Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 10 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note with Japan's Nikkei (+2.2%) hitting a fresh record with help from exporters that raised their guidance. There were no trades in Japan's 10-yr JGBs for the first time since March 2023. South Korea's President Lee will meet with President Trump on August 25. Taiwan is seeking to establish a strategic partnership with the U.S. in order to receive a lower tariff rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, as expected. The central bank also lowered its terminal rate forecast to 2.90% from 3.20%.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's July M2 Money Stock 1.0% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 0.9%)
  • India's July CPI 1.55% yr/yr (expected 1.76%; last 2.10%)
  • Singapore's Q2 GDP 1.4% qtr/qtr, as expected (last -0.5%); 4.4% yr/yr (expected 4.3%; last 4.1%)
  • Australia's July NAB Business Confidence 7 (last 5) and Business Survey 5 (last 7)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +2.2%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.3%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.5%
• India's Sensex: -0.5%
• South Korea's Kospi: -0.5%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.4%

Major European indices trade mostly higher. The U.K.'s unemployment rate remained at a four-year high of 4.7% in June. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment (34.7) improved for the third consecutive month but was still shy of expectations. Italy is aiming to reduce Chinese investments in strategic companies. The EU is preparing its 19th package of sanctions against Russia.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's August ZEW Economic Sentiment 25.1 (expected 28.1; last 36.1)
  • Germany's August ZEW Economic Sentiment 34.7 (expected 39.5; last 52.7) and ZEW Current Conditions -68.6 (expected -65.0; last -59.5)
  • U.K.'s June Average Earnings Index + Bonus 4.6% yr/yr (expected 4.7%; last 5.0%). June three-month employment change 238,000 (last 134,000) and June Unemployment Rate 4.7%, as expected (last 4.7%). July Claimant Count -6,200 (expected 19,7000; last -15,500)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.2%
• Germany's DAX: -0.1%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1%
• France's CAC 40: +0.5%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.7%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.3%