Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after a winning session for stocks yesterday.

Solid leadership from tech and mega-cap names and strength in the broader market helped the S&P 500 cross back above its 50-day moving average. However, the index failed to close above the technical level. Stocks saw some profit-taking in the afternoon following the release of the January FOMC minutes, which had a hawkish tilt as several participants noted that a rate hike could be appropriate if inflation continues to linger above target. 

Oil prices rose considerably yesterday and are charting a higher path again today amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. CBS News reports that President Trump's national security team advised him that the U.S. military is ready for potential strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend, but he has not yet made a final decision.

Meanwhile, investors have plenty of earnings releases to assess this morning, including that of Walmart (WMT 122.38, -4.24, -3.4%), which slides on disappointing guidance after a stellar start to 2026. 

In corporate news:

• OpenAI funding could top $100 billion, according to Bloomberg. 
• DoorDash (DASH 190.00, +16.62, +9.6%) reported revenues in line and reported adjusted EBITDA above the midpoint of guidance; Q4 total orders grew 32% yr/yr to 903 million.
• eBay (EBAY 88.50, +6.32, +7.7%)  beat EPS expectations by $0.06, beat on revenues, and guided Q1 EPS above consensus with revenues above consensus. The company increased its dividend and authorised a $2 billion increase to share repurchase program to acquire Depop
• Walmart (WMT 122.38, -4.24, -3.4%) beat EPS expectations by $0.01 and reported revenues in-line. The company guided Q1 and FY27 EPS below expectations and authorized a $30 billion share-repurchase program.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mostly higher showing on Thursday while markets in China and Hong Kong remained closed for Lunar New Year. Japan's Nikkei: +0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: CLOSED, China's Shanghai Composite: CLOSED, India's Sensex: -1.5%, South Korea's Kospi: +3.1%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.8%.

In news:

• South Korea's Kospi (+3.1%) reopened after this week's closure, vaulting to a fresh record high with help from relative strength in Samsung Electronics.
• Japan reported a big jump in Core Machinery Orders for December (+19.1% m/m; expected 5.1%), though it will be interesting to see if the growth is sustained in the coming months.

In economic data:

• Japan's December Core Machinery Orders 19.1% m/m (expected 5.1%; last -11.0%); 16.8% yr/yr (expected 3.9%; last -6.4%)
• South Korea's January trade surplus $8.72 bln (expected surplus of $8.74 bln; last surplus of $12.17 bln). January Imports 11.6% yr/yr (expected 11.7%; last 4.6%) and Exports 33.8% yr/yr (expected 33.9%; last 13.3%)
• Australia's January Employment Change 17,800 (expected 20,000; last 68,500) and full employment change 50,500 (last 56,900). January Unemployment Rate 4.1% (expected 4.2%; last 4.1%) and Participation Rate 66.7% (expected 66.8%; last 68.5%)

Major European indices trade in the red. STOXX Europe 600: -0.6%, Germany's DAX: -0.9%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%, France's CAC 40: -0.8%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.8%.

In news:

• Rio Tinto reported good results while Airbus beat Q4 expectations but issued cautious delivery guidance for the year.
• Air France beat expectations thanks to strong cost controls. '
• European Central Bank President Lagarde told other ECB policymakers that she remains focused on her job amid recent reports that she will leave her post before the end of her term.
• The ECB's latest Economic Bulletin noted that the central bank needs to ensure that inflation stabilizes at the 2.0% target in the medium term.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's December Current Account surplus EUR14.6 bln (expected surplus of EUR9.8 bln; last surplus of EUR8.9 bln). December Construction Output 0.88% m/m (last -1.54%)
• U.K.'s February CBI Industrial Trends Orders -28, as expected (last -30)
• Spain's December trade deficit EUR5.57 bln (last deficit of EUR5.68 bln)
• Swiss January trade surplus CHF3.818 bln (last surplus of CHF934 mln). Q4 Industrial Production -0.7% yr/yr (last 2.0%)