day but well above session lows. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF closed 0.2% higher. 

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) captured a gain, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) closed lower after a stint above its baseline. 

Despite some late-session weakness, the market's ability to reclaim technical levels and attract buyers in key growth areas helped stabilize sentiment. At face value, the mixed finish appears to be an underwhelming end to a tough week, but under the surface, there were signs of improving breadth and renewed dip-buying interest in semiconductors and other momentum pockets. Those dynamics helped keep the major averages anchored above support and left the broader market in a firmer position heading into next week, which will see NVIDIA report its earnings on Wednesday. 

U.S. Treasuries finished a bumpy abbreviated week with losses across the curve after sliding from their opening highs. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.61% (+5 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.15% (+6 basis points this week). 

• Nasdaq Composite: +18.6% YTD
• S&P 500: +14.5% YTD
• DJIA: +10.8% YTD
• Russell 2000: +7.1% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.7% YTD

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (-0.6%) remain mixed as the market enters the final half hour of the session. 

Politico reports that House Republicans are drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies. Humana (HUM 236.37, -0.37, -0.16%) and Elevance Health (ELV 326.44, -1.84, -0.56%) slipped below their baselines following the report, while UnitedHealth (UNH 322.00, -10.52, -3.17%) has lagged throughout the session. 

Elsewhere, Alibaba (BABA 152.18, -7.66, -4.79%) continues to chart session lows after Financial Times reported that a White House national security memo sys the company is helping China's military target the U.S.

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade mixed, a touch off of session highs as the market enters the final hour of today's session. 

The energy sector (+1.4) holds the widest gain today, supported by crude oil futures settling today's session $1.34 higher (+2.3%) at $60.08 per barrel. Oil prices slid 4.1% on Wednesday after OPEC announced it now projects global oil supply to match demand, after previously forecasting a deficit. 

The sector's largest component, Exxon Mobil (XOM 119.39, +0.60, +0.51%), holds a modest gain, while Valero Energy (VLO 182.78, +7.00, +3.99%) holds the widest gain. Valero has broadened its year-to-date gain to an impressive 49.1%, which is better than that of any of the "magnificent seven" names. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (-0.4%) continue to trade in a mixed fashion as the afternoon progresses. 

CNBC reports that the Trump administration is formally withdrawing a Biden-era proposal that would have provided passengers compensation for delayed flights.

Airline stocks, such as Delta Air Lines (DAL 58.59, -1.32, -2.20%), United Airlines (UAL 95.34, -1.83, -1.88%), and Southwest Air (LUV 32.76, -0.28, -0.86%), are under pressure today as airlines continue to navigate cancellation issues stemming from the government shutdown.

On the trade front, Bloomberg reports that President Trump will sign an order later today lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas. 

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) are back near their unchanged levels, while the DJIA (-0.6%) continues to underperform. 

The communication services sector (-0.8%) is at the bottom of today's leaderboard, falling back towards session lows from this morning. 

Despite a relative uptick across mega-caps today, the sector faces pressure from its largest component, Alphabet (GOOG 276.99, -2.13, -0.76%).

Meanwhile, Netflix (NFLX 1116.83, -37.40, -3.24%) is the weakest performer in the sector, falling back below its 200-day moving average (1130.77). The company is preparing a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 22.86, +0.72, +3.27%), according to The Wall Street Journal. Paramount Skydance's (PSKY 15.47, +0.10, +0.63%) $23.50 per share bid was rejected, but its integration strength and DTC momentum still position it as a resilient bidder.

Comcast (CMCSA 27.49, -0.48, -1.73%) is also reportedly preparing a bid ahead of the November 20 deadline.