Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 16 points below fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note. Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi said that the primary balance target could be calculated over several years rather than annually, which would open the door to greater fiscal spending. She repeated that she would like to see higher tax revenues without tax hikes. Australia's debt retreated after the release of a strong jobs report for October, which comes just days after top Reserve Bank of Australia policymakers warned that the easing cycle could be over.

• In economic data:
  • China's October New Loans CNY220.0 bln (expected CNY460.0 bln; last CNY1.290 trln) and October Loan Growth 6.5% yr/yr (expected 6.6%; last 6.6%). October total social financing CNY810.0 bln (expected CNY1.23 trln; last CNY3.53 trln)
  • Japan's October PPI 0.4% m/m (last 0.5%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 2.8%)
  • Australia's October Employment Change 42,200 (expected 20,000; last 12,800) and full Employment Change 55,300 (last 6,500). October Unemployment Rate 4.3% (expected 4.4%; last 4.5%) and October Participation Rate 67.0% (last 67.0%). October MI Inflation Expectations 4.5% (last 4.8%)
  • New Zealand's October Electronic Card Retail Sales 0.2% m/m (last -0.5%); 0.8% yr/yr (last 1.0%). September Visitor Arrivals 2.9% m/m (last 2.4%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.4%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.6% 
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.7%
• India's Sensex: UNCH
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.5%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%

Major European indices are mixed. The U.K. reported only slight GDP growth for Q3, undershooting expectations. The market expects that the Bank of England will announce a rate cut in December and there is speculation that Chancellor Reeves will call for higher taxes when she delivers the Autumn budget statement in two weeks. Germany's economy minister warned that trade dynamics are expected to weaken significantly in 2026.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's September Industrial Production 0.2% m/m (expected 0.7%; last -1.1%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 1.2%)
  • U.K.'s Q3 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.3%); 1.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.4%). Q3 Business Investment -0.3% qtr/qtr (expected -0.7%; last -1.1%); 0.7% yr/yr (last 3.0%). September Construction Output 0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.5%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.1%). September Industrial Production -2.0% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 0.3%); -2.5% yr/yr (expected -1.2%; last -0.5%). September Manufacturing Production -1.7% m/m (expected -0.7%; last 0.6%); -2.2% yr/yr (expected -0.8%; last -0.7%). September trade deficit GBP18.88 bln (expected deficit of GBP20.80 bln; last deficit of GBP19.53 bln)
  • France's Q3 Unemployment Rate 7.7% (expected 7.6%; last 7.6%)
  • Swiss October PPI -0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.2%); -1.7% yr/yr (last -1.8%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.2%
• Germany's DAX: -0.6%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.7%
• France's CAC 40: +0.4%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.4%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%