Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market exhibited choppy action in the early going, but finished on a high note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 300 points higher than Monday's close, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each settled 0.6% higher than Monday. 

The upside bias was driven by ongoing momentum following solid gains of late. With today's move, the S&P 500 is less than 1.0% away from its 50-day moving average (5,613).

Early trepidation was related to uncertainty around tariffs after Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that the U.S. will be speaking to at least 17 important trade partners over the next few weeks. That figure doesn't include China, which indicated that there are currently no consultations or negotiations with the U.S. on tariffs.

In the afternoon, President Trump signed an executive order to prevent the cumulative application of overlapping tariffs on certain imported goods—such as automobiles and auto parts—when multiple tariff programs target the same item. The news was welcome after this morning's data reflected impact from tariff concerns in the form of dropping consumer confidence.

The April Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 86.0 (Briefing.com consensus 88.3) from 93.9 in March, pulled down by the lowest reading for the Expectations Index (54.4) since October 2011; meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 7.0% from 6.0%, hitting their highest level since November 2022.

Only one S&P 500 sector closed in the red while the financial (+1.0%), materials (+0.9%), and consumer staples (+0.8%) sectors led the pack. The energy sector was alone in negative territory amid falling oil prices ($60.42/bbl, -1.65, -2.7%). 

Earnings news since yesterday's close garnered mixed responses. General Motors (GM 46.94, -0.30, -0.6%) was a losing standout after reporting results and signaling that its initial full-year guidance does not contemplate the potential impact of tariffs.

Honeywell (HON 211.49, +10.83, +5.4%) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW 348.13, +15.93, +4.8%) were among the earnings-related winners. 

Reviewing today's economic data:

• March Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$162.0 bln; Prior was revised to -$147.8 bln from -$147.9 bln
• March Adv. Retail Inventories -0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.1%
• March Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.5%; Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.3%
• March FHFA Housing Price Index 0.1% ; Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.2%
• February S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4.5% (Briefing.com consensus 4.7%); Prior 4.7%
• April Consumer Confidence 86.0 (Briefing.com consensus 88.3); Prior was revised to 93.9 from 92.9
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the drop in confidence was guided primarily by the decline in consumers' outlook, which was driven by worsening views of business conditions, employment prospects, and future income. The drop in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups.
• March JOLTs - Job Openings 7.192 mln; Prior was revised to 7.480 mln from 7.568 mln

Looking ahead to Wednesday, market participants receive the following data:

• 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -12.7%)
• 8:15 ET: April ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 128,000; prior 77,000)
• 8:30 ET: Q1 Employment Cost Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%; prior 0.9%), advance Q1 GDP (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 2.4%), advance Q1 GDP Deflator (Briefing.com consensus 3.1%; prior 2.3%)
• 9:45 ET: April Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 46.0; prior 47.6)
• 10:00 ET: March Pending Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%; prior 2.0%); March Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.8%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%), PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior 0.3%), and Core PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.4%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +244,000)