Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 11 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note. Alibaba jumped to a four-year high after the company's CEO said that investment in AI infrastructure will be increased and the company will cooperate with NVIDIA to develop physical AI capabilities. Japan's manufacturing sector is contracting at an accelerating rate, according to the flash September Manufacturing PMI. Australia's Prime Minister Albanese will visit the White House on October 20. South Korea's finance minister is expected to meet with Treasury Secretary Bessent in New York.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's flash September Manufacturing PMI 48.4 (expected 49.5; last 49.7) and flash Services PMI 53.0 (last 53.1). August BoJ Core CPI 2.0% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.0%)
  • South Korea's September Consumer Confidence 110.1 (last 111.4)
  • Australia's August Monthly CPI Indicator 3.0% (expected 2.9%; last 2.8%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.3%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.4%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.8%
• India's Sensex: -0.5%
• South Korea's Kospi: -0.4%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.9%

Major European indices trade near their flat lines while France's CAC (-0.6%) underperforms with luxury names contributing to the weakness. German business sentiment weakened in September and Switzerland's KOF Institute lowered its domestic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9% from 1.5%. Denmark's central bank lowered its 2025 domestic growth forecast to 2.0% from 3.6% while the outlook for 2026 was cut to 2.0% from 2.3%. Sweden bucked the trend, as the NIER think thank raised its domestic forecast for 2025 to 0.9% from 0.7% while the outlook for 2026 remained at 2.6%.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's September ifo Business Climate Index 87.7 (expected 89.3; last 88.9). September Current Assessment 85.7 (expected 86.7; last 86.4) and Business Expectations 89.7 (expected 92.0; last 91.4)
  • Spain's August PPI -1.5% yr/yr (last 0.4%)
  • Swiss September ZEW Expectations -46.4 (last -53.8)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%
• Germany's DAX: flat
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1%
• France's CAC 40: -0.7%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1%