Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up 41 points and trading 0.7% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 188 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 132 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

The step up for the major indices has to do in large part with the recognition that NVIDIA (NVDA) has not taken a step back after its earnings report and guidance. Granted it wasn't the "blowout" report that investors have grown accustomed to seeing from NVIDIA, but it was still pretty darn good with revenue growth of 78% (data center +93%), Q1 revenue guidance ahead of expectations, and the company talking about amazing demand for its Blackwell processor. Shares of NVDA are up 2.9% in pre-market trading.

The latter has been a guiding influence for the futures trade, along with a healthy boost in Snowflake (SNOW) after its report, helping to offset the 3.0% decline in fellow Dow component Salesforce (CRM), which came out ahead with its Q4 results but issued disappointing guidance.

Still plenty of growth angst in the air amid tariff talks and efforts to cut government spending, yet the early focus appears to be the positive price action in equities. Today's key for market sentiment, however, won't be how the market opens but how it closes.

Soon enough, attention will shift to the slate of economic data today that includes the second estimate for Q4 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET, the January Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the January Pending Home Sales report at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.10% and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.30%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 106.59.

In corporate news:

• Ambarella (AMBA 84.05, +8.24, +10.9%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus
• eBay (EBAY 63.78, -5.36, -7.8%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
• Moderna (MRNA 32.21, -1.37, -4.1%): Trump administration contemplates pulling bird flu vaccine funding, according to Bloomberg
• Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH 25.45, +0.40, +1.6%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY25 EPS below consensus
• NVIDIA (NVDA 135.08, +3.80, +2.9%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; Q1 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 70.6% and 71.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points
• Paramount Global (PARA 11.00, -0.22, -2.0%): misses by $0.24, misses on revs
• Salesforce (CRM 298.20, -9.13, -3.0%): beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
• Snowflake (SNOW 186.38, +20.19, +12.2%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs; Issues Q1 and FY26 product revenue, non-GAAP operating margin guidance
• Sweetgreen (SG 20.59, -2.55, -11.0%): misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY25 revs below consensus
• Verizon (VZ 43.02, -0.16, -0.4%): FAA will soon cancel Verizon contract for air traffic control systems and give the contract to Starlink, according to Washington Post
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 10.60, +0.10, +1.0%): misses by $0.18, misses on revs

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note with Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.3%) hitting a three-year high before reversing. Japan's Nikkei: +0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%, India's Sensex: unchanged, South Korea's Kospi: -0.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%.
  • In economic data:
    • Australia's Q4 Building Capital Expenditure 0.2% qtr/qtr (last 1.1%) and Plant/Machinery Expenditure -0.8% qtr/qtr (last 1.3%). Q4 Private New Capital Expenditure -0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 1.6%)
    • New Zealand's February ANZ Business Confidence 58.4 (last 54.4)
  • In news:
    • Australia released weak capital expenditure numbers for Q4 ahead of next week's release of Q4 GDP.
    • China Securities Regulatory Commission has slowed approvals for U.S. IPOs of Chinese companies.
    • Bank of Thailand announced a surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 2.00%.
• Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note with automakers struggling after President Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Europe. STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%, Germany's DAX: -0.6%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.4%, France's CAC 40: -0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.0%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.3%.
  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone's February Business and Consumer Survey 96.3 (expected 96.0; last 95.3). January M3 Money Supply 3.6% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; last 3.5%). January Private Sector Loans 1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.1%) and loans to nonfinancials 2.0% yr/yr (last 1.5%)
    • France's January PPI 0.7% m/m (last 0.9%); -2.1% yr/yr (last -3.8%). January jobseekers 3.162 mln (last 2.957 mln)
    • Italy's February Business Confidence 87.0, as expected (last 86.8) and Consumer Confidence 98.8 (expected 98.4; last 98.2). December Industrial Sales -2.7% m/m (last 1.4%); -7.2% yr/yr (last -2.5%)
    • Spain's flash February CPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.2%); 3.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.9%)
    • Swiss Q4 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.4%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; last 1.9%)
  • In news:
    • Engine maker Rolls-Royce has bucked the trend in reaction to an improved outlook for the medium term and buyback news.
    • European Central Bank policymaker Stournaras said that it is too early to talk about a pause in the cutting cycle since rates remain restrictive.