Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 24 points below fair value, as a hotter July PPI report has equity futures moving lower. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note, though Japan's Nikkei (-1.5%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.4%), and China's Shanghai Composite (-0.5%) reached fresh 52-week highs before reversing. Lenovo CEO said that the tariff impact has been limited and that his outlook for fiscal 2026 has improved. Australia's job growth improved notably in July, though there is still ongoing uncertainty about the likelihood of a rate cut in September.

• In economic data:
  • South Korea's July Import Price Index -5.9% yr/yr (last -6.2%) and Export Price Index -4.3% yr/yr (last -4.5%)
  • India's July WPI Inflation -0.58% (expected -0.30%; last -0.13%). July trade deficit $27.35 bln (last deficit of $18.78 bln)
  • Australia's July Employment Change 24,500 (expected 25,300; last 1,000) and full employment change 60,500 (last -36,700). July Unemployment Rate 4.2%, as expected (last 4.3%) and Participation Rate 67.0% (expected 67.1%; last 67.0%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -1.5%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.4%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%
• India's Sensex: +0.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: UNCH
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5%

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note, while the U.K.'s FTSE (-0.1%) lags. Thyssenkrupp reported a loss for Q3 and lowered its revenue and capital spending guidance for the year due to tariffs. Hapag Lloyd reported solid results for the first half of the year, but lowered its earnings forecast for the year. Norway's central bank left its policy rate at 4.25%, but hinted at some easing later this year.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's Q2 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.6%); 1.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.5%). Q2 Employment Change 0.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.2%); 0.7% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%). June Industrial Production -1.3% m/m (expected -0.9%; last 1.1%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 3.1%)
  • U.K.'s Q2 Business Investment -4.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 3.9%); 0.1% yr/yr (last 6.1%). June Construction Output 0.3% m/m, as expected (last -0.5%); 1.5% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.4%). Q2 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.7%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 1.3%). June Industrial Production 0.7% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -1.3%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected -0.3%; last -0.2%). June Manufacturing Production 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -1.0%); 0.0% yr/yr (expected -0.9%; last 1.0%). June trade deficit GBP22.16 bln (expected deficit of GBP21.70 bln; last deficit of GBP22.05 bln). Q1 Labour Productivity -0.6% (expected -0.5%; last 0.3%)
  • France's July CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%); 1.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.0%)
  • Swiss July PPI -0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.1%); -0.9% yr/yr (last -0.7%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.2%
• Germany's DAX: +0.4%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%
• France's CAC 40: +0.4%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.6%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%