Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] It is a slow-going stock market today, which has held to a tight trading range for most of the session.

It is a wait-and-see trade with respect to the U.S.-China tariff discussions this weekend. That is fitting because that wait-and-see attitude was also on display Wednesday at Fed Chair Powell's press conference. He, too, said the Fed is waiting to see more data and what it might indicate about the impact of the new administration's policies, namely the tariff actions.

Earlier today, Fed Governor Barr (FOMC voter) said he thinks the tariffs could lead to higher inflation and higher unemployment. That thinking would put him in the camp of not being in a hurry to cut the target range for the fed funds rate, which continues to sit at 4.25-4.50%.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now just a 17.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, versus a 73.3% probability a month ago of at least a 25 basis point cut. The probability of at least a 25 basis point cut at the July FOMC meeting sits at 60.0% today versus 91.1% a month ago.