Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to another mixed opening as investors assess another round of earnings reports from banking names and weigh geopolitical developments ahead of key inflation data.

Crude oil is currently up $1.75 (+1.9%) to $95.90 per barrel following a Reuters report that Iran is planning to increase attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the midterm elections. Encouragingly, Treasury yields are not following oil prices higher.

Meanwhile, futures tied to the Nasdaq Composite are lower as semiconductor stocks continue to face pressure, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index in the midst of a five-session losing streak. ASML (ASML 1,708.11, -9.65, -0.6%) is indicated lower despite a beat-and-raise earnings report, with the company noting it sees 2027-28 supply falling short of customer demand.

Still, there are a lot of moving parts ahead of the open. September CPI and core CPI will be released at 8:30 ET, giving the market an important update on inflation pressures, while the October Beige Book is due this afternoon. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns a 78.4% probability to the Fed keeping rates on hold at the October FOMC meeting. The latest MBA Mortgage Applications Index remained in contraction territory.

On the U.S. data front:

• 10/10 MBA Mortgage Applications Index -2.7%; prior -4.2%

Today's remaining economic calendar:

• 8:30 AM ET: September CPI; Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; prior 0.4%
• 8:30 AM ET: September Core CPI; Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%
• 2:00 PM ET: October Beige Book

In corporate news:

• Bank of America (BAC 51.60, -2.36, -4.4%) missed EPS expectations by $0.02 and missed revenue expectations.
• BlackRock (BLK 1120.00, +53.88, +5.05%) exceeded fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, reporting $205 billion in quarterly net inflows and ending the period with $15.5 trillion in assets under management.
• Morgan Stanley (MS 184.85, -1.79, -1.0%) beat EPS expectations by $0.10 and beat revenue expectations.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets finished mostly lower as concerns about AI investment spending and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment. According to Nikkei, Japan's benchmark logged a fifth consecutive decline.

In news:

• Brent crude traded above $106, adding to regional inflation concerns ahead of the U.S. CPI report.
• Chinese equities weakened despite stronger-than-expected trade and credit data.

In economic data:

• China's September CPI 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; prior 0.4%) and 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; prior 0.8%); PPI 5.0% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; prior 3.8%)
• China's September Trade Balance $133.53 bln (expected $116.80 bln; prior $119.09 bln); Exports 36.3% yr/yr (expected 25.5%; prior 25.0%) and Imports 31.0% yr/yr (expected 24.5%; prior 28.2%)
• China's September New Loans CNY1.080 trln (expected CNY1.025 trln; prior CNY60.0 bln); Total Social Financing CNY3.550 trln (expected CNY3.270 trln; prior CNY1.660 trln); M2 Money Supply 7.2% yr/yr (expected 7.4%; prior 7.5%) and Outstanding Loan Growth 4.8% yr/yr (expected 4.8%; prior 4.9%)
• India's September WPI Inflation 11.39% yr/yr (expected 10.18%; prior 9.92%); Manufacturing Inflation 9.76% (prior 8.37%), Food Inflation 8.14% (prior 5.67%), and Fuel Inflation 25.85% (prior 22.93%)

Equity Markets:

• Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.1%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.9%
• India's Sensex: -0.3%
• South Korea's Kospi: -0.4%
• Australia's All Ordinaries: -0.6%

European markets trade mostly higher, with technology shares rebounding after upbeat results from ASML. Higher oil prices and the upcoming U.S. inflation report remain points of focus.

In news:

• Technology and luxury shares have provided support, while renewed Middle East tensions have kept oil prices elevated.

In economic data:

• Germany's September WPI 1.9% m/m (expected 0.6%; prior 0.9%) and 8.7% yr/yr (prior 6.8%)
• Spain's September CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.3%; prior 0.7%) and 4.9% yr/yr (expected 4.9%; prior 4.3%); Core CPI 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; prior 2.9%); HICP 0.6% m/m (expected 0.6%; prior 0.7%) and 5.0% yr/yr (expected 5.0%; prior 4.6%)

Equity Markets:

• STOXX Europe 600 : +0.5%
• Germany's DAX : +0.6%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100 : +0.3%
• France's CAC 40 : +0.6%
• Italy's FTSE MIB : 0.0%
• Spain's IBEX 35 : +0.5%