Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up 75 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 299 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 361 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value.

There's a positive bias in early trading with contracts tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials sharply higher. 

Tech stocks lead the pre-open action after reports indicated that President Trump exempted items like smartphones, semiconductors, and some other electronics from reciprocal tariffs. Commerce Secretary Lutnick later said that the exemptions will be temporary while President Trump said that he will soon announce a tariff rate for semiconductors.

Treasury yields are lower. The 10-yr yield is down six basis points to 4.43% and the 2-yr yield is down four basis points to 3.91%.

In corporate news:

• Apple (AAPL 209.30, +11.15, +5.7%): President Trump's administration exempted items from reciprocal tariffs including smartphones, storage devices and some other electronics; preparing additional VisionPro headset devices, according to Bloomberg
• M&T Bank (MTB 157.94, -0.01, -0.1%): misses by $0.08; provides FY25 outlook
• Goldman Sachs (GS 502.00, +7.56, +1.5%): beats by $1.79, beats on revs
• Intel (INTC 20.33, +0.59, +3.0%): will soon announce deal to sell Altera to Silver Lake, according to Bloomberg
• KKR (KKR 105.00 +3.56, +3.5%): mulling deal to purchase Osttra for $3 bln, according to Bloomberg

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note with Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+2.4%) showing relative strength while India's Sensex was closed for a holiday. Japan's Nikkei: +1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.8%, India's Sensex: HOLIDAY, South Korea's Kospi: +1.0%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +1.4%.
  • In economic data:
    • China's March New Loans CNY3.64 trln (expected CNY3.02 trln; last CNY1.01 trln). March Outstanding Loan Growth 7.4% yr/yr (expected 7.3%; last 7.3%) and March total social financing CNY5.89 trln (expected CNY4.80 trln; last CNY2.23 trln). March trade surplus $102.64 bln (expected $74.30 bln; last $170.52 bln). March Imports -4.3% yr/yr (expected -2.0%; last -8.4%) and Exports 12.4% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; last 2.3%)
    • Japan's February Industrial Production 2.3% m/m (expected 2.5%; last -1.1%) and Capacity Utilization -1.1% m/m (last 4.5%)
    • Singapore's Q1 GDP -0.8% qtr/qtr (expected -0.4%; last 2.0%); 3.8% yr/yr (expected 4.2%; last 5.0%)
    • New Zealand's March Electronic Card Retail Sales -0.8% m/m (last 0.3%); -1.6% yr/yr (last -4.2%)
  • In news:
    • Weekend reports indicated that President Trump exempted items like smartphones, semiconductors, and some other electronics from reciprocal tariffs, but Commerce Secretary Lutnick later said that the exemptions will be temporary while President Trump said that he will soon announce a tariff rate for semiconductors.
    • China's trade surplus for March was bigger than expected thanks to strong export growth as shipments were likely rushed ahead of tariffs.
    • Shanghai Securities News speculated that China will announce additional monetary easing measures soon.
• Major European indices are on the rise with technology stocks showing relative strength thanks to the temporary tariff exemption on some technology products that was revealed over the weekend. STOXX Europe 600: +2.3%, Germany's DAX: +2.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.7%, France's CAC 40: +2.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +2.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.7%.
  • In economic data:
    • Swiss March PPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.3%); -0.1% yr/yr (last -0.1%)
  • In news:
    • Goldman Sachs downgraded its view of European stocks due to increased uncertainty and a weaker earnings outlook.
    • The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 25-basis point rate cut on Thursday.
    • Standard & Poor's upgraded Italy's debt rating to BBB+ from BBB due to improved economic buffers and a falling deficit.