Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 16 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly higher note with Japan's Nikkei (+1.5%) returning to its high from August after Prime Minister Ishiba resigned. He will continue as caretaker prime minister until a new leader is named. Japan's Q2 GDP was comfortably ahead of expectations while China's trade surplus for August beat expectations, though import/export growth missed estimates. China will reopen its bond market to Russian energy firms looking to raise funds, according to FT.

• In economic data:
  • China's August trade surplus $102.33 bln (expected surplus of $99.40 bln; last surplus of $98.24 bln). August Imports 1.3% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 4.1%) and Exports 4.4% yr/yr (expected 5.0%; last 7.2%)
  • Japan's Q2 GDP 0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.1%); GDP annualized 2.2% (expected 1.0%; last -0.2%). Q2 GDP Capital Expenditure 0.6% qtr/qtr (expected 1.3%; last 0.7%), Q2 GDP External Demand 0.3% qtr/qtr, as expected (last -0.8%), GDP Private Consumption 0.4% qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%; last 0.0%), and Q2 GDP Price Index 3.0%, as expected (last 3.3%). July Current Account surplus JPY1.88 trln (expected JPY2.60 trln; last JPY2.40 trln). July Economy Watchers Current Index 46.7 (expected 45.6; last 45.2)
  • Australia's July Building Approvals -8.2% m/m, as expected (last 12.2%) and Private House Approvals 1.1% m/m, as expected (last -2.0%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +1.5%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.9%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.4%
• India's Sensex: +0.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.5%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%

Major European indices are starting the week on a higher note. French Prime Minister Bayrou is expected to lose today's confidence vote after just nine months in office. Swiss National Bank President Schlegel said that the central bank will not hesitate to act, but the bar for the next cut is high. Italy's Finance Minister Giorgetti said that the government continues expecting 0.6% growth for 2025.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's September Sentix Investor Confidence -9.2 (expected -2.2; last -3.7)
  • Germany's July Industrial Production 1.3% m/m (expected 1.1%; last -0.1%); 1.5% yr/yr (last -1.8%). July trade surplus EUR14.7 bln (expected surplus of EUR15.7 bln; last surplus of EUR15.4 bln). July Imports -0.1% m/m (last 4.1%) and Exports -0.6% m/m (last 1.1%)
  • Spain's July Consumer Confidence 82.9 (last 76.1)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.3%
• Germany's DAX: +0.6%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1%
• France's CAC 40: +0.5%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.7%