Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market mounted a broad-based advance for the second consecutive session this week, sending the S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%), and DJIA (+1.4%) to higher closes back above their 50-day moving averages. 

The major averages wavered this morning amid weakness in the top-weighted information technology sector (flat). In particular, NVIDIA (NVDA 177.82, -4.73, -2.59%) struggled today following a report by The Information that stated Alphabet (GOOG 323.64, +5.17, +1.62%) is increasing efforts to compete with NVIDIA on artificial intelligence chips, and Meta Platforms (META 636.22, +23.17, +3.78%) is interested in using Google's chips.

NVIDIA later posted on X that "NVIDIA is a generation ahead of the industry," though the stock still finished as one of the worst-performing S&P 500 names. 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 206.13, -8.92, -4.15%) finished even lower, though it finished substantially improved from early session levels that saw the stock hold a nearly double-digit loss. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.2%) would go on to finish modestly positive, and the information technology sector finished flat after holding a loss wider than 1.0%. 

Meanwhile, the eight other S&P 500 sectors that finished higher all captured gains of 1.0% or wider, reflecting strong buying interest across the broader market. 

The health care sector (+2.2%) topped the leaderboard, as it has in many recent sessions that have featured weakness across tech, mega-cap, and momentum names. While that cohort improved throughout the session, it was not to the detriment of the health care sector, which traded in a steady range near session highs since noon. 

News that President Trump's initial health care plan includes an extension of ACA subsidies helped boost the sector, which saw its month-to-date gain surpass 10.0%. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+1.9%) captured a similar gain as all of its components traded higher, with homebuilder names a standout in today's trade as expectations for a December rate cut remained firm on the heels of notable increases on Friday and yesterday.

Strength in Alphabet and Meta saw the communication services sector (+1.6%) round out the top three movers. Only the energy (-0.7%) and utilities (-0.4%) sectors finished lower. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the smaller-cap Russell 2000 (+2.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.0%) also outperformed amid reinvigorated odds for a December rate cut. 

The CME FedWatch tool shows an 82.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction at the next FOMC meeting, down slightly from 84.4% yesterday.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran (voting FOMC member) told CNBC that he will not dissent at the next meeting in favor of a larger rate cut because there are other FOMC members who will vote to keep rates unchanged.

In other Fed news, Bloomberg reported that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as a frontrunner for the next Fed Chair nomination.

This morning's sizable batch of economic data came largely in line with expectations, which helped prevent an outsized move in the market's implied odds of a rate cut in one direction or the other. 

All told, the market solidified its rebound effort, with the major averages moving above a key technical level in their 50-day moving averages. Stellar breadth figures underpinned the advance (advancers outpaced decliners by a roughly 4-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a roughly 3-to-1 clip on the Nasdaq), while the outperformance of the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+1.4%) over the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.9%) highlighted a rotation into more value-oriented holdings. 

While the major averages secured a win in reclaiming their 50-day moving averages, some technical resistance remains overhead. Notably, the S&P 500 closed just beneath the 6,770 level, which was the peak level the index hit following NVIDIA's earnings release, before a strong pullback ensued. 

U.S. Treasuries climbed again on Tuesday, making for their fourth consecutive advance that sent yields on 10s and shorter tenors toward their October lows. The 2-year note yield settled down five basis points to 3.46%, and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.00%. 

• Nasdaq Composite: +19.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +15.0%
• DJIA: +10.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +10.6% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.9% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Retail sales were up 0.2% month-over-month in September (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after increasing 0.6% in August. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.3%, as expected, following a downwardly revised 0.6% increase (from 0.7%) in August.
  • The key takeaway is that gasoline station sales were a big driver of the monthly increase. Excluding gasoline station sales, retail sales were flat in September after increasing 0.6% in August, signaling a slowdown in consumer spending on goods. 
• The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3% month-over-month in September (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.1% decline in August. That left the year-over-year change at 2.7% versus 2.6% in August. The Producer Price Index for final demand, less foods and energy, increased just 0.1% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following a 0.1% decline in August. That left the year-over-year change at 2.6% versus 2.8% in August.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that inflation at the wholesale level is still sticky, highlighted by a 1.1% month-over-month increase in the final demand foods index, which was up 4.0% year-over-year, shedding light on why many consumers, seeing the pass-through at grocery stores, are not aligned with the thinking that inflation is being brought under control. 
• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 88.7 in November (Briefing.com consensus 93.3) from an upwardly revised 95.5 (from 94.6) in October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 112.8.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there was a further deterioration in the expectations index, with sentiment on business conditions, labor market conditions, and household income all trending negatively. That could portend a slowdown in discretionary spending activity. 
• September FHFA Housing Price Index (actual 0.0%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%)
• September S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (actual 1.4%; Briefing.com consensus 1.6%; prior 1.6%). 
• October Pending Home Sales (actual 1.9%; Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior 0.1%). 
• ADP says "For the four weeks ending November 8, 2025, U.S. private employers shed an average of -13,500 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report"