Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 247 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value.

Early trading features a negative bias as investors wait on the latest tariff measures by the Trump administration to be announced tomorrow. There's also some carryover downside momentum in play after weak showing for equities in the first quarter. 

Treasury yields are sharply lower, reflecting safe-haven buying in front of the tariff announcements. The 10-yr yield is down nine basis points to 4.16% and the 2-yr yield is down six basis points to 3.85%.

The economic calendar today includes the final March S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 ET, and the March ISM Manufacturing Index, February JOLTS - Job Openings, and February Construction Spending at 10:00 ET. 

In corporate news:

• PVH (PVH 74.50, +9.86, +15.3%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; to repurchase $500 mln in 2025; intends to enter into $500 million accelerated share repurchase agreements
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 159.35, -6.49, -3.9%): bankruptcy effort for talc claims rejected by federal judge, according to Bloomberg
• Boeing (BA 169.52, -1.03, -0.6%): awarded $2.46 bln U.S. Air Force contract modification; Wing production impacting Boeing's efforts to increase 737 Max production, according to Air Current
• Tesla (TSLA 261.50, +2.34, +0.9%): car sales in France & Norway fall to lowest level in 4 years, according to Reuters

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mostly positive showing to start April. Japan's Nikkei: UNCH, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.4%, India's Sensex: -1.8%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.9%.
  • In economic data:
    • China's March Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (expected 50.6; last 50.8) o Japan's February Jobs/applications ratio 1.24 (expected 1.26; last 1.26) and February Unemployment Rate 2.4% (expected 2.5%; last 2.5%). Q1 Tankan All Big Industry Capex 3.1% (last 11.3%). Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Index 12, as expected (last 14) and Q1 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index 35 (expected 33; last 33). March Manufacturing PMI 48.4 (expected 48.3; last 49.0)
    • South Korea's March trade surplus $4.99 bln (expected surplus of $6.10 bln; last surplus of $4.15 bln). March Imports 2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.2%) and Exports 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 0.7%). March Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (last 49.9)
    • Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 0.6% qtr/qtr (last 2.3%)
    • Australia's March Manufacturing PMI 52.1 (expected 52.6; last 50.4). February Retail Sales 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%)
  • In news:
    • India's Sensex (-1.8%) was pressured by technology stocks due to tariff worries.
    • China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI (51.2; prior 50.8) showed unexpected improvement in March while Japan's Manufacturing PMI (49.1; prior 49.9) slipped deeper into contraction.
    • The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 4.10%, as expected, but also acknowledged tariff-related uncertainty.