Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a slightly lower opening this morning after the major averages faced a modest retreat in yesterday's session amid weak participation in the broader market and a mixed showing from its weightiest components. 

This morning features a consequential batch of economic data, which will feature the advance Q4 GDP reading (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%) and the December Personal Income/Outlays report, which includes the Fed's preferred inflation gauge in the PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). Notably, Fed commentary has had a hawkish tilt recently due to inflation concerns, though the market's implied expectations of the Fed's policy path remain little changed. 

Additionally, this morning could bring about a ruling from the Supreme Court on the legality of President Trump's IEEPA tariffs. 

Tensions remain high on the geopolitical front, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that President Trump is weighing an initial strike on Iran to get the country to comply with his nuclear demands, a development that has sent oil prices higher throughout the week. 

In corporate news:

• Amazon's (AMZN 204.72, -0.14, -0.0%) cloud unit had two outages due to errors involving its own artificial intelligence tools, according to Financial Times.
• A spokesperson for Blue Owl Capital (OWL 11.18, -0.40, -3.5%) says the company is not halting investor liquidity, according to Reuters. 
• Newmont Corporation (NEM 121.00, -4.40, -3.5%) beat EPS expectations by $0.47 and beat revenue expectations. 
• NVIDIA (NVDA 186.91, -0.99, -0.5%) is close to completing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, which will replace a $100 billion investment that was pledged last year, according to Financial Times.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mixed showing to end the week with South Korea's Kospi (+2.3%) reaching another new record while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-1.1%) retreated after returning from this week's holiday closure. Japan's Nikkei: -1.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: CLOSED, India's Sensex: +0.4%, South Korea's Kospi: +2.3%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.

In news:

• Japan's CPI decelerated in January with Core CPI increasing at its slowest pace in two years.
• However, flash Manufacturing PMI for February (52.8) showed accelerating activity.
• Indonesia finalized its trade agreement with the U.S.
• Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% while Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut its rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%.

In economic data:

• Japan's January National CPI -0.2% m/m (last -0.2%); 1.5% yr/yr (last 2.1%). National Core CPI 2.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.4%). Flash February Manufacturing PMI 52.8 (expected 51.3; last 51.5) and flash Services PMI 53.8 (last 53.7)
• Hong Kong's January Unemployment Rate 3.9% (last 3.8%)
• Australia's flash February Manufacturing PMI 51.5 (last 52.3) and flash Services PMI 52.2 (last 52.3)
• New Zealand's January trade deficit NZD519 mln (expected deficit of NZD745 mln; last deficit of NZD88 mln)
• India's flash February Manufacturing PMI 57.5 (last 55.4) and flash Services PMI 58.4 (last 58.5)

Major European indices are seeking a modestly higher finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.5%, France's CAC 40: +0.8%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.9%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.4%.

In news:

• Flash February Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from the region's major economies remained unimpressive for another month while readings from the U.K. outperformed.
• The U.K. also reported strong retail sales growth for January.
• European Central Bank President Lagarde repeated that she intends to serve through 2027 amid reports that she is looking to leave her post to get involved in shaping the next presidential election in France.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's flash February Manufacturing PMI 50.8 (expected 49.9; last 49.5) and flash Services PMI 51.8 (expected 51.9; last 51.6)
• Germany's January PPI -0.6% m/m (expected 0.3%; last -0.2%); -3.0% yr/yr (expected -2.1%; last -2.5%). Flash February Manufacturing PMI 50.7 (expected 49.6; last 49.1) and flash Services PMI 53.4 (expected 52.4; last 52.4)
• U.K.'s January Retail Sales 1.8% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.4%); 4.5% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; last 1.9%). January Core Retail Sales 2.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.3%); 5.5% yr/yr (expected 3.6%; last 2.5%). February flash Manufacturing PMI 52.0 (expected 51.5; last 51.8) and flash Services PMI 53.9 (expected 53.5; last 54.0)
• France's flash February Manufacturing PMI 49.9 (expected 50.9; last 51.2) and flash Services PMI 49.6 (expected 49.1; last 48.4)