Stock Market Update

Equity futures are little changed this morning following yesterday's session that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reach record intraday highs in the early going before slumping into negative territory for the majority of the trade.

The market has another round of earnings reports to peruse this morning, with Microsoft (MSFT 514.20, +1.63, +0.3%) and Meta Platforms (META 706.81, +6.81, +1.0%) set to kick off this week's mega-cap earnings after the close today.

Today's FOMC decision is not expected to result in a rate cut, though there is a possibility for dissenting opinions amongst the voting members, which could influence the chance of a September rate cut. 

In addition, the market will receive Advance GDP and GDP Price Deflator figures for Q2, ADP employment change data for July, and pending home sales data for June.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended July 26 decreased 3.8%, after a previous increase of 0.8%.

In corporate news:

• Hershey (HSY 186.50, +0.27, +0.1%) beat EPS expectations by $0.22, beat on revenues, and guided FY25 EPS in-line.
• Humana (HUM 251.50, +18.88, +8.1%) beat EPS expectations by $0.35, beat on revenues, and guides FY25 EPS and revenues above consensus. 
• Kraft Heinz (KHC 28.76, +0.20, +0.7%) beats EPS expectations by $0.05 and beats ton revenues. The company reaffirms its FY25 guidance.
• Starbucks (SBUX 97.37, +4.41, +4.7%) missed EPS expectations by $0.15 and reports a beat on revenues. Despite the EPS miss, U.S. and China comparable sales were not as weak as feared.
• Visa (V 346.25, -5.04, -1.4%) beat EPS expectations by $0.13 and beat on revenues. Consumer spending is described as resilient, though unchanged full-year guidance was seen as modestly disappointing.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly higher note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.4%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%, India's Sensex: +0.2%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%.

In news:

• A massive earthquake in the Pacific prompted tsunami warnings in China, Japan, and Hawaii.
• South Korean officials have arrived in Washington to discuss trade ahead of the August 1 deadline.
• Separately, President Trump said that India's tariff rate may end up between 20% and 25%.

In economic data:

• Singapore's Q2 Unemployment Rate 2.1% (last 2.0%)
• Australia's Q2 CPI 0.7% qtr/qtr (expected 0.8%; last 0.9%); 2.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.4%). June CPI Indicator 1.9% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 2.1%)
• New Zealand's July ANZ Business Confidence 47.8 (last 46.3)

Major European indices are mixed. STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2%, France's CAC 40: +0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1%.

In news:

• The market received a big batch of data today, including slightly better-than-expected Q2 GDP (0.1%; expected 0.0%) for the eurozone and France (0.3%; expected 0.1%) while Germany reported a 0.1% contraction.
• Germany's government approved a budget for 2026.
• Adidas and Mercedes trade lower after disappointing results.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's flash Q2 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.0%; last 0.6%); 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.5%). July Business and Consumer Survey 95.8 (expected 94.5; last 94.2)
• Germany's June Retail Sales 1.0% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 4.9% yr/yr (last 4.6%). Flash Q2 GDP -0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.4%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last 0.0%)
• France's flash Q2 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.1%); 0.7% yr/yr (last 0.6%). June Consumer Spending 0.6% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.1%) o Italy's flash Q2 GDP -0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.3%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%). May Industrial Sales -2.2% m/m (last 1.4%); -1.8% yr/yr (last 0.9%)
• Spain's July CPI -0.1% m/m (last 0.7%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.3%; last 2.3%). July Core CPI 2.3% yr/yr (last 2.2%). July Business Confidence -4.9 (last -5.2)
• Swiss July KOF Leading Indicators 101.1 (expected 97.9; last 96.3). July ZEW Expectations 2.4 (last -2.1)