Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a slightly lower open after a solid start to the week that saw some confidence restored to tech, AI, and other momentum names yesterday. 

Strength across the mega-caps briefly pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite back across their 50-day moving averages, though they ended up closing just beneath the key technical level. 

The risk-on disposition of the market was once again boosted by another round of dovish Fed commentary, which saw the market's implied probability of a December rate cut surpass 80%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Wall Street Journal reported that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's allies have essentially laid the groundwork for him to advocate for a December rate cut, despite the possibility of several dissents. 

Elsewhere on the macro front, the market will receive a sizable batch of economic data this morning, which includes the September Producer Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), retail sales for September (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), and Consumer Confidence for November (Briefing.com consensus 93.3). 

In corporate news:

• House Speaker Mike Johnson warns that most House Republicans are against extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, according to The Wall Street Journal.
• Alibaba (BABA 164.00, +3.27, +2.0%) reported Q2 (Sep) earnings of RMB 4.36 per share, which may not be comparable to the FactSet Consensus of RMB 6.03; revenues rose 4.8% year-over-year to RMB 247.79 billion vs. the RMB 243.75 billion FactSet Consensus.
• Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 193.50, -12.81, -6.2%) beat EPS expectations by $0.09, beat on revenues, and guided FY26 EPS in-line with revenues in-line.
• Google (GOOG, 331.72, +13.25, +4.2%) is increasing efforts to compete with NVIDIA (NVDA 175.20, -7.35, -4.0%) on artificial intelligence chips, and Meta (META 617.50, +4.45, +0.7%) is interested in using Google's chips.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.7%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.9%, India's Sensex: -0.4%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.3%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%.

In news:

• Softbank saw a continuation of its recent struggles, falling 10.0% to a level not seen since early September.
• Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi held an unexpected phone call with President Trump to discuss diplomatic relations with China.
• South Korea's Consumer Confidence reached its highest level in eight years in the November reading.
• South Korea's ruling party is expected to present the US Investment Act to the National Assembly this week.

In economic data:

• South Korea's November Consumer Confidence 112.4 (last 109.8)
• Hong Kong's October trade deficit HKD39.9 bln (last deficit of HKD50.2 bln). October Imports 18.3% m/m (last 13.6%) and Exports 17.5% m/m (last 16.1%)

Major European indices trade modestly higher. STOXX Europe 600: +0.4% Germany's DAX: +0.5% U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5% France's CAC 40: +0.5% Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3% Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%

In news:

• British Chancellor Reeves will present the Autumn budget tomorrow with the market expecting some additional streams of revenue, though room for higher taxes is limited.
• European Central Bank policymaker Nagel lamented stubborn food inflation.
• Discount air carrier EasyJet reported solid quarterly results while home improvement retailer Kingfisher raised its guidance.

In economic data:

• Germany's Q3 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr, as expected (last -0.2%); 0.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.3%)
• U.K.'s November CBI Distributive Trades Survey -32 (expected -29; last -27)
• France's November Consumer Confidence 89 (last 90)
• Spain's October PPI 0.7% yr/yr (last 0.3%)