Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 15 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note. Chinese chipmakers had a strong showing amid reports that NVIDIA is halting sales of the H20 chip to customers in China until a new product aimed for the Chinese market is ready. Japan's Ministry of Finance is expected to raise its long-term rate forecast to 2.6% from 2.1%. Weakness in Japanese debt has sent the JGB 10-yr yield to 1.61%, a level not seen since 2008 while the 30-yr yield set a fresh record at 3.13%. South Korea's Finance Ministry lowered its domestic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9% from 1.8%. Growth in 2026 is expected to reach 1.8%.

• In economic data:
  • China's July FDI -13.4% YTD (last -15.2%)
  • Japan's July National CPI 0.1% m/m (last 0.1%); 3.1% yr/yr (last 3.3%). July National Core CPI 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 3.3%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.1% (-1.7% for the week)
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.9% (+0.3% for the week)
• China's Shanghai Composite: +1.5% (+3.5% for the week)
• India's Sensex: -0.9% (+0.9% for the week)
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.9% (-1.8% for the week)
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5% (+0.2% for the week)

Major European indices are looking for a modestly higher finish to the week. DHL will temporarily suspend business shipments to the U.S. as de minimis duties are set to make a return at the end of next week. Germany's Q2 GDP was revised down to -0.3% from -0.1% in the final reading and Germany's Economy Minister Reiche said that the report shows the urgent need for action.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's final Q2 GDP -0.3% qtr/qtr (expected -0.1%; last 0.3%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 0.3%)
  • France's August Business Survey 96, as expected (last 96)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% (+1.2% week-to-date)
• Germany's DAX: flat (-0.3% week-to-date)
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1% (+2.0% week-to-date)
• France's CAC 40: +0.1% (+0.3% week-to-date)
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1% (+2.0% week-to-date)
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5% (+0.6% week-to-date)