Stock Market Update
01-Oct-25 09:15 ET
Futures point to lower open despite bolstered rate cut expectations
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -27.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -108.00.
The stock market is on track for a lower open this morning amid a federal government shutdown with no resolution in sight.
This morning's weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change Report (-32k; Briefing.com consensus: 40k) is particularly relevant since Friday's Employment Situation Report is no longer set to be released as the Labor Department is now in a news and data blackout.
Equity futures barely moved following the release, but the report has had an effect on the market's expectations for further rate cuts this year.
The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 100% probability of at least a 25-basis point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting (up from 96.2% yesterday) and now shows a 90% probability of at least another 25-basis point rate cut at the December meeting, up from 77.3% yesterday.
