Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) opened to solid gains as mega-cap and tech names rebounded from recent weakness, while pockets of weakness kept the DJIA (-0.1%) near its flatline. That weakness recently spread to today's outperformers amid a further dampening of December rate cut expectations, negating the bulk of this morning's gains. 

Alphabet (GOOG 294.27, +9.31, +3.27%) traded to a fresh record high this morning following the release of its Gemini 3 AI, with its gain keeping the communication services sector (+0.8%) at the top of today's leaderboard. While the stock remains a standout today, it has retreated over 1.5% from session highs. 

The information technology sector (+0.6%) has also ceded nearly half of its early gain, which came by way of strength in its chipmaker components. The midday profit-taking is particularly evident in the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which is now up a modest 0.9% after previously holding a gain that approached 3.0%. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 184.78, +3.42, +1.89%) still trades with a solid gain ahead of its earnings release this afternoon. 

Strength in the broader market is mixed. As many as ten S&P 500 sectors held losses at recent session lows, while five S&P 500 sectors now hold gains. Decliners outpace advancers by a roughly 8-to-5 ratio on the NYSE and a roughly 3-to-2 clip on the Nasdaq. 

Losses are modest for the most part, with the exception of the energy sector (-1.3%), which trades lower due to a lower price of oil as WTI crude finds resistance near its 50-day moving average (61.00), falling $1.49, or 2.5%, to $59.18 per barrel. Today's loss leaves oil just $1 per barrel above its November low with little help from a bullish weekly inventory report that showed a draw of 3.43 million barrels against expectations for a much smaller decrease.

On the earnings front, Lowe's (LOW 232.25, +12.68, +5.77%) trades sharply higher after beating earnings expectations, while Target (TGT 86.48, -2.05, -2.32%) trades lower after topping earnings expectations but missing on revenues. 

The market was recently hit with a surprise macro headline as the BLS confirmed it will not publish the October Employment Situation Report. The BLS also confirmed that the September JOLTS report will not be published, and the October JOLTS report will be released Tuesday, December 9. Meanwhile, the November Employment Situation Report will be published Tuesday, December 16. 

The continuance of the recent data vacuum weighed heavily on the market's expectations for another rate cut in December, which has been largely reliant on cracks in the labor market for support. 

The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 38.4% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, down from 50.1% a day ago. 

Investors now eagerly await the 2:00 PM ET release of the October FOMC meeting minutes for further insight on the Fed's projected path for monetary policy. 

Reviewing today's data:

• The trade deficit was $59.6 billion in August (Briefing.com consensus: -$61.0 billion) versus an upwardly revised $78.2 billion (from $78.3 billion) in July. That was the result of exports being $0.2 billion more than July exports and imports being $18.4 billion less than July imports.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it will factor favorably into the Q3 GDP report, given the positive contribution from the net export component.
• The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended November 15 decreased 5.2%, from a prior increase of 0.6%.