Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 28 points below fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly higher note while markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for holidays. Hong Kong will reopen tomorrow while China's markets will remain closed through next Wednesday. Taiwan rejected the request for an even split of chip production in Taiwan and the U.S. Japan's Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in September (48.5) while South Korea's reading (50.7) returned to expansion. South Korea's September exports reached their highest level since March 2022 with continued strength in chip exports. The Bank of Japan will reduce its bond purchases in Q4 by about 11%. The Reserve Bank of India left its policy rate at 4.00% against expectations for a 25-basis point cut.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's Q3 Tankan All Big Industry Capex 12.5% (last 11.5%). Q3 Big Manufacturers Outlook Index 12 (expected 13; last 12) and Q3 Large Non-Manufacturers Index 34 (expected 33; last 34). September Manufacturing PMI 48.5 (expected 48.4; last 49.7)
  • South Korea's September trade surplus $9.56 bln (expected surplus of $7.81 bln; last surplus of $6.51 bln). September Imports 8.2% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last -4.1%) and Exports 12.7% yr/yr (expected 7.2%; last 1.2%). September Manufacturing PMI 50.7 (last 48.3)
  • Singapore's Q3 URA Property Index 1.2% qtr/qtr (last 1.0%) o India's September Manufacturing PMI 57.7 (expected 58.5; last 59.3)
  • Australia's September Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 51.6; last 51.6). September AIG Construction Index 12.3 (last 1.0) and AIG Manufacturing Index -13.2 (last -20.9). September Commodity Prices -0.1% yr/yr (last -5.0%)
  • New Zealand's August Building Consents 5.8% m/m (last 5.3%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -0.9%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: HOLIDAY
• China's Shanghai Composite: HOLIDAY
• India's Sensex: +0.9%
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.9%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH

Major European indices trade in the green. Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI (49.8) returned to contraction in September. The European Commission is planning to increase tariffs on steel imports to about 50%. European Central Bank policymaker De Guindos said that fiscal policy could result in higher yields in the EU. Meanwhile, Bank of England policymaker Mann said that keeping rates unchanged is the appropriate move, claiming that current policy is relatively loose.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's September Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (expected 49.5; last 50.7). Flash September CPI 0.1% m/m (last 0.1%); 2.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.2%). Flash Core CPI 0.1% m/m (last 0.3%); 2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.3%)
  • Germany's September Manufacturing PMI 49.5 (expected 48.5; last 49.8)
  • U.K.'s September Nationwide HPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.1%); 2.2% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 2.1%). September Manufacturing PMI 46.2, as expected (last 46.2)
  • France's September Manufacturing PMI 48.2 (expected 48.1; last 50.4)
  • Italy's September Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (expected 49.9; last 50.4)
  • Spain's September Manufacturing PMI 51.5 (expected 53.8; last 54.3)
  • Swiss August Retail Sales -0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.5%; last 0.9%) and September Manufacturing PMI 46.3 (expected 47.9; last 49.0)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%
• Germany's DAX: +0.4%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6%
• France's CAC 40: +0.5%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%