Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market's final September session has produced some choppy action so far, with the S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (-0.3%) currently seated just benath their flatlines. 

Five S&P 500 sectors trade in positive territory, led by the health care sector (+1.6%), which trades higher following an announcement from President Trump that Pfizer (PFE 25.01, +1.16, +4.86%) will sell its medications at lower prices in the U.S., with CNBC reporting the president is seeking similar agreements from other companies.

The information technology sector (+0.4%) also holds a nice gain, supported by NVIDIA (NVDA 186.38, +4.54, +2.49%) trading to a new all-time high, though mixed performances from other chipmakers have substantially narrowed the early gain of the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.1%).

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is flat for the day, as the consumer discretionary (-1.0%) and communication services (-0.9%) sectors face losses in their largest components. 

Separately, the energy sector (-1.3%) trades lower again today as crude oil prices have fallen $0.67 to $62.78, a decrease of 1.1%, and the financials sector (-0.9%) also faces a considerable loss.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 94.2 in September (Briefing.com consensus: 96.0) reinforcing expectations for additional rate cuts at the Fed's October and December meetings.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see a 96.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, up from 89.8% a day earlier, along with a 77.7% likelihood of another cut in December, compared to 68.8% yesterday.

Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson (FOMC voting member) stated in a speech this morning, "I see the risks to employment as tilted to the downside and risks to inflation to the upside," while Boston Fed President Susan Collins (FOMC voting member) reiterated support for a modestly restrictive policy.

Despite the recent support that heightened rate cut hopes have provided to smaller-cap stocks, both the Russell 2000 (-0.6%) and the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.5%) are trading lower today.

In other macro news, the Senate is set to vote again today on a resolution that looks to fund the government through November 21, though Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson have both expressed doubt that a government shutdown can be avoided.

Reviewing today's data:

• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September (Briefing.com consensus 96.0) from an upwardly revised 97.8 (from 97.4) in August. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 99.2.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumers felt much less positive about business conditions, with thoughts about job availability hitting multi-year lows. That consideration will underpin the market's thinking that another rate cut is at least coming at the October FOMC meeting.
• The August JOLTs Job Openings saw 7.227 million job openings, from an upwardly revised 7.208 million (from 7.181 million) in July.
• The Chicago PMI for September contracted to 40.6 (Briefing.com consensus: 41.0) from a prior level of 41.5.
• The FHFA Housing Price Index decreased 0.1% in July from a prior decrease of 0.2%.
• The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 1.8% July (Briefing.com consensus: 1.9%), from an upwardly revised prior increase of 2.2% from 2.1%.