Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 36 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a broadly lower note. Japan's cabinet office approved an JPY21.3 trln stimulus package, which had been expected. This will be the largest stimulus since the pandemic and it is expected to boost economic growth by nearly 1.5% per year. However, JGB issuance in 2026 is expected to be down compared to 2025. South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of November were up 8.2% year-over-year with chip exports rising 26.5%.

• In economic data:
  • China's October FDI -10.3% YTD (last -10.4%)
  • Japan's October National CPI 0.4% m/m (last 0.1%); 3.0% yr/yr (last 2.9%). October National Core CPI 3.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.9%). October trade balance JPY0 trln (expected deficit of JPY130 bln; last deficit of JPY300 bln). October Imports 0.7% yr/yr (expected -0.7%; last 3.0%) and Exports 3.6% yr/yr (expected 1.1%; last 4.2%). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 48.8, as expected (last 48.2) and flash Services PMI 53.1 (last 53.1)
  • South Korea's October PPI 0.2% m/m (last 0.4%); 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.2%)
  • Singapore's Q3 GDP 2.4% qtr/qtr (expected 1.3%; last 1.7%); 4.2% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 4.7%)
  • India's November flash Manufacturing PMI 57.4 (expected 59.0; last 59.2) and flash Services PMI 59.5 (expected 59.7; last 58.9)
  • Australia's flash November Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (last 49.7) and flash Services PMI 52.7 (last 52.5)
  • New Zealand's October trade deficit NZD1.54 bln (expected deficit of NZD955 mln; last deficit of NZD1.384 bln). October Credit Card Spending 1.4% yr/yr (last 0.3%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -2.4%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -2.4% 
• China's Shanghai Composite: -2.5%
• India's Sensex: -0.5% 
• South Korea's Kospi: -3.8%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -1.7% 

Major European indices are on track for a lower finish to the week. Flash November PMI readings from the region's major economies were mostly disappointing with eurozone's Manufacturing PMI (49.7) dipping back into contraction while Services PMI (53.1) showed a slight uptick in the pace of growth. European leaders are discussing a new peace plan for Ukraine that was proposed by the Trump administration.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's flash November Manufacturing PMI 49.7 (expected 50.1; last 50.0) and flash Services PMI 53.1 (expected 52.8; last 53.0)
  • Germany's flash November Manufacturing PMI 48.4 (expected 49.8; last 49.6) and flash Services PMI 52.7 (expected 54.0; last 54.6)
  • U.K.'s October Retail Sales -1.1% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.7%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.0%). October Core Retail Sales -1.0% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.7%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 2.5%; last 1.7%). October Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP17.43 bln (expected GBP15.20 bln; last GBP19.89 bln). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (expected 49.3; last 49.7) and flash Services PMI 50.5 (expected 51.9; last 52.3)
  • France's November Business Survey 98 (expected 100; last 101). Flash November Manufacturing PMI 47.8 (expected 49.0; last 48.8) and flash Services PMI 50.8 (expected 48.4; last 48.0)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.2% 
• Germany's DAX: -0.3% 
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: flat 
• France's CAC 40: +0.1%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.3% 
• Spain's IBEX 35: -1.0%