Stock Market Update

The stock market is on track for a higher open this morning after yesterday's action saw tech and mega-cap names lead a broad rebound. 

A positive reaction to Intel's (INTC 40.84, +2.68, +7.0%) Q3 earnings has the stock trading higher in the pre-market, keeping chipmakers poised for another day of leadership. 

Sentiment is improving around the trade situation between the U.S. and China after President Trump confirmed he will meet with Chinese President Xi (and other Asian leaders) next week, though the president has terminated all trade talks with Canada. 

The market will receive the delayed release of the September Consumer Price Index (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) at 8:30 ET, a crucial inflationary gauge, and especially so given the recent lack of data amid the government shutdown. 

Rate cut expectations have remained steady, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting and a 90% probability of an additional cut in December. 

In corporate news: 

• The Trump administration wants to speed up the regulatory process for data centers to connect to power grids, according to Bloomberg.
• Ford (F $12.80, +0.46, +3.7%) beat EPS expectations by $0.10 and beat revenue expectations. 
• Intel (INTC 40.84, +2.68, +7.0%) beat EPS expectations by $0.21, beat revenue expectations, and guided Q4 EPS below consensus, with revenues in-line. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.7%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7%, India's Sensex: -0.4%, South Korea's Kospi: +2.5%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.

In news:

• President Trump will meet with China's President Xi on October 30, right before the November 1 deadline for increased tariffs on imports from China.
• China replaced 11 Central Committee members with new officials who are seen as loyal to President Xi.
• China also approved its next five-year plan, focusing on technology breakthroughs and revitalizing consumption.
• Japan's top trade union will seek a 5% wage hike in the spring.

In economic data:

• Japan's September National CPI 0.1% m/m (last 0.1%); 2.9% yr/yr (last 2.7%). September National Core CPI 2.9% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.7%). Flash October Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (expected 48.8; last 48.5) and flash Services PMI 52.4 (last 53.3). August Leading Index 0.9% m/m (expected 1.3%; last 1.1%) and Coincident Indicator -1.3% m/m (expected -0.7%; last -1.8%)
• India's flash October Manufacturing PMI 58.4 (last 57.7) and flash Services PMI 58.8 (last 60.9)
• Australia's flash October Manufacturing PMI 49.7 (last 51.4) and October Services PMI 53.1 (last 52.4)
• Singapore's Q3 URA Property Index 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 1.2%; last 1.0%)

Major European indices are on track for a mostly lower finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: -0.2%, Germany's DAX: -0.1%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%, France's CAC 40: -0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.3%.

In news:

• Flash October Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from the region were mostly better than expected with the eurozone's Manufacturing PMI coming in at 50.0, representing no change from the prior month.
• Political turmoil is continuing in France with reports indicating that the Socialist party has threatened to file a no-confidence motion against the prime minster if their demand for higher taxes on wealthy individuals is not met.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's flash October Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (expected 49.8; last 49.8) and flash Services PMI 52.6 (expected 51.2; last 51.3) o Germany's flash October Manufacturing PMI 49.6 (expected 49.8; last 49.5) and flash Services PMI 54.5 (expected 51.1; last 51.5)
• U.K.'s September Retail Sales 0.5% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.6%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%). September Core Retail Sales 0.6% m/m (last 1.0%); 2.3% yr/yr (expected 0.7%; last 1.3%). Flash October Manufacturing PMI 49.6 (expected 46.6; last 46.2) and flash Services PMI 51.1 (expected 51.0; last 50.8)
• France's October Consumer Confidence 90 (expected 87; last 88). Flash October Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (expected 48.2; last 48.2) and flash Services PMI 47.1 (expected 48.7; last 48.5)
• Spain's Q3 Unemployment Rate 10.45% (expected 10.20%; last 10.29%) and September PPI 0.3% yr/yr (last -1.6%)